IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v364y2024ics0306261924006214.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An interpretable framework for modeling global solar radiation using tree-based ensemble machine learning and Shapley additive explanations methods

Author

Listed:
  • Song, Zhe
  • Cao, Sunliang
  • Yang, Hongxing

Abstract

Machine learning techniques provide an effective and cost-efficient solution for estimating solar radiation for solar energy utilization. However, the reported machine learning-based solar radiation models fail to offer comprehensive explanations for their outputs. Therefore, this study aims to tackle this issue by developing machine learning models that are both accurate and interpretable. To achieve the objective, this study evaluated the performance of tree-based ensemble algorithms, using optimized combinations of model input parameters for different climate zones in China. The results showed that the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models demonstrated the highest overall accuracy, model stability, and generalization ability. At the national scale, the developed XGBoost models yielded an average R2, MAE, and RMSE of 0.939, 1.226 MJ/m2, and 1.663 MJ/m2, respectively, showing significant improvements of 2.13–27.78% in RMSE compared to recently reported models. Most importantly, the state-of-the-art SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) technique was integrated with the developed XGBoost models to enhance model interpretability in terms of global and local feature importance, as well as the interaction effects between model features. The results of the SHAP value analysis demonstrated the robustness of sunshine duration in modeling global solar radiation, revealing thresholds where its values undergo a shift from negative to positive effects on model output. SHAP interaction values illustrated the interaction effects among features in the developed solar radiation model, uncovering the model's complex non-linear relationships. Additionally, this study provided explanations for individual instances based on the SHAP method. Overall, this study provided an accurate, reliable, and transparent machine learning model and an enlightening framework for modeling global solar radiation at sites without observations.

Suggested Citation

  • Song, Zhe & Cao, Sunliang & Yang, Hongxing, 2024. "An interpretable framework for modeling global solar radiation using tree-based ensemble machine learning and Shapley additive explanations methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 364(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:364:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924006214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123238
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924006214
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123238?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zang, Haixiang & Jiang, Xin & Cheng, LiLin & Zhang, Fengchun & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2022. "Combined empirical and machine learning modeling method for estimation of daily global solar radiation for general meteorological observation stations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 795-808.
    2. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    4. Fjelkestam Frederiksen, Cornelia A. & Cai, Zuansi, 2022. "Novel machine learning approach for solar photovoltaic energy output forecast using extra-terrestrial solar irradiance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    5. Zou, Ling & Wang, Lunche & Xia, Li & Lin, Aiwen & Hu, Bo & Zhu, Hongji, 2017. "Prediction and comparison of solar radiation using improved empirical models and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 343-353.
    6. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Zeng, Wenzhi & Wang, Xiukang & Zou, Haiyang, 2019. "Empirical and machine learning models for predicting daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration: A review and case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 186-212.
    7. Song, Zhe & Cao, Sunliang & Yang, Hongxing, 2023. "Assessment of solar radiation resource and photovoltaic power potential across China based on optimized interpretable machine learning model and GIS-based approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    8. Shi, Hongrong & Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Wenting & Fu, Disong & Gao, Ling & Zhang, Jinqiang & Hu, Bo & Shan, Yunpeng & Zhang, Yingjie & Bian, Yuxuan & Chen, Hongbin & Xia, Xiangao, 2023. "First estimation of high-resolution solar photovoltaic resource maps over China with Fengyun-4A satellite and machine learning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    9. Paulescu, Marius & Badescu, Viorel & Budea, Sanda & Dumitrescu, Alexandru, 2022. "Empirical sunshine-based models vs online estimators for solar resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Mohamed Chaibi & EL Mahjoub Benghoulam & Lhoussaine Tarik & Mohamed Berrada & Abdellah El Hmaidi, 2021. "An Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Daily Global Solar Radiation Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-19, November.
    11. Liu, Fa & Wang, Xunming & Sun, Fubao & Wang, Hong, 2022. "Correct and remap solar radiation and photovoltaic power in China based on machine learning models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    12. Feng, Cong & Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Wenqi & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2022. "Convolutional neural networks for intra-hour solar forecasting based on sky image sequences," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    13. Zhao, Shuting & Wu, Lifeng & Xiang, Youzhen & Dong, Jianhua & Li, Zhen & Liu, Xiaoqiang & Tang, Zijun & Wang, Han & Wang, Xin & An, Jiaqi & Zhang, Fucang & Li, Zhijun, 2022. "Coupling meteorological stations data and satellite data for prediction of global solar radiation with machine learning models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1049-1064.
    14. Qiu, Rangjian & Li, Longan & Wu, Lifeng & Agathokleous, Evgenios & Liu, Chunwei & Zhang, Baozhong & Luo, Yufeng & Sun, Shanlei, 2022. "Modeling daily global solar radiation using only temperature data: Past, development, and future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    15. Qin, Wenmin & Wang, Lunche & Lin, Aiwen & Zhang, Ming & Xia, Xiangao & Hu, Bo & Niu, Zigeng, 2018. "Comparison of deterministic and data-driven models for solar radiation estimation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 579-594.
    16. Xinyu Yang & Ying Ji & Xiaoxia Wang & Menghan Niu & Shuijing Long & Jingchao Xie & Yuying Sun, 2023. "Simplified Method for Predicting Hourly Global Solar Radiation Using Extraterrestrial Radiation and Limited Weather Forecast Parameters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, April.
    17. Arjunan, Pandarasamy & Poolla, Kameshwar & Miller, Clayton, 2020. "EnergyStar++: Towards more accurate and explanatory building energy benchmarking," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    18. Despotovic, Milan & Nedic, Vladimir & Despotovic, Danijela & Cvetanovic, Slobodan, 2015. "Review and statistical analysis of different global solar radiation sunshine models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1869-1880.
    19. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Khalil, A. & Kaseb, S. & Kassem, M.A., 2017. "Exploring the potential of tree-based ensemble methods in solar radiation modeling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 897-916.
    20. Feng, Yanxiao & Duan, Qiuhua & Chen, Xi & Yakkali, Sai Santosh & Wang, Julian, 2021. "Space cooling energy usage prediction based on utility data for residential buildings using machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    21. Wang, Lunche & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad & Salazar, Germán Ariel & Zhu, Zhongmin & Gong, Wei, 2016. "Solar radiation prediction using different techniques: model evaluation and comparison," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 384-397.
    22. Mitrentsis, Georgios & Lens, Hendrik, 2022. "An interpretable probabilistic model for short-term solar power forecasting using natural gradient boosting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    23. Song, Zhe & Liu, Jia & Yang, Hongxing, 2021. "Air pollution and soiling implications for solar photovoltaic power generation: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    24. Liu, Jia & Chen, Xi & Yang, Hongxing & Shan, Kui, 2021. "Hybrid renewable energy applications in zero-energy buildings and communities integrating battery and hydrogen vehicle storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    25. Liu, Jiefeng & Zhang, Zhenhao & Fan, Xianhao & Zhang, Yiyi & Wang, Jiaqi & Zhou, Ke & Liang, Shuo & Yu, Xiaoyong & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Power system load forecasting using mobility optimization and multi-task learning in COVID-19," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    26. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Akoush, Bassem M. & Abubakr, Mohamed & Campana, Pietro Elia & Khalil, Adel, 2021. "High-resolution estimates of diffuse fraction based on dynamic definitions of sky conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 641-659.
    27. Lu, Yunbo & Wang, Lunche & Zhu, Canming & Zou, Ling & Zhang, Ming & Feng, Lan & Cao, Qian, 2023. "Predicting surface solar radiation using a hybrid radiative Transfer–Machine learning model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Song, Zhe & Cao, Sunliang & Yang, Hongxing, 2023. "Assessment of solar radiation resource and photovoltaic power potential across China based on optimized interpretable machine learning model and GIS-based approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    2. Feng, Yu & Hao, Weiping & Li, Haoru & Cui, Ningbo & Gong, Daozhi & Gao, Lili, 2020. "Machine learning models to quantify and map daily global solar radiation and photovoltaic power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Liu, Fa & Wang, Xunming & Sun, Fubao & Wang, Hong, 2022. "Correct and remap solar radiation and photovoltaic power in China based on machine learning models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    4. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Zeng, Wenzhi & Wang, Xiukang & Zou, Haiyang, 2019. "Empirical and machine learning models for predicting daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration: A review and case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 186-212.
    5. Liu, Yanfeng & Zhou, Yong & Chen, Yaowen & Wang, Dengjia & Wang, Yingying & Zhu, Ying, 2020. "Comparison of support vector machine and copula-based nonlinear quantile regression for estimating the daily diffuse solar radiation: A case study in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 1101-1112.
    6. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining simple and less time complex ML models with multivariate empirical mode decomposition to obtain accurate GHI forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    7. Olubayo M. Babatunde & Josiah L. Munda & Yskandar Hamam, 2020. "Exploring the Potentials of Artificial Neural Network Trained with Differential Evolution for Estimating Global Solar Radiation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Qin, Wenmin & Wang, Lunche & Lin, Aiwen & Zhang, Ming & Xia, Xiangao & Hu, Bo & Niu, Zigeng, 2018. "Comparison of deterministic and data-driven models for solar radiation estimation in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 579-594.
    9. Bayrakçı, Hilmi Cenk & Demircan, Cihan & Keçebaş, Ali, 2018. "The development of empirical models for estimating global solar radiation on horizontal surface: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2771-2782.
    10. Ben Ammar, Rim & Ben Ammar, Mohsen & Oualha, Abdelmajid, 2020. "Photovoltaic power forecast using empirical models and artificial intelligence approaches for water pumping systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1016-1028.
    11. Ahmed Aljanad & Nadia M. L. Tan & Vassilios G. Agelidis & Hussain Shareef, 2021. "Neural Network Approach for Global Solar Irradiance Prediction at Extremely Short-Time-Intervals Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.
    12. Guosheng Duan & Lifeng Wu & Fa Liu & Yicheng Wang & Shaofei Wu, 2022. "Improvement in Solar-Radiation Forecasting Based on Evolutionary KNEA Method and Numerical Weather Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, June.
    13. Hassan, Muhammed A. & Al-Ghussain, Loiy & Ahmad, Adnan Darwish & Abubaker, Ahmad M. & Khalil, Adel, 2022. "Aggregated independent forecasters of half-hourly global horizontal irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 365-383.
    14. Ali, Aliyuda & Aliyuda, Kachalla & Elmitwally, Nouh & Muhammad Bello, Abdulwahab, 2022. "Towards more accurate and explainable supervised learning-based prediction of deliverability for underground natural gas storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    15. Kisi, Ozgur & Heddam, Salim & Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, 2019. "The implementation of univariable scheme-based air temperature for solar radiation prediction: New development of dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy inference system model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 184-195.
    16. Zang, Haixiang & Cheng, Lilin & Ding, Tao & Cheung, Kwok W. & Wang, Miaomiao & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2020. "Application of functional deep belief network for estimating daily global solar radiation: A case study in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Zhang, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Gao, Bixuan & Liu, Wuming, 2021. "Hybrid deep neural model for hourly solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1041-1060.
    18. Koo, Choongwan & Li, Wenzhuo & Cha, Seung Hyun & Zhang, Shaojie, 2019. "A novel estimation approach for the solar radiation potential with its complex spatial pattern via machine-learning techniques," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 575-592.
    19. Erdener, Burcin Cakir & Feng, Cong & Doubleday, Kate & Florita, Anthony & Hodge, Bri-Mathias, 2022. "A review of behind-the-meter solar forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    20. Wu, Wei & Tang, Xiaoping & Lv, Jiake & Yang, Chao & Liu, Hongbin, 2021. "Potential of Bayesian additive regression trees for predicting daily global and diffuse solar radiation in arid and humid areas," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 148-163.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:364:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924006214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.