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Quantitative Trend, Sensitivity and Contribution Analyses of Reference Evapotranspiration in some Arid Environments under Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Milad Nouri

    (Tarbiat Modares University)

  • Mehdi Homaee

    (Tarbiat Modares University)

  • Mohammad Bannayan

    (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad)

Abstract

The temporal trend of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) and contribution of associated meteorological factors to the ET0 trend were assessed for 17 arid areas. Sensitivity of ET0 to changes in key meteorological variables was also analyzed. To study temporal trend of ET0, Mann-Kendall trend test was employed. Quantitative contribution and sensitivity analyses were carried out, respectively, using a dimensionless relative sensitivity coefficient and detrending method. Results indicated that ET0 has an increasing trend in 70.6, 64.7, 70.6, 76.5 and 70.0%, of sites respectively, in winter, spring, summer, autumn and entire year. This positive trend was significant (p ≤ 0.05) in 47.0, 35.3, 35.3, 29.4 and 35.3% of sites, respectively, for the same seasons. There was a significant change-point in winter, spring, summer, autumn and annual ET0 series at 64.7, 52.9, 64.7, 64.7 and 82.3% of stations, respectively. In 35.3 and 35.3% of sites, solar radiation and wind speed were the most sensitive climatic factors on ET0, respectively. ET0 exhibited the highest sensitivity to the relative humidity changes in coastal sites. Changes of wind speed contributed much more than other factors to the annual ET0 trend in 58.8% of investigated sites. The negative trend in wind speed nearly nullified the positive effects of increased air temperature on ET0 over 1966–2012 in 23.5% of stations. Changes in ET0 were attributed to wind speed changes in most locations. Given the upward trend of ET0 in the majority of locations, proper water management is required to avoid negative impacts of climate change in arid regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Milad Nouri & Mehdi Homaee & Mohammad Bannayan, 2017. "Quantitative Trend, Sensitivity and Contribution Analyses of Reference Evapotranspiration in some Arid Environments under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(7), pages 2207-2224, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:7:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1638-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1638-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2016. "Towards modeling soil texture-specific sensitivity of wheat yield and water balance to climatic changes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 248-263.
    2. Homaee, M. & Dirksen, C. & Feddes, R. A., 2002. "Simulation of root water uptake: I. Non-uniform transient salinity using different macroscopic reduction functions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 89-109, October.
    3. Alireza Sharifi & Yagob Dinpashoh, 2014. "Sensitivity Analysis of the Penman-Monteith reference Crop Evapotranspiration to Climatic Variables in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5465-5476, December.
    4. Homaee, M. & Feddes, R. A. & Dirksen, C., 2002. "Simulation of root water uptake: II. Non-uniform transient water stress using different reduction functions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 111-126, October.
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