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A forecast-driven decision-making model for long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system

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  • Ding, Ziyu
  • Wen, Xin
  • Tan, Qiaofeng
  • Yang, Tiantian
  • Fang, Guohua
  • Lei, Xiaohui
  • Zhang, Yu
  • Wang, Hao

Abstract

Hydro-wind-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system has the potential to increase the integration of renewable energy sources into an existing grid. For the long-term operation of the system, due to the non-storable nature of wind and PV power, it is essentially to decide the optimal long-term carryover storage of cascade reservoirs. However, it remains a challenge due to high uncertainties of long-term forecasts and complicated hydraulic/electrical relationships between cascade reservoirs. In this study, a forecast-driven decision-making model is proposed for the hybrid system, which converts the multi-stage long-term operation process into a two-stage operation problem (including current stage and carryover stage) to avoid using longer-horizon forecast information with lower accuracy. First, the carryover stage energy surfaces (CESs) considering the forecast uncertainties of wind, solar and hydro resources are proposed to characterize carryover stage benefit quantitatively. Then a CESs-based forward decision-making optimization model is developed to guide the long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system. The applications in a hydro-wind-PV hybrid system of Yalong River basin results show that: compared with conventional operation, 1) power generation increases 9.03%; 2) in terms of the carryover storages control, the reservoir impounding and drawdown timing are delayed, and the drawdown depth is increased, which can be used to formulate better reservoir operation rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding, Ziyu & Wen, Xin & Tan, Qiaofeng & Yang, Tiantian & Fang, Guohua & Lei, Xiaohui & Zhang, Yu & Wang, Hao, 2021. "A forecast-driven decision-making model for long-term operation of a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:291:y:2021:i:c:s0306261921003202
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116820
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    2. Wang, Yanling & Wen, Xin & Su, Huaying & Qin, Jisen & Kong, Linghui, 2023. "Real-time dispatch of hydro-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system based on dynamic load reserve capacity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
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    4. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Qian & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Weifeng & Zheng, Yalian & Han, Dongyang & Xia, Jun, 2023. "An analytical method to evaluate curtailment of hydro–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems and its implication under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    5. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Jun & Ming, Bo & Cheng, Lei & Chen, Jie & Xie, Kang & Liu, Zheyuan & Li, Xiao, 2022. "Contribution of complementary operation in adapting to climate change impacts on a large-scale wind–solar–hydro system: A case study in the Yalong River Basin, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    6. Huang, Kangdi & Liu, Pan & Kim, Jong-Suk & Xu, Weifeng & Gong, Yu & Cheng, Qian & Zhou, Yong, 2023. "A model coupling current non-adjustable, coming adjustable and remaining stages for daily generation scheduling of a wind-solar-hydro complementary system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    7. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Li, Xiao, 2021. "Deriving pack rules for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power systems considering diminishing marginal benefit of energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    8. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Feng, Maoyuan & Huang, Kangdi & Wang, Yibo, 2022. "Identifying the functional form of operating rules for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
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    12. Chaoyang Chen & Hualing Liu & Yong Xiao & Fagen Zhu & Li Ding & Fuwen Yang, 2022. "Power Generation Scheduling for a Hydro-Wind-Solar Hybrid System: A Systematic Survey and Prospect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-31, November.
    13. Lei, Kaixuan & Chang, Jianxia & Wang, Xuebin & Guo, Aijun & Wang, Yimin & Ren, Chengqing, 2023. "Peak shaving and short-term economic operation of hydro-wind-PV hybrid system considering the uncertainty of wind and PV power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    14. Lu, Na & Wang, Guangyan & Su, Chengguo & Ren, Zaimin & Peng, Xiaoyue & Sui, Quan, 2024. "Medium- and long-term interval optimal scheduling of cascade hydropower-photovoltaic complementary systems considering multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    15. Sha Li & Zezhou Cao & Kuangqing Hu & Diyi Chen, 2023. "Performance Assessment for Primary Frequency Regulation of Variable-Speed Pumped Storage Plant in Isolated Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-16, January.
    16. Xie, Yuzuo & Guo, Shenglian & Zhong, Sirui & He, Zhipeng & Liu, Pan & Zhou, Yanlai, 2024. "Optimal allocation of flood prevention storage and dynamic operation of water levels to increase cascade reservoir hydropower generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    17. Li, Xiao & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Cheng, Qian & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Shitian & Zheng, Yalian, 2023. "Strategic bidding for a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system considering the profit beyond forecast time," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 277-289.
    18. Wang, Jin & Zhao, Zhipeng & Zhou, Jinglin & Cheng, Chuntian & Su, Huaying, 2024. "Developing operating rules for a hydro–wind–solar hybrid system considering peak-shaving demands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    19. Li, Yan & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Wang, Yimin & Liu, Pan & Guo, Pengcheng, 2022. "Identifying effective operating rules for large hydro–solar–wind hybrid systems based on an implicit stochastic optimization framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    20. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

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