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COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution

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  • Paul, Ayan
  • Reja, Selim
  • Kundu, Sayani
  • Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi

Abstract

We have put an effort to estimate the number of publications related to the modelling aspect of the corona pandemic through the web search with the corona associated keywords. The survey reveals that plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution. Most of the future predictions based on these epidemiological models are highly unreliable because of the complexity of the dynamical equations and the poor knowledge of realistic values of the model parameters. The incidence time series of top ten corona infected countries are erratic and sparse. But in comparison, the incidence and disease fitness relationships are uniform and concave upward in nature. These simple profiles with the acceleration curves have fundamental implications in understanding the instinctive dynamics of the corona pandemic. We propose a simple population dynamics solution based on the incidence-fitness relationship in predicting that a plateau or steady state of SARS-CoV-2 will be reached using the basic concept of geometry.

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  • Paul, Ayan & Reja, Selim & Kundu, Sayani & Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:144:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921000503
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pelinovsky, E. & Kokoulina, M. & Epifanova, A. & Kurkin, A. & Kurkina, O. & Tang, M. & Macau, E. & Kirillin, M., 2022. "Gompertz model in COVID-19 spreading simulation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Kundu, Sayani & Dasgupta, Nirjhar & Chakraborty, Bratati & Paul, Ayan & Ray, Santanu & Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi, 2021. "Growth acceleration is the key for identifying the most favorable food concentration of Artemia sp," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    3. Roy, Trina & Ghosh, Sinchan & Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi, 2022. "A new growth curve model portraying the stress response regulation of fish: Illustration through particle motion and real data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 470(C).
    4. Samadder, Amit & Chattopadhyay, Arnab & Sau, Anurag & Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi, 2024. "Interconnection between density-regulation and stability in competitive ecological network," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 33-46.

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