IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v178y2021icp1303-1321.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying the effect of forecast uncertainties on hybrid power system operation: A case study of Longyangxia hydro–photovoltaic plant in China

Author

Listed:
  • Gong, Yu
  • Liu, Pan
  • Ming, Bo
  • Li, Dingfang

Abstract

Power system operations are unavoidably influenced by forecast uncertainties. The forecast uncertainty's effect on operations was quantified in individual systems, however, was seldom investigated in a hybrid system. This study aims to quantify the effect of forecast uncertainties on the hybrid hydro–photovoltaic system operation. First, the operation model is built considering streamflow and photovoltaic forecast uncertainties with long- and short-time scales. Second, total release uncertainty is determined from the sum of squares for releases under different forecast scenarios. Finally, a variance partitioning method is used to divide the total release uncertainty into the uncertainties induced by individual forecast errors. Longyangxia hybrid hydro–photovoltaic power plant from China was selected as a case study. Results provide following insights: (1) long-term inflow forecast uncertainty accounts for 98.89% of the contribution to the long-term release uncertainty, while photovoltaic uncertainty accounts for 1.11%; (2) long-term inflow forecast uncertainty still dominates the short-term release uncertainty, with the contribution of 62.06%; and (3) the total release uncertainty decreases in long-term hybrid operation compared with the reservoir operation, indicating the complementary relationship between long-term hydropower and photovoltaic power. These implications highlight the importance of improving forecast accuracies for varied energy sources at different time scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Li, Dingfang, 2021. "Identifying the effect of forecast uncertainties on hybrid power system operation: A case study of Longyangxia hydro–photovoltaic plant in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 1303-1321.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:178:y:2021:i:c:p:1303-1321
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.06.104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148121009708
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2021.06.104?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jurasz, Jakub & Ciapała, Bartłomiej, 2017. "Integrating photovoltaics into energy systems by using a run-off-river power plant with pondage to smooth energy exchange with the power gird," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 21-35.
    2. Pan Liu & Shenglian Guo & Xiaowei Xu & Jionghong Chen, 2011. "Derivation of Aggregation-Based Joint Operating Rule Curves for Cascade Hydropower Reservoirs," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3177-3200, October.
    3. David L. McCollum & Wenji Zhou & Christoph Bertram & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Valentina Bosetti & Sebastian Busch & Jacques Després & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Marianne Fay & Oliver Fricko & Sh, 2018. "Author Correction: Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 699-699, August.
    4. Huang, Kangdi & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Kim, Jong-Suk & Gong, Yu, 2021. "Economic operation of a wind-solar-hydro complementary system considering risks of output shortage, power curtailment and spilled water," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    5. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yan-hui & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yong-qian & Li, Li & Wang, Zheng, 2019. "Mid-to-long term wind and photovoltaic power generation prediction based on copula function and long short term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 181-191.
    6. Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye & Zhang, Jianhua & Zheng, Dehua, 2018. "Short-term photovoltaic solar power forecasting using a hybrid Wavelet-PSO-SVM model based on SCADA and Meteorological information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 357-367.
    7. Eriksson, E.L.V. & Gray, E.MacA., 2019. "Optimization of renewable hybrid energy systems – A multi-objective approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 971-999.
    8. Ben Ammar, Rim & Ben Ammar, Mohsen & Oualha, Abdelmajid, 2020. "Photovoltaic power forecast using empirical models and artificial intelligence approaches for water pumping systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1016-1028.
    9. Jurasz, Jakub & Dąbek, Paweł B. & Kaźmierczak, Bartosz & Kies, Alexander & Wdowikowski, Marcin, 2018. "Large scale complementary solar and wind energy sources coupled with pumped-storage hydroelectricity for Lower Silesia (Poland)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 183-192.
    10. Xu, Weifeng & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Zhou, Yong & Xia, Qian & Gong, Yu & Liu, Yini, 2021. "Multi-step wind speed prediction by combining a WRF simulation and an error correction strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 772-782.
    11. Bracco, Stefano & Delfino, Federico & Ferro, Giulio & Pagnini, Luisa & Robba, Michela & Rossi, Mansueto, 2018. "Energy planning of sustainable districts: Towards the exploitation of small size intermittent renewables in urban areas," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2288-2297.
    12. Mohseni, Soheil & Brent, Alan C. & Burmester, Daniel, 2020. "A comparison of metaheuristics for the optimal capacity planning of an isolated, battery-less, hydrogen-based micro-grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    13. Feng, Zhong-kai & Niu, Wen-jing & Cheng, Chun-tian, 2019. "China’s large-scale hydropower system: operation characteristics, modeling challenge and dimensionality reduction possibilities," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 805-818.
    14. Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Zhang, Jingwen, 2019. "Hydropower reservoir reoperation to adapt to large-scale photovoltaic power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 268-279.
    15. Xu, Bin & Zhu, Feilin & Zhong, Ping-an & Chen, Juan & Liu, Weifeng & Ma, Yufei & Guo, Le & Deng, Xiaoliang, 2019. "Identifying long-term effects of using hydropower to complement wind power uncertainty through stochastic programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    16. David L. McCollum & Wenji Zhou & Christoph Bertram & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Valentina Bosetti & Sebastian Busch & Jacques Després & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Marianne Fay & Oliver Fricko & Sh, 2018. "Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 589-599, July.
    17. Li, He & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Ming, Bo & Cheng, Lei & Yang, Zhikai, 2019. "Long-term complementary operation of a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power plant using explicit stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 863-875.
    18. Lubega, William Naggaga & Stillwell, Ashlynn S., 2018. "Maintaining electric grid reliability under hydrologic drought and heat wave conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 538-549.
    19. Cheng, Qian & Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Huang, Kangdi & Gong, Yu & Li, Xiao & Zheng, Yalian, 2021. "Solving hydro unit commitment problems with multiple hydraulic heads based on a two-layer nested optimization method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 317-326.
    20. Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Zhou, Yanlai & Gao, Shida & Li, He, 2018. "Robust hydroelectric unit commitment considering integration of large-scale photovoltaic power: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1341-1352.
    21. VanDeventer, William & Jamei, Elmira & Thirunavukkarasu, Gokul Sidarth & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Soon, Tey Kok & Horan, Ben & Mekhilef, Saad & Stojcevski, Alex, 2019. "Short-term PV power forecasting using hybrid GASVM technique," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 367-379.
    22. Liu, Weifeng & Zhu, Feilin & Zhao, Tongtiegang & Wang, Hao & Lei, Xiaohui & Zhong, Ping-an & Fthenakis, Vasilis, 2020. "Optimal stochastic scheduling of hydropower-based compensation for combined wind and photovoltaic power outputs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    23. Biswas, Partha P. & Suganthan, P.N. & Qu, B.Y. & Amaratunga, Gehan A.J., 2018. "Multiobjective economic-environmental power dispatch with stochastic wind-solar-small hydro power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1039-1057.
    24. Zambrano, Andres Felipe & Giraldo, Luis Felipe, 2020. "Solar irradiance forecasting models without on-site training measurements," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 557-566.
    25. Lewis C. King & Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh, 2018. "Implications of net energy-return-on-investment for a low-carbon energy transition," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 334-340, April.
    26. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Liu, Yini & Huang, Kangdi, 2021. "Robust operation interval of a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic power system to cope with emergencies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    27. Han, Li & Jing, Huitian & Zhang, Rongchang & Gao, Zhiyu, 2019. "Wind power forecast based on improved Long Short Term Memory network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    28. Raza, Syed Shabbar & Janajreh, Isam & Ghenai, Chaouki, 2014. "Sustainability index approach as a selection criteria for energy storage system of an intermittent renewable energy source," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 909-920.
    29. Sharadga, Hussein & Hajimirza, Shima & Balog, Robert S., 2020. "Time series forecasting of solar power generation for large-scale photovoltaic plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 797-807.
    30. Pan Liu & Shenglian Guo & Lihua Xiong & Wei Li & Honggang Zhang, 2006. "Deriving Reservoir Refill Operating Rules by Using the Proposed DPNS Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(3), pages 337-357, June.
    31. Li, Fang-Fang & Qiu, Jun, 2016. "Multi-objective optimization for integrated hydro–photovoltaic power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 377-384.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Shitian & Liu, Pan & Li, Xiao & Cheng, Qian & Liu, Zheyuan, 2023. "Deriving long-term operating rules of the hydro-wind-PV hybrid energy system considering electricity price," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    2. Yang, Zhikai & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Deli & Ming, Bo & Li, He & Xia, Qian, 2021. "Sizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower plant considering the effects of climate change: A case study in the Longyangxia of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    3. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Shang, Jia’nan & Jurasz, Jakub & Liu, Pan, 2023. "A holistic techno-economic evaluation framework for sizing renewable power plant in a hydro-based hybrid generation system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    4. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Chang, Jianxia & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Refining long-term operation of large hydro–photovoltaic–wind hybrid systems by nesting response functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 359-371.
    5. Guo, Yi & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Wang, Yimin & Zheng, Xudong & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Risk-averse day-ahead generation scheduling of hydro–wind–photovoltaic complementary systems considering the steady requirement of power delivery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    6. Liu, Yuan & Ji, Changming & Wang, Yi & Zhang, Yanke & Jiang, Zhiqiang & Ma, Qiumei & Hou, Xiaoning, 2023. "Effect of the quality of streamflow forecasts on the operation of cascade hydropower stations using stochastic optimization models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Feng, Maoyuan & Huang, Kangdi & Wang, Yibo, 2022. "Identifying the functional form of operating rules for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Zhang, Jingwen, 2019. "Hydropower reservoir reoperation to adapt to large-scale photovoltaic power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 268-279.
    3. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Ming, Bo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Li, Xiao, 2021. "Deriving pack rules for hydro–photovoltaic hybrid power systems considering diminishing marginal benefit of energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Liu, Yini & Huang, Kangdi, 2021. "Robust operation interval of a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic power system to cope with emergencies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    5. Li, He & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Huang, Kangdi & Feng, Maoyuan & He, Shaokun & Ming, Bo, 2021. "Deriving adaptive long-term complementary operating rules for a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power plant using ensemble Kalman filter," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    6. Li, Xiao & Liu, Pan & Wang, Yibo & Yang, Zhikai & Gong, Yu & An, Rihui & Huang, Kangdi & Wen, Yan, 2022. "Derivation of operating rule curves for cascade hydropower reservoirs considering the spot market: A case study of the China's Qing River cascade-reservoir system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 1028-1038.
    7. Li, He & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Zuo, Qiting & Cheng, Lei & Tao, Jie & Huang, Kangdi & Yang, Zhikai & Han, Dongyang & Ming, Bo, 2022. "Integrating teleconnection factors into long-term complementary operating rules for hybrid power systems: A case study of Longyangxia hydro-photovoltaic plant in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 517-534.
    8. Guo, Yi & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Wang, Yimin & Zheng, Xudong & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Risk-averse day-ahead generation scheduling of hydro–wind–photovoltaic complementary systems considering the steady requirement of power delivery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    9. Cheng, Qian & Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Huang, Kangdi & Gong, Yu & Li, Xiao & Zheng, Yalian, 2021. "Solving hydro unit commitment problems with multiple hydraulic heads based on a two-layer nested optimization method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 317-326.
    10. Wang, Yanling & Wen, Xin & Su, Huaying & Qin, Jisen & Kong, Linghui, 2023. "Real-time dispatch of hydro-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid system based on dynamic load reserve capacity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    11. Chaoyang Chen & Hualing Liu & Yong Xiao & Fagen Zhu & Li Ding & Fuwen Yang, 2022. "Power Generation Scheduling for a Hydro-Wind-Solar Hybrid System: A Systematic Survey and Prospect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-31, November.
    12. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Qian & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Weifeng & Zheng, Yalian & Han, Dongyang & Xia, Jun, 2023. "An analytical method to evaluate curtailment of hydro–photovoltaic hybrid energy systems and its implication under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    13. Zhang, Yusheng & Ma, Chao & Yang, Yang & Pang, Xiulan & Liu, Lu & Lian, Jijian, 2021. "Study on short-term optimal operation of cascade hydro-photovoltaic hybrid systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    14. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Feng, Maoyuan & Cheng, Lei & Ming, Bo & Luo, Xinran & Liu, Weibo & Xu, Weifeng & Huang, Kangdi & Xia, Jun, 2023. "Complementary operation with wind and photovoltaic power induces the decrease in hydropower efficiency," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    15. Yang, Zhikai & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Liu, Deli & Ming, Bo & Li, He & Xia, Qian, 2021. "Sizing utility-scale photovoltaic power generation for integration into a hydropower plant considering the effects of climate change: A case study in the Longyangxia of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    16. Yang, Zhe & Wang, Yufeng & Yang, Kan, 2022. "The stochastic short-term hydropower generation scheduling considering uncertainty in load output forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    17. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Shang, Jia’nan & Jurasz, Jakub & Liu, Pan, 2023. "A holistic techno-economic evaluation framework for sizing renewable power plant in a hydro-based hybrid generation system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    18. Li, Xiao & Liu, Pan & Cheng, Lei & Cheng, Qian & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Shitian & Zheng, Yalian, 2023. "Strategic bidding for a hydro-wind-photovoltaic hybrid system considering the profit beyond forecast time," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 277-289.
    19. Jiang, Jianhua & Ming, Bo & Liu, Pan & Huang, Qiang & Guo, Yi & Chang, Jianxia & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "Refining long-term operation of large hydro–photovoltaic–wind hybrid systems by nesting response functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 359-371.
    20. Cheng, Qian & Liu, Pan & Xia, Jun & Ming, Bo & Cheng, Lei & Chen, Jie & Xie, Kang & Liu, Zheyuan & Li, Xiao, 2022. "Contribution of complementary operation in adapting to climate change impacts on a large-scale wind–solar–hydro system: A case study in the Yalong River Basin, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:178:y:2021:i:c:p:1303-1321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.