IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i14p5575-d1201016.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Younes Mohammadi

    (Department of Applied Physics and Electronics, Umeå University, 90187 Umeå, Sweden)

  • Aleksey Palstev

    (Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, 90187 Umeå, Sweden)

  • Boštjan Polajžer

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Maribor, 2000 Maribor, Slovenia)

  • Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh

    (Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4, 20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Davood Khodadad

    (Department of Applied Physics and Electronics, Umeå University, 90187 Umeå, Sweden)

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive study of winter temperatures in Norway and northern Sweden, covering a period of 50 to 70 years. The analysis utilizes Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to investigate temperature trends at six selected locations. The results demonstrate an overall long-term rise in temperatures, which can be attributed to global warming. However, when investigating variations in highest, lowest, and average temperatures for December, January, and February, 50% of the cases exhibit a significant decrease in recent years, indicating colder winters, especially in December. The study also explores the variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variations as a crucial climate factor over the last 15 years, estimating a possible 20% decrease/slowdown within the first half of the 21st century. Subsequently, the study investigates potential similarities between winter AMOC and winter temperatures in the mid to high latitudes over the chosen locations. Additionally, the study examines another important climatic index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and explores possible similarities between the winter NAO index and winter temperatures. The findings reveal a moderate observed lagged correlation for AMOC-smoothed temperatures, particularly in December, along the coastal areas of Norway. Conversely, a stronger lagged correlation is observed between the winter NAO index and temperatures in northwest Sweden and coastal areas of Norway. Thus, NAO may influence both AMOC and winter temperatures (NAO drives both AMOC and temperatures). Furthermore, the paper investigates the impact of colder winters, whether caused by AMOC, NAO, or other factors like winds or sea ice changes, on electrical power and energy systems, highlighting potential challenges such as reduced electricity generation, increased electricity consumption, and the vulnerability of power grids to winter storms. The study concludes by emphasizing the importance of enhancing the knowledge of electrical engineering researchers regarding important climate indices, AMOC and NAO, the possible associations between them and winter temperatures, and addressing the challenges posed by the likelihood of colder winters in power systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Younes Mohammadi & Aleksey Palstev & Boštjan Polajžer & Seyed Mahdi Miraftabzadeh & Davood Khodadad, 2023. "Investigating Winter Temperatures in Sweden and Norway: Potential Relationships with Climatic Indices and Effects on Electrical Power and Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-34, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:14:p:5575-:d:1201016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/14/5575/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/14/5575/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Höltinger, Stefan & Mikovits, Christian & Schmidt, Johannes & Baumgartner, Johann & Arheimer, Berit & Lindström, Göran & Wetterlund, Elisabeth, 2019. "The impact of climatic extreme events on the feasibility of fully renewable power systems: A case study for Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 695-713.
    2. Robert Fischer & Erik Elfgren & Andrea Toffolo, 2020. "Towards Optimal Sustainable Energy Systems in Nordic Municipalities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Mata, Érika & Wanemark, Joel & Nik, Vahid M. & Sasic Kalagasidis, Angela, 2019. "Economic feasibility of building retrofitting mitigation potentials: Climate change uncertainties for Swedish cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1022-1035.
    4. Harry L. Bryden & Hannah R. Longworth & Stuart A. Cunningham, 2005. "Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7068), pages 655-657, December.
    5. Niyazi Gündüz & Sinan Küfeoğlu & Matti Lehtonen, 2017. "Impacts of Natural Disasters on Swedish Electric Power Policy: A Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11, February.
    6. A. T. D. Perera & Vahid M. Nik & Deliang Chen & Jean-Louis Scartezzini & Tianzhen Hong, 2020. "Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 150-159, February.
    7. Haddeland, I. & Hole, J. & Holmqvist, E. & Koestler, V. & Sidelnikova, M. & Veie, C.A. & Wold, M., 2022. "Effects of climate on renewable energy sources and electricity supply in Norway," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 625-637.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raquel Gómez-Beas & Eva Contreras & María José Polo & Cristina Aguilar, 2024. "Stochastic Flow Analysis for Optimization of the Operationality in Run-of-River Hydroelectric Plants in Mountain Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Younes Mohammadi & Boštjan Polajžer & Aleksey Palstev & Davood Khodadad, 2024. "Climate Change and the Impacts on Power and Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-2, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Perera, A.T.D. & Hong, Tianzhen, 2023. "Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Walker, Linus & Hischier, Illias & Schlueter, Arno, 2022. "Scenario-based robustness assessment of building system life cycle performance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    3. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    4. Gonçalves, Ana & Marques, Margarida Correia & Loureiro, Sílvia & Nieto, Raquel & Liberato, Margarida L.R., 2023. "Disruption risk analysis of the overhead power lines in Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    5. Yang, Yuchen & Javanroodi, Kavan & Nik, Vahid M., 2021. "Climate change and energy performance of European residential building stocks – A comprehensive impact assessment using climate big data from the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    6. Phoebe Koundouri & Angelos Alamanos & Stathis Devves & Conrad Landis & Kostantinos Dellis, 2024. "Innovations for Holistic and Sustainable Transitions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-16, October.
    7. Yu, Min Gyung & Pavlak, Gregory S., 2023. "Risk-aware sizing and transactive control of building portfolios with thermal energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    8. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Mikovits, Christian & Wetterlund, Elisabeth & Wehrle, Sebastian & Baumgartner, Johann & Schmidt, Johannes, 2021. "Stronger together: Multi-annual variability of hydrogen production supported by wind power in Sweden," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PB).
    11. Sánchez, M.N. & Soutullo, S. & Olmedo, R. & Bravo, D. & Castaño, S. & Jiménez, M.J., 2020. "An experimental methodology to assess the climate impact on the energy performance of buildings: A ten-year evaluation in temperate and cold desert areas," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    12. Kapica, Jacek & Jurasz, Jakub & Canales, Fausto A. & Bloomfield, Hannah & Guezgouz, Mohammed & De Felice, Matteo & Zbigniew, Kobus, 2024. "The potential impact of climate change on European renewable energy droughts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    13. Mariia Kozlova & Alena Lohrmann, 2021. "Steering Renewable Energy Investments in Favor of Energy System Reliability: A Call for a Hybrid Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    14. Yan, Rujing & Wang, Jiangjiang & Wang, Jiahao & Tian, Lei & Tang, Saiqiu & Wang, Yuwei & Zhang, Jing & Cheng, Youliang & Li, Yuan, 2022. "A two-stage stochastic-robust optimization for a hybrid renewable energy CCHP system considering multiple scenario-interval uncertainties," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    15. Sinha, Avik & Tiwari, Sunil & Saha, Tanaya, 2024. "Modeling the behavior of renewable energy market: Understanding the moderation of climate risk factors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Gabriel S. Nambafu & Aaron M. Hollas & Shuyuan Zhang & Peter S. Rice & Daria Boglaienko & John L. Fulton & Miller Li & Qian Huang & Yu Zhu & David M. Reed & Vincent L. Sprenkle & Guosheng Li, 2024. "Phosphonate-based iron complex for a cost-effective and long cycling aqueous iron redox flow battery," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    17. Pariman Boostani & Giuseppe Pellegrini-Masini & Jørgen Klein, 2024. "The Role of Community Energy Schemes in Reducing Energy Poverty and Promoting Social Inclusion: A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-29, July.
    18. Li, He & Liu, Pan & Guo, Shenglian & Cheng, Lei & Huang, Kangdi & Feng, Maoyuan & He, Shaokun & Ming, Bo, 2021. "Deriving adaptive long-term complementary operating rules for a large-scale hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power plant using ensemble Kalman filter," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    19. Fahlstedt, Oskar & Temeljotov-Salaj, Alenka & Lohne, Jardar & Bohne, Rolf André, 2022. "Holistic assessment of carbon abatement strategies in building refurbishment literature — A scoping review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    20. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:14:p:5575-:d:1201016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.