IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v278y2023ics0360544223011945.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analytical method to evaluate curtailment of hydro–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems and its implication under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng, Qian
  • Liu, Pan
  • Xia, Qian
  • Cheng, Lei
  • Ming, Bo
  • Zhang, Wei
  • Xu, Weifeng
  • Zheng, Yalian
  • Han, Dongyang
  • Xia, Jun

Abstract

Identifying power curtailment is essential for system reliability, especially in hydro–photovoltaic (PV) hybrid energy systems (HPESs) exposed to future climate variability. However, the relatively low temporal resolution of climate projections challenges the effectiveness of current numerical simulation methods for evaluating the curtailment rate of HPESs. This study derives an analytical method based on daily hydropower and PV power rather than the commonly used hourly data in numerical methods, to reduce reliance on the temporal resolution of climate inputs. A short-term operation model is constructed to verify the effectiveness of the derived power curtailment function. A long-term operation model incorporating the analytical power curtailment function is then established to analyze variations in future curtailment rates using climate information projections. Results of a case study in the Yalong River Basin validate the accuracy of the derived PV curtailment function. Compared with the reference period, future hydropower and PV power will increase in most climate scenarios with substantial variances, whereas the PV curtailment rate exhibits an overall increase in the near future (+2.49%) and a larger increase in the far future (+5.53%). The most noticeable increases in future PV curtailment rates occur in June, July, and October (+3.15%, +5.47%, and +3.11%). The proposed analytical method provides valuable insights for the risk evaluation of HPESs by coupling the short-term power curtailment rate with mid- and long-term climate variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Qian & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Weifeng & Zheng, Yalian & Han, Dongyang & Xia, Jun, 2023. "An analytical method to evaluate curtailment of hydro–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems and its implication under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:278:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223011945
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127800
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223011945
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127800?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ma, Chao & Liu, Lu, 2022. "Optimal capacity configuration of hydro-wind-PV hybrid system and its coordinative operation rules considering the UHV transmission and reservoir operation requirements," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 637-653.
    2. David E. H. J. Gernaat & Harmen Sytze Boer & Vassilis Daioglou & Seleshi G. Yalew & Christoph Müller & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2021. "Author Correction: Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 362-362, April.
    3. Wen, Xin & Sun, Yuanliang & Tan, Qiaofeng & Tang, Zhengyang & Wang, Zhenni & Liu, Zhehua & Ding, Ziyu, 2022. "Optimizing the sizes of wind and photovoltaic plants complementarily operating with cascade hydropower stations: Balancing risk and benefit," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    4. Steven Chu & Arun Majumdar, 2012. "Opportunities and challenges for a sustainable energy future," Nature, Nature, vol. 488(7411), pages 294-303, August.
    5. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Feng, Maoyuan & Huang, Kangdi & Wang, Yibo, 2022. "Identifying the functional form of operating rules for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    6. Zhao, Xiaohu & Huang, Guohe & Lu, Chen & Zhou, Xiong & Li, Yongping, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on photovoltaic energy potential: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    7. Seleshi G. Yalew & Michelle T. H. van Vliet & David E. H. J. Gernaat & Fulco Ludwig & Ariel Miara & Chan Park & Edward Byers & Enrica De Cian & Franziska Piontek & Gokul Iyer & Ioanna Mouratiadou & Ja, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 794-802, October.
    8. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Liu, Yini & Huang, Kangdi, 2021. "Robust operation interval of a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic power system to cope with emergencies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    9. Jurasz, Jakub & Kies, Alexander & Zajac, Pawel, 2020. "Synergetic operation of photovoltaic and hydro power stations on a day-ahead energy market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    10. Wang, Zizhao & Wu, Feng & Li, Yang & Li, Jingyan & Liu, Ying & Liu, Wenge, 2023. "Day-ahead dispatch approach for cascaded hydropower-photovoltaic complementary system based on two-stage robust optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    11. Tan, Qiaofeng & Wen, Xin & Sun, Yuanliang & Lei, Xiaohui & Wang, Zhenni & Qin, Guanghua, 2021. "Evaluation of the risk and benefit of the complementary operation of the large wind-photovoltaic-hydropower system considering forecast uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    12. Mei, H. & Li, Y.P. & Suo, C. & Ma, Y. & Lv, J., 2020. "Analyzing the impact of climate change on energy-economy-carbon nexus system in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    13. Huang, Kangdi & Liu, Pan & Kim, Jong-Suk & Xu, Weifeng & Gong, Yu & Cheng, Qian & Zhou, Yong, 2023. "A model coupling current non-adjustable, coming adjustable and remaining stages for daily generation scheduling of a wind-solar-hydro complementary system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    14. David E. H. J. Gernaat & Harmen Sytze Boer & Vassilis Daioglou & Seleshi G. Yalew & Christoph Müller & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2021. "Climate change impacts on renewable energy supply," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(2), pages 119-125, February.
    15. Cheng, Qian & Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Huang, Kangdi & Gong, Yu & Li, Xiao & Zheng, Yalian, 2021. "Solving hydro unit commitment problems with multiple hydraulic heads based on a two-layer nested optimization method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 317-326.
    16. Huang, Kangdi & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Kim, Jong-Suk & Gong, Yu, 2021. "Economic operation of a wind-solar-hydro complementary system considering risks of output shortage, power curtailment and spilled water," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    17. Zhang, Yusheng & Ma, Chao & Yang, Yang & Pang, Xiulan & Liu, Lu & Lian, Jijian, 2021. "Study on short-term optimal operation of cascade hydro-photovoltaic hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    18. Huang, Kangdi & Luo, Peng & Liu, Pan & KIM, Jong Suk & Wang, Yintang & Xu, Weifeng & Li, He & Gong, Yu, 2022. "Improving complementarity of a hybrid renewable energy system to meet load demand by using hydropower regulation ability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    19. Nik, Vahid M., 2016. "Making energy simulation easier for future climate – Synthesizing typical and extreme weather data sets out of regional climate models (RCMs)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 204-226.
    20. Baptiste François & Benoit Hingray & Marco Borga & Davide Zoccatelli & Casey Brown & Jean-Dominique Creutin, 2018. "Impact of Climate Change on Combined Solar and Run-of-River Power in Northern Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.
    21. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    22. Zhang, Yusheng & Ma, Chao & Yang, Yang & Pang, Xiulan & Lian, Jijian & Wang, Xin, 2022. "Capacity configuration and economic evaluation of a power system integrating hydropower, solar, and wind," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    23. Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Feng, Maoyuan & Wang, Xianxun, 2017. "Optimizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower reservoir by incorporating long- and short-term operational decisions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 432-445.
    24. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Li, Xiao, 2021. "Deriving pack rules for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power systems considering diminishing marginal benefit of energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    25. Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Zhang, Jingwen, 2019. "Hydropower reservoir reoperation to adapt to large-scale photovoltaic power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 268-279.
    26. Ding, Ziyu & Wen, Xin & Tan, Qiaofeng & Yang, Tiantian & Fang, Guohua & Lei, Xiaohui & Zhang, Yu & Wang, Hao, 2021. "A forecast-driven decision-making model for long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    27. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Feng, Maoyuan & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Luo, Xinran & Liu, Weibo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Xia, Jun, 2023. "Complementary operation with wind and photovoltaic power induces the decrease in hydropower efficiency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    28. Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Zhou, Yanlai & Gao, Shida & Li, He, 2018. "Robust hydroelectric unit commitment considering integration of large-scale photovoltaic power: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1341-1352.
    29. Yang, Zhikai & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Deli & Ming, Bo & Li, He & Xia, Qian, 2021. "Sizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower plant considering the effects of climate change: A case study in the Longyangxia of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    30. Guo, Yi & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Wang, Yimin & Zheng, Xudong & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Risk-averse day-ahead generation scheduling of hydro–wind–photovoltaic complementary systems considering the steady requirement of power delivery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Feng, Maoyuan & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Luo, Xinran & Liu, Weibo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Xia, Jun, 2023. "Complementary operation with wind and photovoltaic power induces the decrease in hydropower efficiency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    2. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Jun & Ming, Bo & Cheng, Lei & Chen, Jie & Xie, Kang & Liu, Zheyuan & Li, Xiao, 2022. "Contribution of complementary operation in adapting to climate change impacts on a large-scale wind–solar–hydro system: A case study in the Yalong River Basin, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    3. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Shang, Jia’nan & Jurasz, Jakub & Liu, Pan, 2023. "A holistic techno-economic evaluation framework for sizing renewable power plant in a hydro-based hybrid generation system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    4. Li, Yan & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Wang, Yimin & Liu, Pan & Guo, Pengcheng, 2022. "Identifying effective operating rules for large hydro–solar–wind hybrid systems based on an implicit stochastic optimization framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    5. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Feng, Maoyuan & Huang, Kangdi & Wang, Yibo, 2022. "Identifying the functional form of operating rules for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    6. Wang, Yanling & Wen, Xin & Su, Huaying & Qin, Jisen & Kong, Linghui, 2023. "Real-time dispatch of hydro-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system based on dynamic load reserve capacity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    7. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Li, Xiao, 2021. "Deriving pack rules for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power systems considering diminishing marginal benefit of energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    8. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Chang, Jianxia & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Refining long-term operation of large hydro–photovoltaic–wind hybrid systems by nesting response functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 359-371.
    9. Lu, Na & Wang, Guangyan & Su, Chengguo & Ren, Zaimin & Peng, Xiaoyue & Sui, Quan, 2024. "Medium- and long-term interval optimal scheduling of cascade hydropower-photovoltaic complementary systems considering multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    10. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Xu, Shitian & Liu, Pan & Li, Xiao & Cheng, Qian & Liu, Zheyuan, 2023. "Deriving long-term operating rules of the hydro-wind-PV hybrid energy system considering electricity price," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    12. Yang, Zhikai & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Deli & Ming, Bo & Li, He & Xia, Qian, 2021. "Sizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower plant considering the effects of climate change: A case study in the Longyangxia of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    13. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    14. Guo, Yi & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Liu, Pan & Wang, Yimin & Fang, Wei & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Evaluating effects of battery storage on day-ahead generation scheduling of large hydro–wind–photovoltaic complementary systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    15. Li, He & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Zuo, Qiting & Cheng, Lei & Tao, Jie & Huang, Kangdi & Yang, Zhikai & Han, Dongyang & Ming, Bo, 2022. "Integrating teleconnection factors into long-term complementary operating rules for hybrid power systems: A case study of Longyangxia hydro-photovoltaic plant in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 517-534.
    16. Guo, Yi & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Wang, Yimin & Zheng, Xudong & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Risk-averse day-ahead generation scheduling of hydro–wind–photovoltaic complementary systems considering the steady requirement of power delivery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    17. Chaoyang Chen & Hualing Liu & Yong Xiao & Fagen Zhu & Li Ding & Fuwen Yang, 2022. "Power Generation Scheduling for a Hydro-Wind-Solar Hybrid System: A Systematic Survey and Prospect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-31, November.
    18. Zhang, Pengfei & Ma, Chao & Lian, Jijian & Li, Peiyao & Liu, Lu, 2024. "Medium- and long-term operation optimization of the LCHES-WP hybrid power system considering the settlement rules of the electricity trading market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    19. Huang, Kangdi & Liu, Pan & Kim, Jong-Suk & Xu, Weifeng & Gong, Yu & Cheng, Qian & Zhou, Yong, 2023. "A model coupling current non-adjustable, coming adjustable and remaining stages for daily generation scheduling of a wind-solar-hydro complementary system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    20. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Li, Dingfang, 2021. "Identifying the effect of forecast uncertainties on hybrid power system operation: A case study of Longyangxia hydro–photovoltaic plant in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1303-1321.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:278:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223011945. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.