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Brothers or invaders? How crisis-driven migrants shape voting behavior

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  • Rozo, Sandra V.
  • Vargas, Juan F.

Abstract

We study the electoral effects of the arrival of 1.3 million Venezuelan refugees in Colombia as a consequence of the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis. We exploit the fact that forced migrants disproportionately locate in places with earlier settlements of Venezuelans after the intensification of the crisis. We find that larger migration shocks increase voter’s turnout and shift votes from left-to right-wing political ideologies. These effects are predominantly driven by voter’s concerns on the economic effects of migrants as well as by a novel channel that we call strategic electoral misinformation, whereby political parties make the forced migration shock salient to voters in order to demonize the political agenda of competitors.

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  • Rozo, Sandra V. & Vargas, Juan F., 2021. "Brothers or invaders? How crisis-driven migrants shape voting behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:150:y:2021:i:c:s0304387821000158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102636
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; Electoral outcomes; Political economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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