IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v343y2023ics030626192300569x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short–term global solar radiation forecasting based on an improved method for sunshine duration prediction and public weather forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Qin, Shujing
  • Liu, Zhihe
  • Qiu, Rangjian
  • Luo, Yufeng
  • Wu, Jingwei
  • Zhang, Baozhong
  • Wu, Lifeng
  • Agathokleous, Evgenios

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of daily global solar radiation (Rs) is important for photovoltaic power and other sectors. Numerical models coupled with public weather forecasts information is a feasible method to predict short–term daily Rs. Here, we propose a novel sunshine duration converting method (n_new) based on forecasted air temperature and weather types data, which we validated using measurements from 86 radiation stations. A widely-used, generalized sunshine–based Rs model (Rs_n) was then coupled with the n_new method (Rs_n new) for forecasting daily Rs. This was further compared to Rs_n incorporated with the common sunshine duration converting method (n_com) using only weather types data (Rs_n com) and a recently developed generalized temperature–based model (Rs_T). The results indicated that the n_new method produced better estimates than the n_com method, as indicated by increased mean correlation coefficient (R; 13.0%–24.5%) and index of agreement (dIA; 2.9%–9.5%) and decreased mean root mean squared error (RMSE; 12.8%–14.8%) for the 1–7 days lead time over 86 sites. The Rs_n new model improved the accuracy for 98% of sites when compared to the Rs_n com model, with mean values of R and dIA increasing by 7.7%–11.0% and 2.1%–4.8% and that of RMSE decreasing by 9.7%–12.5% for the 1–7 days lead time. The results suggest that the Rs_n new model is advantageous in short–term forecasts. The Rs_n new model ranked first for 52.3%–74.4% of sites for the 1–7 days lead time, followed by the Rs_T model (25.6%–47.7%). Moreover, there was generally a better performance for the Rs_n new model to forecast daily Rs at a longer lead time. Therefore, the Rs_n new model using weather forecasts information is highly recommended to forecast short–term daily Rs.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin, Shujing & Liu, Zhihe & Qiu, Rangjian & Luo, Yufeng & Wu, Jingwei & Zhang, Baozhong & Wu, Lifeng & Agathokleous, Evgenios, 2023. "Short–term global solar radiation forecasting based on an improved method for sunshine duration prediction and public weather forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:343:y:2023:i:c:s030626192300569x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192300569X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121205?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Junliang & Chen, Baiquan & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Lu, Xianghui & Xiang, Youzhen, 2018. "Evaluation and development of temperature-based empirical models for estimating daily global solar radiation in humid regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 903-914.
    2. Chen, Ji-Long & He, Lei & Yang, Hong & Ma, Maohua & Chen, Qiao & Wu, Sheng-Jun & Xiao, Zuo-lin, 2019. "Empirical models for estimating monthly global solar radiation: A most comprehensive review and comparative case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 91-111.
    3. Kostić, Rastko & Mikulović, Jovan, 2017. "The empirical models for estimating solar insolation in Serbia by using meteorological data on cloudiness," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 1281-1293.
    4. Yang, Yang & Cui, Yuanlai & Luo, Yufeng & Lyu, Xinwei & Traore, Seydou & Khan, Shahbaz & Wang, Weiguang, 2016. "Short-term forecasting of daily reference evapotranspiration using the Penman-Monteith model and public weather forecasts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 329-339.
    5. Besharat, Fariba & Dehghan, Ali A. & Faghih, Ahmad R., 2013. "Empirical models for estimating global solar radiation: A review and case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 798-821.
    6. Yıldırım, H. Başak & Teke, Ahmet & Antonanzas-Torres, Fernando, 2018. "Evaluation of classical parametric models for estimating solar radiation in the Eastern Mediterranean region of Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2053-2065.
    7. Gong, Xuewen & Qiu, Rangjian & Ge, Jiankun & Bo, Guokui & Ping, Yinglu & Xin, Qingsong & Wang, Shunsheng, 2021. "Evapotranspiration partitioning of greenhouse grown tomato using a modified Priestley–Taylor model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    8. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Ma, Xin & Bai, Hua, 2019. "Evaluation and development of empirical models for estimating daily and monthly mean daily diffuse horizontal solar radiation for different climatic regions of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 168-186.
    9. Luo, Yufeng & Chang, Xiaomin & Peng, Shizhang & Khan, Shahbaz & Wang, Weiguang & Zheng, Qiang & Cai, Xueliang, 2014. "Short-term forecasting of daily reference evapotranspiration using the Hargreaves–Samani model and temperature forecasts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 42-51.
    10. Meenal, R. & Selvakumar, A. Immanuel, 2018. "Assessment of SVM, empirical and ANN based solar radiation prediction models with most influencing input parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 324-343.
    11. Qiu, Rangjian & Li, Longan & Wu, Lifeng & Agathokleous, Evgenios & Liu, Chunwei & Zhang, Baozhong & Luo, Yufeng & Sun, Shanlei, 2022. "Modeling daily global solar radiation using only temperature data: Past, development, and future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    12. Urraca, R. & Martinez-de-Pison, E. & Sanz-Garcia, A. & Antonanzas, J. & Antonanzas-Torres, F., 2017. "Estimation methods for global solar radiation: Case study evaluation of five different approaches in central Spain," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1098-1113.
    13. Yufeng Luo & Seydou Traore & Xinwei Lyu & Weiguang Wang & Ying Wang & Yongyu Xie & Xiyun Jiao & Guy Fipps, 2015. "Medium Range Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting by Using ANN and Public Weather Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3863-3876, August.
    14. Despotovic, Milan & Nedic, Vladimir & Despotovic, Danijela & Cvetanovic, Slobodan, 2015. "Review and statistical analysis of different global solar radiation sunshine models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1869-1880.
    15. Yang, Yang & Cui, Yuanlai & Bai, Kaihua & Luo, Tongyuan & Dai, Junfeng & Wang, Weiguang & Luo, Yufeng, 2019. "Short-term forecasting of daily reference evapotranspiration using the reduced-set Penman-Monteith model and public weather forecasts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 70-80.
    16. Hassan, Gasser E. & Youssef, M. Elsayed & Mohamed, Zahraa E. & Ali, Mohamed A. & Hanafy, Ahmed A., 2016. "New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 437-450.
    17. Aleh Cherp & Vadim Vinichenko & Jale Tosun & Joel A. Gordon & Jessica Jewell, 2021. "National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 742-754, July.
    18. Zhang, Jianyuan & Zhao, Li & Deng, Shuai & Xu, Weicong & Zhang, Ying, 2017. "A critical review of the models used to estimate solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 314-329.
    19. Jie Ye & Chao Wang & Chao Gao & Tao Fu & Chaohui Yang & Guoping Ren & Jian Lü & Shungui Zhou & Yujie Xiong, 2022. "Solar-driven methanogenesis with ultrahigh selectivity by turning down H2 production at biotic-abiotic interface," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Almorox, Javier & Bocco, Mónica & Willington, Enrique, 2013. "Estimation of daily global solar radiation from measured temperatures at Cañada de Luque, Córdoba, Argentina," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 382-387.
    21. Qiu, Rangjian & Li, Longan & Liu, Chunwei & Wang, Zhenchang & Zhang, Baozhong & Liu, Zhandong, 2022. "Evapotranspiration estimation using a modified crop coefficient model in a rotated rice-winter wheat system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    22. Prieto, Jesús-Ignacio & García, David, 2022. "Global solar radiation models: A critical review from the point of view of homogeneity and case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    23. Yang, Yang & Luo, Yufeng & Wu, Conglin & Zheng, Hezhen & Zhang, Lei & Cui, Yuanlai & Sun, Ningning & Wang, Li, 2019. "Evaluation of six equations for daily reference evapotranspiration estimating using public weather forecast message for different climate regions across China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 386-399.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qin, Shujing & Fan, Yangzhen & Li, Sien & Cheng, Lei & Zhang, Lu & Xi, Haiyang & Qiu, Rangjian & Liu, Pan, 2023. "Partitioning of available energy in canopy and soil surface in croplands with different irrigation methods," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    2. Zhang, Lei & Zhao, Xin & Zhu, Ge & He, Jun & Chen, Jian & Chen, Zhicheng & Traore, Seydou & Liu, Junguo & Singh, Vijay P., 2023. "Short-term daily reference evapotranspiration forecasting using temperature-based deep learning models in different climate zones in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qiu, Rangjian & Li, Longan & Wu, Lifeng & Agathokleous, Evgenios & Liu, Chunwei & Zhang, Baozhong & Luo, Yufeng & Sun, Shanlei, 2022. "Modeling daily global solar radiation using only temperature data: Past, development, and future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Chen, Ji-Long & He, Lei & Yang, Hong & Ma, Maohua & Chen, Qiao & Wu, Sheng-Jun & Xiao, Zuo-lin, 2019. "Empirical models for estimating monthly global solar radiation: A most comprehensive review and comparative case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 91-111.
    3. Qiu, Rangjian & Luo, Yufeng & Wu, Jingwei & Zhang, Baozhong & Liu, Zhihe & Agathokleous, Evgenios & Yang, Xiumei & Hu, Wei & Clothier, Brent, 2023. "Short–term forecasting of daily evapotranspiration from rice using a modified Priestley–Taylor model and public weather forecasts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    4. Prieto, Jesús-Ignacio & García, David, 2022. "Global solar radiation models: A critical review from the point of view of homogeneity and case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    5. Fan, Junliang & Chen, Baiquan & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Lu, Xianghui & Xiang, Youzhen, 2018. "Evaluation and development of temperature-based empirical models for estimating daily global solar radiation in humid regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 903-914.
    6. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Zeng, Wenzhi & Wang, Xiukang & Zou, Haiyang, 2019. "Empirical and machine learning models for predicting daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration: A review and case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 186-212.
    7. Lu, Yunbo & Wang, Lunche & Zhu, Canming & Zou, Ling & Zhang, Ming & Feng, Lan & Cao, Qian, 2023. "Predicting surface solar radiation using a hybrid radiative Transfer–Machine learning model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. Feng, Yu & Hao, Weiping & Li, Haoru & Cui, Ningbo & Gong, Daozhi & Gao, Lili, 2020. "Machine learning models to quantify and map daily global solar radiation and photovoltaic power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Zang, Haixiang & Cheng, Lilin & Ding, Tao & Cheung, Kwok W. & Wang, Miaomiao & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2020. "Application of functional deep belief network for estimating daily global solar radiation: A case study in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    10. Dariusz Czekalski & Paweł Obstawski & Tomasz Bakoń, 2020. "Possibilities to Estimate Daily Solar Radiation on 2-Axis Tracking Plane Using a Model Based on Temperature Amplitude," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-19, November.
    11. Zang, Haixiang & Jiang, Xin & Cheng, LiLin & Zhang, Fengchun & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2022. "Combined empirical and machine learning modeling method for estimation of daily global solar radiation for general meteorological observation stations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 795-808.
    12. Zhang, Lei & Zhao, Xin & Zhu, Ge & He, Jun & Chen, Jian & Chen, Zhicheng & Traore, Seydou & Liu, Junguo & Singh, Vijay P., 2023. "Short-term daily reference evapotranspiration forecasting using temperature-based deep learning models in different climate zones in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    13. Bouchouicha, Kada & Hassan, Muhammed A. & Bailek, Nadjem & Aoun, Nouar, 2019. "Estimating the global solar irradiation and optimizing the error estimates under Algerian desert climate," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 844-858.
    14. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Wang, Xiukang & Lu, Xianghui & Xiang, Youzhen, 2018. "Evaluating the effect of air pollution on global and diffuse solar radiation prediction using support vector machine modeling based on sunshine duration and air temperature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 732-747.
    15. Seydou Traore & Yufeng Luo & Guy Fipps, 2017. "Gene-Expression Programming for Short-Term Forecasting of Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Using Public Weather Forecast Information," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(15), pages 4891-4908, December.
    16. Chang, Kai & Zhang, Qingyuan, 2019. "Improvement of the hourly global solar model and solar radiation for air-conditioning design in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1232-1238.
    17. Jahani, Babak & Dinpashoh, Y. & Raisi Nafchi, Atefeh, 2017. "Evaluation and development of empirical models for estimating daily solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 878-891.
    18. Qiu, Rangjian & Li, Longan & Liu, Chunwei & Wang, Zhenchang & Zhang, Baozhong & Liu, Zhandong, 2022. "Evapotranspiration estimation using a modified crop coefficient model in a rotated rice-winter wheat system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    19. Yang, Liu & Cao, Qimeng & Yu, Ying & Liu, Yan, 2020. "Comparison of daily diffuse radiation models in regions of China without solar radiation measurement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Guosheng Duan & Lifeng Wu & Fa Liu & Yicheng Wang & Shaofei Wu, 2022. "Improvement in Solar-Radiation Forecasting Based on Evolutionary KNEA Method and Numerical Weather Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:343:y:2023:i:c:s030626192300569x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.