IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v316y2022ics0306261922005128.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term stochastic model predictive control and efficiency assessment for hydro-wind-solar renewable energy supply system

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yi
  • Cheng, Chuntian
  • Cai, Huaxiang
  • Jin, Xiaoyu
  • Jia, Zebin
  • Wu, Xinyu
  • Su, Huaying
  • Yang, Tiantian

Abstract

It is popular to combine the hydropower plant with the wind and solar power plants to supply electricity, and the joint is termed as the hydro-wind-solar renewable energy supply system (RESS). The long-term optimal operation of the RESS is a challenging task, due to the nature of different spatial and temporal variabilities associated with renewable energy resources, and the significant operation uncertainties due to the changing natural environment. To address the task, the stochastic model predictive control (MPC), based on probabilistic forecasting and rolling stochastic optimization, is designed and implemented for the long-term operations of the RESSs in Yunnan province, China. The paper tests out the system efficiencies for different penetration levels of wind and solar power, and finds out that (1) the Long Short-Term Memory performs best among candidate point prediction algorithms; (2) the stochastic MPC considering the correlations among renewable resources helps the RESS operate with a higher efficiency; (3) the large-scale hydropower plant has great potential to offset the effects of seasonal uncertainties and demand-generation mismatch, but cannot completely avoid the electricity shortage enabled by unexpected scenarios of renewable resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Cai, Huaxiang & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Wu, Xinyu & Su, Huaying & Yang, Tiantian, 2022. "Long-term stochastic model predictive control and efficiency assessment for hydro-wind-solar renewable energy supply system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 316(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:316:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922005128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922005128
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119134?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ramedani, Zeynab & Omid, Mahmoud & Keyhani, Alireza & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin & Khoshnevisan, Benyamin, 2014. "Potential of radial basis function based support vector regression for global solar radiation prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1005-1011.
    2. Giuliano Di Baldassarre & Niko Wanders & Amir AghaKouchak & Linda Kuil & Sally Rangecroft & Ted I. E. Veldkamp & Margaret Garcia & Pieter R. van Oel & Korbinian Breinl & Anne F. Van Loon, 2018. "Water shortages worsened by reservoir effects," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(11), pages 617-622, November.
    3. William A. Braff & Joshua M. Mueller & Jessika E. Trancik, 2016. "Value of storage technologies for wind and solar energy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 964-969, October.
    4. David E. H. J. Gernaat & Harmen Sytze Boer & Vassilis Daioglou & Seleshi G. Yalew & Christoph Müller & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2021. "Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(2), pages 119-125, February.
    5. Nestor A. Sepulveda & Jesse D. Jenkins & Aurora Edington & Dharik S. Mallapragada & Richard K. Lester, 2021. "The design space for long-duration energy storage in decarbonized power systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 506-516, May.
    6. David E. H. J. Gernaat & Harmen Sytze Boer & Vassilis Daioglou & Seleshi G. Yalew & Christoph Müller & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2021. "Author Correction: Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 362-362, April.
    7. Zhao, Haoran & Wu, Qiuwei & Hu, Shuju & Xu, Honghua & Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard, 2015. "Review of energy storage system for wind power integration support," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 545-553.
    8. Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Feng, Maoyuan & Wang, Xianxun, 2017. "Optimizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower reservoir by incorporating long- and short-term operational decisions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 432-445.
    9. Xu, Bin & Zhu, Feilin & Zhong, Ping-an & Chen, Juan & Liu, Weifeng & Ma, Yufei & Guo, Le & Deng, Xiaoliang, 2019. "Identifying long-term effects of using hydropower to complement wind power uncertainty through stochastic programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Markus Reichstein & Gustau Camps-Valls & Bjorn Stevens & Martin Jung & Joachim Denzler & Nuno Carvalhais & Prabhat, 2019. "Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7743), pages 195-204, February.
    11. Li, He & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Ming, Bo & Cheng, Lei & Yang, Zhikai, 2019. "Long-term complementary operation of a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power plant using explicit stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 863-875.
    12. Dißmann, J. & Brechmann, E.C. & Czado, C. & Kurowicka, D., 2013. "Selecting and estimating regular vine copulae and application to financial returns," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 52-69.
    13. Li, Baibing & Martin, Elaine B. & Morris, A. Julian, 2002. "On principal component analysis in L1," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 471-474, September.
    14. Joeri Rogelj & Michel den Elzen & Niklas Höhne & Taryn Fransen & Hanna Fekete & Harald Winkler & Roberto Schaeffer & Fu Sha & Keywan Riahi & Malte Meinshausen, 2016. "Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 534(7609), pages 631-639, June.
    15. Camal, S. & Teng, F. & Michiorri, A. & Kariniotakis, G. & Badesa, L., 2019. "Scenario generation of aggregated Wind, Photovoltaics and small Hydro production for power systems applications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1396-1406.
    16. Zhang, Yan & Meng, Fanlin & Wang, Rui & Kazemtabrizi, Behzad & Shi, Jianmai, 2019. "Uncertainty-resistant stochastic MPC approach for optimal operation of CHP microgrid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1265-1278.
    17. Ávila R., Leandro & Mine, Miriam R.M. & Kaviski, Eloy & Detzel, Daniel H.M. & Fill, Heinz D. & Bessa, Marcelo R. & Pereira, Guilherme A.A., 2020. "Complementarity modeling of monthly streamflow and wind speed regimes based on a copula-entropy approach: A Brazilian case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    18. Liu, Weifeng & Zhu, Feilin & Zhao, Tongtiegang & Wang, Hao & Lei, Xiaohui & Zhong, Ping-an & Fthenakis, Vasilis, 2020. "Optimal stochastic scheduling of hydropower-based compensation for combined wind and photovoltaic power outputs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    19. Dan Tong & Qiang Zhang & Yixuan Zheng & Ken Caldeira & Christine Shearer & Chaopeng Hong & Yue Qin & Steven J. Davis, 2019. "Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target," Nature, Nature, vol. 572(7769), pages 373-377, August.
    20. Charrad, Malika & Ghazzali, Nadia & Boiteau, Véronique & Niknafs, Azam, 2014. "NbClust: An R Package for Determining the Relevant Number of Clusters in a Data Set," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 61(i06).
    21. William Chen & Julian D. Olden, 2017. "Designing flows to resolve human and environmental water needs in a dam-regulated river," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    22. Duong, Tarn, 2007. "ks: Kernel Density Estimation and Kernel Discriminant Analysis for Multivariate Data in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i07).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Zizhao & Li, Yang & Wu, Feng & Wu, Jiawei & Shi, Linjun & Lin, Keman, 2024. "Multi-objective day-ahead scheduling of cascade hydropower-photovoltaic complementary system with pumping installation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    2. Koh, Rachel & Kern, Jordan & Galelli, Stefano, 2022. "Hard-coupling water and power system models increases the complementarity of renewable energy sources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    3. Xu, Jie & Lv, Tao & Hou, Xiaoran & Deng, Xu & Li, Na & Liu, Feng, 2022. "Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of renewable energy production in China: A spatial econometric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Ju, Chang & Ding, Tao & Jia, Wenhao & Mu, Chenggang & Zhang, Hongji & Sun, Yuge, 2023. "Two-stage robust unit commitment with the cascade hydropower stations retrofitted with pump stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    5. Jing, Zhiqiang & Wang, Yimin & Chang, Jianxia & Wang, Xuebin & Zhou, Yong & Li, Liang & Tian, Yuyu, 2024. "Benefit compensation of hydropower-wind-photovoltaic complementary operation in the large clean energy base," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 354(PA).
    6. Yuanyuan Liu & Hao Zhang & Pengcheng Guo & Chenxi Li & Shuai Wu, 2024. "Optimal Scheduling of a Cascade Hydropower Energy Storage System for Solar and Wind Energy Accommodation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-23, June.
    7. Ma, Chao & Xu, Ximeng & Pang, Xiulan & Li, Xiaofeng & Zhang, Pengfei & Liu, Lu, 2024. "Scenario-based ultra-short-term rolling optimal operation of a photovoltaic-energy storage system under forecast uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    8. Lu, Na & Wang, Guangyan & Su, Chengguo & Ren, Zaimin & Peng, Xiaoyue & Sui, Quan, 2024. "Medium- and long-term interval optimal scheduling of cascade hydropower-photovoltaic complementary systems considering multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    9. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Chang, Jianxia & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Refining long-term operation of large hydro–photovoltaic–wind hybrid systems by nesting response functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 359-371.
    10. Hasan Huseyin Coban, 2023. "Hydropower Planning in Combination with Batteries and Solar Energy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    11. Li, Yanting & Peng, Xinghao & Zhang, Yu, 2022. "Forecasting methods for wind power scenarios of multiple wind farms based on spatio-temporal dependency structure," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 950-960.
    12. Han, Shuo & Yuan, Yifan & He, Mengjiao & Zhao, Ziwen & Xu, Beibei & Chen, Diyi & Jurasz, Jakub, 2024. "A novel day-ahead scheduling model to unlock hydropower flexibility limited by vibration zones in hydropower-variable renewable energy hybrid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).
    13. Jin, Xiaoyu & Liu, Benxi & Liao, Shengli & Cheng, Chuntian & Jurasz, Jakub & Zhang, Yi & Lu, Jia, 2023. "Exploring the transition role of cascade hydropower in 100% decarbonized energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    14. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Feng, Maoyuan & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Luo, Xinran & Liu, Weibo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Xia, Jun, 2023. "Complementary operation with wind and photovoltaic power induces the decrease in hydropower efficiency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Cao, Rui & Li, Gang & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2021. "Multivariate probabilistic forecasting and its performance’s impacts on long-term dispatch of hydro-wind hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    3. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Feng, Maoyuan & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Luo, Xinran & Liu, Weibo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Xia, Jun, 2023. "Complementary operation with wind and photovoltaic power induces the decrease in hydropower efficiency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    4. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Jun & Ming, Bo & Cheng, Lei & Chen, Jie & Xie, Kang & Liu, Zheyuan & Li, Xiao, 2022. "Contribution of complementary operation in adapting to climate change impacts on a large-scale wind–solar–hydro system: A case study in the Yalong River Basin, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    5. Lu, Na & Wang, Guangyan & Su, Chengguo & Ren, Zaimin & Peng, Xiaoyue & Sui, Quan, 2024. "Medium- and long-term interval optimal scheduling of cascade hydropower-photovoltaic complementary systems considering multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    6. Chaoyang Chen & Hualing Liu & Yong Xiao & Fagen Zhu & Li Ding & Fuwen Yang, 2022. "Power Generation Scheduling for a Hydro-Wind-Solar Hybrid System: A Systematic Survey and Prospect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-31, November.
    7. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Qian & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Weifeng & Zheng, Yalian & Han, Dongyang & Xia, Jun, 2023. "An analytical method to evaluate curtailment of hydro–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems and its implication under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    8. Yang, Yuqi & Zhou, Jianzhong & Liu, Guangbiao & Mo, Li & Wang, Yongqiang & Jia, Benjun & He, Feifei, 2020. "Multi-plan formulation of hydropower generation considering uncertainty of wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    9. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Li, Xiao, 2021. "Deriving pack rules for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power systems considering diminishing marginal benefit of energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    10. Dan Tong & David J. Farnham & Lei Duan & Qiang Zhang & Nathan S. Lewis & Ken Caldeira & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Geophysical constraints on the reliability of solar and wind power worldwide," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Tan, Qiaofeng & Nie, Zhuang & Wen, Xin & Su, Huaying & Fang, Guohua & Zhang, Ziyi, 2024. "Complementary scheduling rules for hybrid pumped storage hydropower-photovoltaic power system reconstructing from conventional cascade hydropower stations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    12. Zhang, Yusheng & Ma, Chao & Yang, Yang & Pang, Xiulan & Liu, Lu & Lian, Jijian, 2021. "Study on short-term optimal operation of cascade hydro-photovoltaic hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    13. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Li, Dingfang, 2021. "Identifying the effect of forecast uncertainties on hybrid power system operation: A case study of Longyangxia hydro–photovoltaic plant in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1303-1321.
    14. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Chang, Jianxia & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Refining long-term operation of large hydro–photovoltaic–wind hybrid systems by nesting response functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 359-371.
    15. Ming, Bo & Chen, Jing & Fang, Wei & Liu, Pan & Zhang, Wei & Jiang, Jianhua, 2023. "Evaluation of stochastic optimal operation models for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid generation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    16. Chai, Maojie & Chen, Zhangxin & Nourozieh, Hossein & Yang, Min, 2023. "Numerical simulation of large-scale seasonal hydrogen storage in an anticline aquifer: A case study capturing hydrogen interactions and cushion gas injection," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    17. Ding, Ziyu & Wen, Xin & Tan, Qiaofeng & Yang, Tiantian & Fang, Guohua & Lei, Xiaohui & Zhang, Yu & Wang, Hao, 2021. "A forecast-driven decision-making model for long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    18. Li, Yan & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Wang, Yimin & Liu, Pan & Guo, Pengcheng, 2022. "Identifying effective operating rules for large hydro–solar–wind hybrid systems based on an implicit stochastic optimization framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    19. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    20. Mahsa Dehghan Manshadi & Milad Mousavi & M. Soltani & Amir Mosavi & Levente Kovacs, 2022. "Deep Learning for Modeling an Offshore Hybrid Wind–Wave Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:316:y:2022:i:c:s0306261922005128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.