Emissions of electric vehicles in California’s transition to carbon neutrality

California has a many activities targeting specific sectors to mitigate climate change. This study models several scenarios of future electric vehicle emissions in the state and explores untapped policy opportunities for interactions between sectors, specifically between the transportation and electricity grid. As electric vehicles become more prevalent, their impact on the electricity grid is directly related to the aggregate patterns of vehicle charging—even without vehicle-to-grid services, shifting of charging patterns can be a potentially important resource to alleviate issues such as renewable intermittency. This study involved the creation of a model to predict the potential emissions benefits of managed vs. unmanaged charging. The study finds that the lion’s share of emissions reduction in the light-duty transportation sector in California comes from electrification, with a cumulative 1 billion tons of CO2 reduction through 2045. This figure represents a decrease of about 4 tons CO2/capita/year from the average operation of Californian passenger vehicles in 2020 to about 40 kg CO2/capita/year in 2045. Decarbonization of the current grid leads to an additional savings of 125 million tons of CO2 over the same time-period. As the state moves towards these objectives through existing (and potential future) policies, additional policies to exploit synergies between transportation electrification and grid decarbonization could reduce cumulative emissions by another 10 million tons of CO2.