IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v271y2023ics0360544223003973.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Echelon peaking path of China's provincial building carbon emissions: Considering peak and time constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Rui
  • Liu, Qiqi
  • Cai, Weiguang
  • Liu, Yuan
  • Yu, Yanhui
  • Zhang, Yihao

Abstract

The significant differences in the level of economic development, energy structure, and natural resource endowments between provinces in China means that the development trajectories of building carbon emissions also differ significantly. Therefore, conducting peaking studies of building carbon emissions only at the national level may lead to large errors. Using a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches and considering the actual situation of each province, this study constructed a provincial-level building carbon emission model for China and established differentiated scenario parameters based on peak and time constraints. By comparing and analyzing the peak value and peak time under different scenarios, the effective echelon peaking path for provincial building carbon emissions was determined. The results show that the transitional regions with high urbanization rates such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the eastern regions with economically developed such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai should take more responsibility for emission reduction, and reach the peak of building carbon emissions earlier. Instead, a certain time and space for development should be given to the central regions with relatively low urbanization rates and large populations such as Anhui, Henan, Hubei, and to the underdeveloped western regions such as Sichuan, Yunnan, Shannxi. This study provides a decision-making reference to achieve building energy conservation and emission reduction in Chinese provinces and foreign regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Rui & Liu, Qiqi & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Yuan & Yu, Yanhui & Zhang, Yihao, 2023. "Echelon peaking path of China's provincial building carbon emissions: Considering peak and time constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:271:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223003973
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223003973
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Kai & Tang, Yiqi & Zhang, Qifeng & Song, Junnian & Wen, Qi & Sun, Huaping & Ji, Chenyang & Xu, Anqi, 2019. "Will China peak its energy-related carbon emissions by 2030? Lessons from 30 Chinese provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Zhu Liu & Dabo Guan & Scott Moore & Henry Lee & Jun Su & Qiang Zhang, 2015. "Climate policy: Steps to China's carbon peak," Nature, Nature, vol. 522(7556), pages 279-281, June.
    3. Shi, Huiting & Chai, Jian & Lu, Quanying & Zheng, Jiali & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "The impact of China's low-carbon transition on economy, society and energy in 2030 based on CO2 emissions drivers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    4. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    5. Panayotou, Theodore, 1997. "Demystifying the environmental Kuznets curve: turning a black box into a policy tool," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 465-484, November.
    6. Hu, Guangxiao & Ma, Xiaoming & Ji, Junping, 2019. "Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model – A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 876-886.
    7. Smriti Mallapaty, 2020. "How China could be carbon neutral by mid-century," Nature, Nature, vol. 586(7830), pages 482-483, October.
    8. Jiang, Jinhe, 2016. "China's urban residential carbon emission and energy efficiency policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 866-875.
    9. Qi, Wei & Li, Guangdong, 2020. "Residential carbon emission embedded in China's inter-provincial population migration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Tan, Xianchun & Lai, Haiping & Gu, Baihe & Zeng, Yuan & Li, Hui, 2018. "Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China's building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 429-439.
    11. Nan Zhou & Nina Khanna & Wei Feng & Jing Ke & Mark Levine, 2018. "Scenarios of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction potential in the buildings sector in China to year 2050," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 978-984, November.
    12. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    13. Zhang, Xi & Geng, Yong & Shao, Shuai & Dong, Huijuan & Wu, Rui & Yao, Tianli & Song, Jiekun, 2020. "How to achieve China’s CO2 emission reduction targets by provincial efforts? – An analysis based on generalized Divisia index and dynamic scenario simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Yang, Tao & Pan, Yiqun & Yang, Yikun & Lin, Meishun & Qin, Bingyue & Xu, Peng & Huang, Zhizhong, 2017. "CO2 emissions in China's building sector through 2050: A scenario analysis based on a bottom-up model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 208-223.
    15. Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Cai, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2020. "Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tang, Liwei & Luo, Mansi & Li, Ke & Zhang, Fan, 2024. "Driving factors and peaking of CO2 emissions: An empirical analysis of Hunan Province," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    2. Fang Wan & Jizu Li, 2023. "Responsibility Allocation of Provincial Industry Emission Reduction from the Perspective of Industrial Linkages—A Case Study of Shanxi Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-14, June.
    3. Qianqian Xiao & Zi’ang Chu & Changfeng Shi, 2024. "The Inter-Regional Embodied Carbon Flow Pattern in China Based on Carbon Peaking Stress," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-18, June.
    4. Zhong, Yuxuan & Li, Rui & Cai, Weiguang, 2024. "Coordinating building electrification with regional grid decarbonization: Comparison of carbon emissions of different scheduling strategies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yanyan Ke & Lu Zhou & Minglei Zhu & Yan Yang & Rui Fan & Xianrui Ma, 2023. "Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emission Peak of Urban Residential Buildings in China’s Coastal Region: A Case of Fujian Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, January.
    2. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    3. Miao, Ankang & Yuan, Yue & Wu, Han & Ma, Xin & Shao, Chenyu & Xiang, Sheng, 2024. "Pathway for China's provincial carbon emission peak: A case study of the Jiangsu Province," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    4. Huo, Tengfei & Ma, Yuling & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2022. "Carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector through 2060: A dynamic scenario simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    5. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Huo, Tengfei & Du, Qianxi & Xu, Linbo & Shi, Qingwei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cai, Weiguang, 2023. "Timetable and roadmap for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China's building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    7. Liu, Junling & Yin, Mingjian & Xia-Hou, Qinrui & Wang, Ke & Zou, Ji, 2021. "Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Li, Kai & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili & Cai, Weiguang & Ma, Xin, 2022. "Carbon reduction in commercial building operations: A provincial retrospection in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    9. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    10. Zhang, Shufan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & You, Kairui, 2023. "Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    11. Chen, Huadun & Du, Qianxi & Huo, Tengfei & Liu, Peiran & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2023. "Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    12. Yang, Yi & Qin, Huan, 2024. "The uncertainties of the carbon peak and the temporal and regional heterogeneity of its driving factors in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    13. Jiang, Jingjing & Ye, Bin & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 813-833.
    14. Zhang, Boling & Wang, Qian & Wang, Sixia & Tong, Ruipeng, 2023. "Coal power demand and paths to peak carbon emissions in China: A provincial scenario analysis oriented by CO2-related health co-benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    15. Huo, Tengfei & Cong, Xiaobo & Cheng, Cong & Cai, Weiguang & Zuo, Jian, 2023. "What is the driving mechanism for the carbon emissions in the building sector? An integrated DEMATEL-ISM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    16. Haichao Feng & Ruonan Wang & He Zhang, 2022. "Research on Carbon Emission Characteristics of Rural Buildings Based on LMDI-LEAP Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.
    17. Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Cai, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2020. "Low carbon roadmap of residential building sector in China: Historical mitigation and prospective peak," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    18. Wang, Yuanping & Hou, Lingchun & Cai, Weiguang & Zhou, Zhaoyin & Bian, Jing, 2023. "Exploring the drivers and influencing mechanisms of urban household electricity consumption in China - Based on longitudinal data at the provincial level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    19. Chen, Qingjuan & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Honggang, 2023. "Drivers and evolution of low-carbon development in China's transportation industry: An integrated analytical approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    20. Tang, Bao-Jun & Guo, Yang-Yang & Yu, Biying & Harvey, L.D. Danny, 2021. "Pathways for decarbonizing China’s building sector under global warming thresholds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:271:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223003973. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.