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Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior

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  • Powell, Siobhan
  • Cezar, Gustavo Vianna
  • Rajagopal, Ram

Abstract

To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.

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  • Powell, Siobhan & Cezar, Gustavo Vianna & Rajagopal, Ram, 2022. "Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:309:y:2022:i:c:s0306261921016214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118382
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Yuekuan & Liu, Xiaohua & Zhao, Qianchuan, 2024. "A stochastic vehicle schedule model for demand response and grid flexibility in a renewable-building-e-transportation-microgrid," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    2. Powell, Siobhan & Martin, Sonia & Rajagopal, Ram & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & de Chalendar, Jacques, 2024. "Future-proof rates for controlled electric vehicle charging: Comparing multi-year impacts of different emission factor signals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Marcelo Bruno Capeletti & Bruno Knevitz Hammerschmitt & Leonardo Nogueira Fontoura da Silva & Nelson Knak Neto & Jordan Passinato Sausen & Carlos Henrique Barriquello & Alzenira da Rosa Abaide, 2024. "User Behavior in Fast Charging of Electric Vehicles: An Analysis of Parameters and Clustering," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Ahmadian, Amirhossein & Ghodrati, Vahid & Gadh, Rajit, 2023. "Artificial deep neural network enables one-size-fits-all electric vehicle user behavior prediction framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    5. Powell, Siobhan & Vianna Cezar, Gustavo & Apostolaki-Iosifidou, Elpiniki & Rajagopal, Ram, 2022. "Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    6. Jaikumar Shanmuganathan & Aruldoss Albert Victoire & Gobu Balraj & Amalraj Victoire, 2022. "Deep Learning LSTM Recurrent Neural Network Model for Prediction of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-28, August.
    7. Luiz Almeida & Ana Soares & Pedro Moura, 2023. "A Systematic Review of Optimization Approaches for the Integration of Electric Vehicles in Public Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-26, June.
    8. Wu, Ji & Su, Hao & Meng, Jinhao & Lin, Mingqiang, 2023. "Electric vehicle charging scheduling considering infrastructure constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    9. Siobhan Powell & Gustavo Vianna Cezar & Liang Min & Inês M. L. Azevedo & Ram Rajagopal, 2022. "Charging infrastructure access and operation to reduce the grid impacts of deep electric vehicle adoption," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 932-945, October.
    10. Huang, Pei & Ma, Zhenliang, 2024. "Unveiling electric vehicle (EV) charging patterns and their transformative role in electricity balancing and delivery: Insights from real-world data in Sweden," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    11. Wang, Shengyou & Zhuge, Chengxiang & Shao, Chunfu & Wang, Pinxi & Yang, Xiong & Wang, Shiqi, 2023. "Short-term electric vehicle charging demand prediction: A deep learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).

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