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Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey

Author

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  • Onur Altındağ

    (Bentley University
    Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies
    Economic Research Forum)

  • Neeraj Kaushal

    (Columbia University
    National Bureau of Economic Research)

Abstract

We study how individual political preferences changed in response to the influx of over 3.5 million Syrian refugees to Turkey during 2012–2016. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we compare the political outcomes in geographic areas with high versus low intensities of refugee presence before and after the beginning of the Syrian Civil War. To address the endogeneity of refugees’ location choices, we adopt an instrumental variables approach that relies on (1) historical dispersion of Arabic speakers in Turkish provinces and (2) driving distances between Turkish and Syrian residential areas to predict the flows of refugees across Turkish provinces during the study period. We find strong polarization in attitudes towards refugees between the supporters and opponents of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). However, regression analyses of monthly survey data suggest that the massive inflow of refugees induced only a modest net drop in support for the AKP. Refugee inflows did not have a significant impact on election outcomes during the study period.

Suggested Citation

  • Onur Altındağ & Neeraj Kaushal, 2021. "Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 149-178, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:186:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11127-019-00768-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00768-3
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    2. Albarosa, Emanuele & Elsner, Benjamin, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 15850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Carlo Devillanova, 2021. "Tolerant or segregated? Immigration and electoral outcomes in urban areas," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 495-515, April.
    4. Rozo, Sandra V. & Urbina, Maria José, 2020. "Who Does Not like Migrants? Individual Demographics and Attitudes Towards Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 13842, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Rozo, Sandra V. & Vargas, Juan F., 2021. "Brothers or invaders? How crisis-driven migrants shape voting behavior," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Allen, William L. & Ruiz, Isabel & Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2024. "Policy preferences in response to large forced migration inflows," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. Sarah Stillman & Sandra V Rozo & Abdulrazzak Tamim & I Bailey Palmer & Emma Smith & Edward Miguel, 2022. "The Syrian refugee life study: first glance," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 625-653.
    8. Emanuele Albarosa & Benjamin Elsner, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1183, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    9. Albarosa, E. & Elsner, B., 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    10. Bedasso Biniam E. & Jaupart Pascal, 2020. "South-South migration and elections: evidence from post-apartheid South Africa," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, January.
    11. Albarosa,Emanuele & Elsner,Benjamin, 2022. "Forced Migration, Social Cohesion and Conflict: The 2015 Refugee Inflow in Germany," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9913, The World Bank.
    12. Alexander Yarkin, 2023. "Learning from the Origins," CESifo Working Paper Series 10626, CESifo.
    13. Bratti, Massimiliano & Deiana, Claudio & Havari, Enkelejda & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Meroni, Elena Claudia, 2017. "What Are You Voting For? Proximity to Refugee Reception Centres and Voting in the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum," IZA Discussion Papers 11060, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Balkan, Binnur & Tok, Elif Ozcan & Torun, Huzeyfe & Tumen, Semih, 2018. "Immigration, Housing Rents, and Residential Segregation: Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 11611, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Kellermann, Kim Leonie & Winter, Simon, 2018. "Immigration and anti-immigrant sentiments: Evidence from the 2017 German parliamentary election," CIW Discussion Papers 5/2018, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    16. Zhou, Yang-Yang & Grossman, Guy & Ge, Shuning, 2023. "Inclusive refugee-hosting can improve local development and prevent public backlash," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    17. Mayda, Anna-Maria & Parsons, Christopher & Pham, Han & Vézina, Pierre-Louis, 2022. "Refugees and foreign direct investment: Quasi-experimental evidence from US resettlements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    18. Bottasso, Anna & Cerruti, Gianluca & Conti, Maurizio & Santagata, Marta, 2024. "Sailing Through History: The Legacy of Medieval Sea Trade On Migrant Perception and Extreme Right Voting," IZA Discussion Papers 16996, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Güneş A. Aşık, 2018. "Overlooked benefits of consumer credit growth: impact on formal employment," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, December.
    20. Gallagher,Allen William Andrew & Ruiz,Isabel & Vargas Silva,Carlos Ivan, 2022. "Policy Preferences in Response to Large Migration Inflows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10055, The World Bank.
    21. Kadigo, Mark Marvin & Maystadt, Jean-Francois, 2023. "How to cope with a refugee population? Evidence from Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    22. Mustafa Özer & Jan Fidrmuc, 2024. "Does Immigration Affect the Natives’ Mental Health? Causal Evidence from Forced Syrian Migration to Turkey," CESifo Working Paper Series 11399, CESifo.
    23. Billy Agwanda, 2022. "Securitization and Forced Migration in Kenya: A Policy Transition from Integration to Encampment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(3), pages 723-743, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugees; Political preferences; Voting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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