Electrified powertrain sizing for vehicle fleets of car makers considering total ownership costs and CO2 emission legislation scenarios

Developing effective computer-aided engineering (CAE) tools is currently a compelling need for fostering industrialization and widespread diffusion of electrified road vehicles. A CAE methodology is proposed in this paper for sizing electrified road vehicle powertrains at an overall car maker vehicle fleet level by considering different evaluation criteria involving retail price, compliance with current and future regulatory CO2 emission requirements, drivability, and real-world operative costs. A case study is performed on a group of different vehicle models embedding the same electrified powertrain, and different vehicle electrification levels are assessed. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) is identified as the most robust propulsion system architecture solution considering different sizing targets and 2030 oriented regulatory scenarios. This suggests that, from the perspective of a car maker, investing in research and development and in upgrade of current vehicle production facilities to propose highly electrified vehicles in the market can be a more strategic and successful approach than a conservative strategy which would restrain the economic investments and limit the overall electrification level of all vehicle models. The considerably higher retail price that users are required to pay when purchasing a fleet of plug-in HEVs may in fact be paid off and eventually reveal beneficial in a long term given the avoidance of paying a regulatory CO2 sanction and the consistent reduction in the monthly operative costs in terms of fuel and electricity. Vehicle designers can implement the presented CAE methodology for assessing electrified vehicle sizing options at the overall car maker level based on realistic use case scenarios and different potential CO2 emission regulation scenarios.