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Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Peipei
  • Zheng, Xinqi
  • Ai, Gang
  • Liu, Dongya
  • Zhu, Bangren

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak in late December 2019 is still spreading rapidly in many countries and regions around the world. It is thus urgent to predict the development and spread of the epidemic. In this paper, we have developed a forecasting model of COVID-19 by using a deep learning method with rolling update mechanism based on the epidemical data provided by Johns Hopkins University. First, as traditional epidemical models use the accumulative confirmed cases for training, it can only predict a rising trend of the epidemic and cannot predict when the epidemic will decline or end, an improved model is built based on long short-term memory (LSTM) with daily confirmed cases training set. Second, considering the existing forecasting model based on LSTM can only predict the epidemic trend within the next 30 days accurately, the rolling update mechanism is embedded with LSTM for long-term projections. Third, by introducing Diffusion Index (DI), the effectiveness of preventive measures like social isolation and lockdown on the spread of COVID-19 is analyzed in our novel research. The trends of the epidemic in 150 days ahead are modeled for Russia, Peru and Iran, three countries on different continents. Under our estimation, the current epidemic in Peru is predicted to continue until November 2020. The number of positive cases per day in Iran is expected to fall below 1000 by mid-November, with a gradual downward trend expected after several smaller peaks from July to September, while there will still be more than 2000 increase by early December in Russia. Moreover, our study highlights the importance of preventive measures which have been taken by the government, which shows that the strict controlment can significantly reduce the spread of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Peipei & Zheng, Xinqi & Ai, Gang & Liu, Dongya & Zhu, Bangren, 2020. "Time series prediction for the epidemic trends of COVID-19 using the improved LSTM deep learning method: Case studies in Russia, Peru and Iran," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s096007792030610x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chimmula, Vinay Kumar Reddy & Zhang, Lei, 2020. "Time series forecasting of COVID-19 transmission in Canada using LSTM networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Wang, Jinyong & Zhang, Ce, 2018. "Software reliability prediction using a deep learning model based on the RNN encoder–decoder," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 73-82.
    3. Wang, Peipei & Zheng, Xinqi & Li, Jiayang & Zhu, Bangren, 2020. "Prediction of epidemic trends in COVID-19 with logistic model and machine learning technics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Kırbaş, İsmail & Sözen, Adnan & Tuncer, Azim Doğuş & Kazancıoğlu, Fikret Şinasi, 2020. "Comparative analysis and forecasting of COVID-19 cases in various European countries with ARIMA, NARNN and LSTM approaches," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Essam A. Rashed & Akimasa Hirata, 2021. "One-Year Lesson: Machine Learning Prediction of COVID-19 Positive Cases with Meteorological Data and Mobility Estimate in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Wang, Peipei & Liu, Haiyan & Zheng, Xinqi & Ma, Ruifang, 2023. "A new method for spatio-temporal transmission prediction of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Elena G. Popkova & Aleksei V. Bogoviz & Svetlana V. Lobova & Abdula M. Chililov & Anastasia A. Sozinova & Bruno S. Sergi, 2022. "Changing entrepreneurial attitudes for mitigating the global pandemic’s social drama," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Abbasimehr, Hossein & Paki, Reza, 2021. "Prediction of COVID-19 confirmed cases combining deep learning methods and Bayesian optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Lv, Yang & Lv, Zhiqiang & Cheng, Zesheng & Zhu, Zhanqi & Rashidi, Taha Hossein, 2023. "TS-STNN: Spatial-temporal neural network based on tree structure for traffic flow prediction," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. Zhao, Xinxing & Li, Kainan & Ang, Candice Ke En & Ho, Andrew Fu Wah & Liu, Nan & Ong, Marcus Eng Hock & Cheong, Kang Hao, 2022. "A deep learning architecture for forecasting daily emergency department visits with acuity levels," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1).
    7. Bulut Boru & M. Emre Gursoy, 2022. "Forecasting Daily COVID-19 Case Counts Using Aggregate Mobility Statistics," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(11), pages 1-24, November.

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