Improved robust model predictive control for residential building air conditioning and photovoltaic power generation with battery energy storage system under weather forecast uncertainty

The rising demands for comfort alongside energy conservation underscore the importance of intelligent air conditioning control systems. Model Predictive Control (MPC) stands out as an advanced control strategy capable of addressing these demands. However, accurate prediction of all relevant variables remains a challenge in practical scenarios, complicating MPC’s ability to devise effective control actions amid prediction inaccuracies. To counteract this issue, this paper introduces an enhanced Double-Layer Model Predictive Control (DLMPC) algorithm. This innovative approach adjusts for discrepancies between forecasted and actual values without the need for additional variables and models, thereby reducing the adverse effects of prediction errors. Additionally, we develop precise models for room temperature simulation and for calculating air conditioning (AC) load and energy consumption, grounded in empirical data from residential settings and AC performance tests. Validation of these models demonstrates their efficacy in enabling MPC to formulate efficacious control strategies. When juxtaposed with a baseline model, the DLMPC algorithm significantly improves temperature regulation accuracy by up to 15.12% and achieves a 10.50% reduction in energy consumption over the heating season.