IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v177y2016icp248-263.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards modeling soil texture-specific sensitivity of wheat yield and water balance to climatic changes

Author

Listed:
  • Nouri, Milad
  • Homaee, Mehdi
  • Bannayan, Mohammad
  • Hoogenboom, Gerrit

Abstract

Climate change has significant influences on agricultural water management particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Increased water scarcity and consecutive droughts in these regions must be extensively taken into considerations in any water management scheme dealing with agricultural production. This study was aimed to find out climate changes impacts on soil water balance components and rainfed wheat yield, phenology and failure across eight different soil textural classes over 2070–2099. In order to project the future conditions, outputs of five climate models under RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 downscaled by MarkSimGCM were used to drive the CSM-CERES-Wheat v4.6 model. Results indicated that crop-growing season will be shorter by 10.7–21.6days under RCP-4.5 and 25.8–45.5days under RCP-8.5. Averaged across all investigated soils, the crop yield would decline in four studied large areas mainly due to drought and inappropriate planting date. Yield loss, averaged across all sites, are likely to be higher in finer-texture soils. More frequent harvest failure can occur over the 2080s particularly in the finer-textured soils at most studied sites. Deep drainage and runoff are expected to drop in almost all soils due to rainfall deficit. Decline of evaporation appears likely as a consequence of drought, shorter growing period and change of evapotranspiration partitioning. The crop model projected larger reduction in drainage and evaporation for coarse soils and in runoff for finer-textured soils. Higher transpiration, averaged over all sites, in coarser soils can be attributed to considerable decline of nitrogen leaching and higher subsoil water content. Furthermore, there would be an increase in soil water storage under most soil-climate simulation runs particularly in heavy-textured soils. In general, soil texture as an inherent static property highly conditions crop-climate interactions in changing climates. Furthermore, rainfed wheat production would likely be more sustainable on coarser soil textures under climate changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2016. "Towards modeling soil texture-specific sensitivity of wheat yield and water balance to climatic changes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 248-263.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:177:y:2016:i:c:p:248-263
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2016.07.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377416302797
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2016.07.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eitzinger, J. & Stastna, M. & Zalud, Z. & Dubrovsky, M., 2003. "A simulation study of the effect of soil water balance and water stress on winter wheat production under different climate change scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 195-217, July.
    2. Homaee, M. & Dirksen, C. & Feddes, R. A., 2002. "Simulation of root water uptake: I. Non-uniform transient salinity using different macroscopic reduction functions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 89-109, October.
    3. Mohammad Bannayan & Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, 2014. "Future production of rainfed wheat in Iran (Khorasan province): climate change scenario analysis," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 211-227, February.
    4. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 52-58, January.
    5. Jones, Peter G. & Thornton, Philip K., 2013. "Generating downscaled weather data from a suite of climate models for agricultural modelling applications," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-5.
    6. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Erratum: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 171-171, February.
    7. Saadat, Saeed & Homaee, Mehdi, 2015. "Modeling sorghum response to irrigation water salinity at early growth stage," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 119-124.
    8. J. Lelieveld & P. Hadjinicolaou & E. Kostopoulou & J. Chenoweth & M. Maayar & C. Giannakopoulos & C. Hannides & M. Lange & M. Tanarhte & E. Tyrlis & E. Xoplaki, 2012. "Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 667-687, October.
    9. Jason Evans, 2009. "21st century climate change in the Middle East," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 417-432, February.
    10. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    11. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    12. El Chami, D. & Daccache, A., 2015. "Assessing sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change scenarios in a humid climate — An integrated modelling framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 19-25.
    13. Amos P. K. Tai & Maria Val Martin & Colette L. Heald, 2014. "Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(9), pages 817-821, September.
    14. Tubiello, Francesco N. & Rosenzweig, Cynthia & Volk, Tyler, 1995. "Interactions of CO2, temperature and management practices: Simulations with a modified version of CERES-Wheat," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 135-152.
    15. Jalota, S.K. & Vashisht, B.B. & Kaur, Harsimran & Kaur, Samanpreet & Kaur, Prabhjyot, 2014. "Location specific climate change scenario and its impact on rice and wheat in Central Indian Punjab," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 77-86.
    16. Hung-Wei Tseng & Thian Gan & Pao-Shan Yu, 2015. "Composite Drought Indices of Monotonic Behaviour for Assessing Potential Impact of Climate Change to a Water Resources System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2341-2359, May.
    17. Homaee, M. & Feddes, R. A. & Dirksen, C., 2002. "Simulation of root water uptake: II. Non-uniform transient water stress using different reduction functions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 111-126, October.
    18. Homaee, M. & Feddes, R. A. & Dirksen, C., 2002. "Simulation of root water uptake: III. Non-uniform transient combined salinity and water stress," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 127-144, October.
    19. Keywan Riahi & Shilpa Rao & Volker Krey & Cheolhung Cho & Vadim Chirkov & Guenther Fischer & Georg Kindermann & Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Rafaj, 2011. "RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 33-57, November.
    20. Ludwig, Fulco & Asseng, Senthold, 2006. "Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 159-179, October.
    21. Rockström, Johan & Karlberg, Louise & Wani, Suhas P. & Barron, Jennie & Hatibu, Nuhu & Oweis, Theib & Bruggeman, Adriana & Farahani, Jalali & Qiang, Zhu, 2010. "Managing water in rainfed agriculture--The need for a paradigm shift," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 543-550, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiao, Xuechen & Zang, Hecang & Liu, Yang & Zhang, Zhen & Liu, Ying & Ejaz, Irsa & Du, Chenghang & Wang, Zhimin & Sun, Zhencai & Zhang, Yinghua, 2023. "Promoting winter wheat sustainable intensification by higher nitrogen distribution in top second to fourth leaves under water-restricted condition in North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    2. Rahimi-Moghaddam, Sajjad & Eyni-Nargeseh, Hamed & Ahmadi, Seyed Ahmad Kalantar & Azizi, Khosro, 2021. "Towards withholding irrigation regimes and drought-resistant genotypes as strategies to increase canola production in drought-prone environments: A modeling approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2017. "Towards shifting planting date as an adaptation practice for rainfed wheat response to climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 108-119.
    4. Milad Nouri & Mehdi Homaee & Mohammad Bannayan, 2017. "Quantitative Trend, Sensitivity and Contribution Analyses of Reference Evapotranspiration in some Arid Environments under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(7), pages 2207-2224, May.
    5. Huang, Jingyi & Hartemink, Alfred E. & Kucharik, Christopher J., 2021. "Soil-dependent responses of US crop yields to climate variability and depth to groundwater," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    6. Chen, Shichao & Du, Taisheng & Wang, Sufen & Parsons, David & Wu, Di & Guo, Xiuwei & Li, Donghao, 2021. "Quantifying the effects of spatial-temporal variability of soil properties on crop growth in management zones within an irrigated maize field in Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    7. Jalali, Vahidreza & Asadi Kapourchal, Safoora & Homaee, Mehdi, 2017. "Evaluating performance of macroscopic water uptake models at productive growth stages of durum wheat under saline conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 180(PA), pages 13-21.
    8. A. Koocheki & M. Nassiri Mahallati & M. Bannayan & F. Yaghoubi, 2022. "Simulating resilience of rainfed wheat–based cropping systems of Iran under future climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1-30, April.
    9. Dorijan Radočaj & Mladen Jurišić & Irena Rapčan & Fran Domazetović & Rina Milošević & Ivan Plaščak, 2023. "An Independent Validation of SoilGrids Accuracy for Soil Texture Components in Croatia," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, May.
    10. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi, 2022. "Reference crop evapotranspiration for data-sparse regions using reanalysis products," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2017. "Towards shifting planting date as an adaptation practice for rainfed wheat response to climate change," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 108-119.
    2. A. Koocheki & M. Nassiri Mahallati & M. Bannayan & F. Yaghoubi, 2022. "Simulating resilience of rainfed wheat–based cropping systems of Iran under future climate change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1-30, April.
    3. Jalali, Vahidreza & Asadi Kapourchal, Safoora & Homaee, Mehdi, 2017. "Evaluating performance of macroscopic water uptake models at productive growth stages of durum wheat under saline conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 180(PA), pages 13-21.
    4. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    5. Liu, Lining & Wang, Tianshu & Wang, Lichun & Wu, Xun & Zuo, Qiang & Shi, Jianchu & Sheng, Jiandong & Jiang, Pingan & Chen, Quanjia & Ben-Gal, Alon, 2022. "Plant water deficit index-based irrigation under conditions of salinity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    6. Wu, Xun & Zhang, Wenjing & Liu, Wen & Zuo, Qiang & Shi, Jianchu & Yan, Xudong & Zhang, Hongfei & Xue, Xuzhang & Wang, Lichun & Zhang, Mo & Ben-Gal, Alon, 2017. "Root-weighted soil water status for plant water deficit index based irrigation scheduling," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 137-147.
    7. Parisa Paymard & Mohammad Bannayan & Reza Sadrabadi Haghighi, 2018. "Analysis of the climate change effect on wheat production systems and investigate the potential of management strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(3), pages 1237-1255, April.
    8. Saadat, Saeed & Homaee, Mehdi, 2015. "Modeling sorghum response to irrigation water salinity at early growth stage," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 119-124.
    9. Ritzema, H.P., 2016. "Drain for Gain: Managing salinity in irrigated lands—A review," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 18-28.
    10. Wang, Lichun & Ning, Songrui & Chen, Xiaoli & Li, Youli & Guo, Wenzhong & Ben-Gal, Alon, 2021. "Modeling tomato root water uptake influenced by soil salinity under drip irrigation with an inverse method," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    11. Nayebloie, Fatemeh & Kouchakzadeh, Mahdi & Ebrahimi, Kumars & Homaee, Mahdi & Abbasi, Fariborz, 2022. "Improving fertigation efficiency by numerical modelling in a lettuce subsurface drip irrigation farm," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    12. Rashki, Paria & piri, halimeh & Khamari, Eisa, 2022. "Determining the production function and optimal irrigation depth of Roselle in deficit irrigation conditions and using potassium fertilizer," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    13. Barnard, J.H. & Bennie, A.T.P. & van Rensburg, L.D. & Preez, C.C. du, 2015. "SWAMP: A soil layer water supply model for simulating macroscopic crop water uptake under osmotic stress," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 150-163.
    14. Avela Pamla & Gladman Thondhlana & Sheunesu Ruwanza, 2021. "Persistent Droughts and Water Scarcity: Households’ Perceptions and Practices in Makhanda, South Africa," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-13, June.
    15. Skaggs, Todd H. & van Genuchten, Martinus Th. & Shouse, Peter J. & Poss, James A., 2006. "Macroscopic approaches to root water uptake as a function of water and salinity stress," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 86(1-2), pages 140-149, November.
    16. Yao, Yao & Li, Guang & Lu, Yanhua & Liu, Shuainan, 2023. "Modelling the impact of climate change and tillage practices on soil CO2 emissions from dry farmland in the Loess Plateau of China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).
    17. Jale Amanuel Dufera & Tewodros Addisu Yate & Tadesse Tujuba Kenea, 2023. "Spatiotemporal analysis of drought in Oromia regional state of Ethiopia over the period 1989 to 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1569-1609, June.
    18. Jinhua Wen & Yian Hua & Chenkai Cai & Shiwu Wang & Helong Wang & Xinyan Zhou & Jian Huang & Jianqun Wang, 2023. "Probabilistic Forecast and Risk Assessment of Flash Droughts Based on Numeric Weather Forecast: A Case Study in Zhejiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    19. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    20. Anna Jędrejek & Rafał Pudełko, 2023. "Exploring the Potential Use of Sentinel-1 and 2 Satellite Imagery for Monitoring Winter Wheat Growth under Agricultural Drought Conditions in North-Western Poland," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:177:y:2016:i:c:p:248-263. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.