IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pes/ierequ/v8y2013i4p25-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants Of Business Cycles Synchronization In The European Union And The Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Krzysztof Beck

    (Lazarski University, Poland)

Abstract

Further economic and monetary integration in Europe is currently on hold due to the crisis and even questions about the possible exile of Greece. Especially in those conditions, it is important, to see whether integrated Europe can handle future problems and if economic and monetary integration can be helpful or rather more problematic. The main aim of this paper is to check to what degree business cycles are synchronized in the Eurozone and the European Union and what the main determinants of business cycles synchronization are. To achieve this, the following steps have been taken. Firstly, we turn to optimum currency area theory, to see what conditions need to be met, if the European Union and the euro area can use common monetary policy to deal with some economic shocks. Then, all necessary methodological explanations are presented. Later on, the preliminary data analysis is employed to see how business cycles and their determinants were acting during the last 20 years. Finally, panel data analysis is used to check how those determinants actually influence business cycles synchronization. The main finding of the article is that even though business cycles synchronization has been progressing in the European Union and the euro area so does the specialization – divergence in production structure. This may result in less synchronized business cycles in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Beck, 2013. "Determinants Of Business Cycles Synchronization In The European Union And The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 25-48, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:8:y:2013:i:4:p:25-48
    DOI: 10.12775/EQUIL.2013.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/EQUIL.2013.025
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.12775/EQUIL.2013.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horvath, Roman & Komárek, Luboš, 2002. "Optimum Currency Area Theory : An Approach For Thinking About Monetary Integration," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 647, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. George S. Tavlas, 2004. "Benefits and Costs of Entering the Eurozone," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 89-106, Spring/Su.
    3. Thierry Warin & Phanindra V. Wunnava & Hubert P. Janicki, 2009. "Testing Mundell's Intuition of Endogenous OCA Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 74-86, February.
    4. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2002. "ìNew" Views on the Optimum Currency Area Theory: What is EMU Telling US?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 140, Royal Economic Society.
    5. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    6. George S. Tavlas, 1993. "The ‘New’ Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 663-685, November.
    7. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Azali, M., 2010. "The endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area criteria in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 165-170, January.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    11. Ian Babetskii, 2004. "EU Enlargement and Endogeneity of some OCA Criteria: Evidence from the CEECs," Working Papers 2004/02, Czech National Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    2. Pedro Oliveira, Maria Paula Fontoura, Nuno Sobreira, 2023. "Symmetry Of Demand And Supply Shocks In The Eurozone," Working Papers REM 2023/0275, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Krzysztof Beck, 2022. "Macroeconomic policy coordination and the European business cycle: Accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1095-1114, October.
    5. Ngozi E. Egbuna & Maimuna John-Sowe & Santigie M. Kargbo (PhD) & Sani Bawa (PhD) & Ibrahima Diallo & Isatou Mendy, 2020. "Business Cycle Synchronisation In The Ecowas Region," Working Papers 18, West African Monetary Institute.
    6. Bąk Henryk & Maciejewski Sebastian, 2015. "Endogeneity and Specialization in the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 46(1), pages 7-40, June.
    7. Wojciech Grabowski, 2019. "Givers or Recipients? Co-Movements between Stock Markets of CEE-3 and Developed Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-24, November.
    8. Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh & Soo Y. Chua, 2024. "Business Cycle Synchronisation and Regional Migration: Testing the OCA Criteria in the West African Region," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 67(1), pages 97-108, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Krzysztof Beck, 2013. "Structural Similarity as a Determinant of Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union: A Robust Analysis," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 5(2).
    2. Mulder, C.B., 1986. "Testing Korteweg's rational expectations model for a small open economy," Other publications TiSEM c52e6c80-834d-49c7-ae6a-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Jun, Bogang & Kim, Tai-Yoo, 2015. "A neo-Schumpeterian perspective on the analytical macroeconomic framework: The expanded reproduction system," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 11-2015, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    4. Buiter, Willem H., 2006. "The elusive welfare economics of price stability as a monetary policy objective: why New Keynesian central bankers should validate core inflation," Working Paper Series 609, European Central Bank.
    5. Andrea Bonilla‐Bolaños, 2021. "A step further in the theory of regional integration: A look at the South American integration strategy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 845-873, July.
    6. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    7. James Derbyshire, 2020. "Answers to questions on uncertainty in geography: Old lessons and new scenario tools," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(4), pages 710-727, June.
    8. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, Decembrie.
    9. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 2001. "On the optimality of activist policies with a less informed government," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 45-59, February.
    10. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
    11. Stephan Schulmeister, 2018. "From Prosperity into the Crisis and Back. On the Role of Economic Theories in the Long Cycle," WIFO Working Papers 571, WIFO.
    12. Ritschl, Albrecht & Ahmadi, Pooyan Amir, 2009. "Depression Econometrics: A FAVAR Model of Monetary Policy During the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 7546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233436, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    15. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Effects of exchange rate policy on bilateral export trade of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    17. Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "\"Dollarization,\" seignorage, and the demand for money," Working Papers 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Arghyrou, Michael G, 2014. "Is Greece turning the corner? A theory-based assessment of recent Greek macro-policy," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2014/16, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    19. Edmund S. Phelps, 2008. "Macroeconomics for a Modern Economy," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 52(1), pages 3-22, March.
    20. Shouyong Shi, 2006. "A Microfoundation of Monetary Economics," Working Papers tecipa-211, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles Synchronization; Theory of Optimum Currency Areas; Convergence; Economic Specialization; Economic Integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:8:y:2013:i:4:p:25-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam P. Balcerzak The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Adam P. Balcerzak to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibgtopl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.