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Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?

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  • Enders, Zeno
  • Jung, Philip
  • Müller, Gernot J.

Abstract

In this paper we analyze European business cycles before and under EMU. Across the two periods we ?nd 1) a signi?cant decline in real exchange rate volatility, 2) signi?cant changes in cross-country correlations, and 3) the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals largely un- changed. We develop a two-country business cycle model and show that the calibrated model is able to replicate key features of the data prior to and under EMU.We ?nd that the euro has a strong bearing on the transmission mechanism as cross-country spillovers increase substantially under EMU. As a result, foreign shocks become more and domestic shocks less important in accounting for the (unchanged) volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Enders, Zeno & Jung, Philip & Müller, Gernot J., 2009. "Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle?," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 6/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bonedp:62009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European business cycles; Euro; Optimum Currency Area; EMU; Monetary Policy; Exchange rate regime; Cross-country spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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