IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v29y2015i7p2341-2359.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Composite Drought Indices of Monotonic Behaviour for Assessing Potential Impact of Climate Change to a Water Resources System

Author

Listed:
  • Hung-Wei Tseng
  • Thian Gan
  • Pao-Shan Yu

Abstract

In this study, innovative drought indices are developed to accurately quantify the characteristics of drought events and their possible impacts to the water resources system of the Tsengwen Reservoir of Taiwan. We applied a monotonic test to three fundamental single drought indices, namely reliability, vulnerability and resilience, to demonstrate that indices showing non-monotonic behaviour can potentially give misleading information regarding the effects of drought to water resources systems. We further tested two newly proposed single drought indices, Vul system and Res weighted , to the study site, of which Vul system showed monotonic behaviour but Res weighted still behaved non-monotonically, even though in a suppressed manner. Next, we proposed and tested three composite drought indices, sustainability index (SI), drought risk index (DRI) and the water shortage index (WSI), of which only the WSI behaved monotonically. As a result, WSI was applied to investigate the potential impact of climate change to the future drought risk of the study site. On the basis of WSI values derived from runoffs simulated by the modified HBV and a reservoir operation (water balance) model driven with 18 sets of climate changes scenarios of IPCC ( 2007 ) statistically downscaled using the MarkSim GCM model, it seems that there is a 20 % chance that climate change impact could lead to more severe droughts in the study site. However, under the combined impact of climate change and the effect of sedimentation to the Tsengwen Reservoir, which could decrease its storage capacity by about 12 % (i.e., s = 0.88), it seems more severe drought impacts will increase to 2/3 of the 18 test cases. Lastly, a direct relationship was developed between WSI and the multifractal strength, which implies that runoff data with a stronger multifractal strength could lead to more severe droughts and vice versa. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Hung-Wei Tseng & Thian Gan & Pao-Shan Yu, 2015. "Composite Drought Indices of Monotonic Behaviour for Assessing Potential Impact of Climate Change to a Water Resources System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2341-2359, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:7:p:2341-2359
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-0945-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-015-0945-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-015-0945-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    2. Xu Zongxue & K. Jinno & A. Kawamura & S. Takesaki & K. Ito, 1998. "Performance Risk Analysis for Fukuoka Water Supply System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 12(1), pages 13-30, February.
    3. Yongsheng Xu & Zong-Liang Yang, 2012. "A method to study the impact of climate change on variability of river flow: an example from the Guadalupe River in Texas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 965-979, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rong-Song Chen & Chan-Ming Tsai, 2017. "Development of an Evaluation System for Sustaining Reservoir Functions—A Case Study of Shiwen Reservoir in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-18, August.
    2. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2016. "Towards modeling soil texture-specific sensitivity of wheat yield and water balance to climatic changes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 248-263.
    3. João Vieira & Maria Conceição Cunha & Ricardo Luís, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Water Reservoir Systems Performance with the Implementation of Ecological Flows under Varying Climatic Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 5183-5205, December.
    4. João Vieira & Maria Conceição Cunha, 2017. "Nested Optimization Approach for the Capacity Expansion of Multiquality Water Supply Systems under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1381-1395, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. İşcanoğlu-Çekiç, Ayşegül & Gülteki̇n, Havva, 2019. "Are cross-correlations between Turkish Stock Exchange and three major country indices multifractal or monofractal?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 978-990.
    2. Lavička, Hynek & Kracík, Jiří, 2020. "Fluctuation analysis of electric power loads in Europe: Correlation multifractality vs. Distribution function multifractality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    3. L. Telesca & T. Matcharashvili & T. Chelidze & N. Zhukova & Z. Javakhishvili, 2015. "Investigating the dynamical features of the time distribution of the reservoir-induced seismicity in Enguri area (Georgia)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 117-125, May.
    4. Kakinaka, Shinji & Umeno, Ken, 2021. "Exploring asymmetric multifractal cross-correlations of price–volatility and asymmetric volatility dynamics in cryptocurrency markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    5. Longfeng Zhao & Wei Li & Andrea Fenu & Boris Podobnik & Yougui Wang & H. Eugene Stanley, 2017. "The q-dependent detrended cross-correlation analysis of stock market," Papers 1705.01406, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    6. Vitanov, Nikolay K. & Sakai, Kenshi & Dimitrova, Zlatinka I., 2008. "SSA, PCA, TDPSC, ACFA: Useful combination of methods for analysis of short and nonstationary time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 187-202.
    7. Ruan, Qingsong & Bao, Junjie & Zhang, Manqian & Fan, Limin, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate regime reform on RMB markets: A new perspective based on MF-DCCA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 522(C), pages 122-134.
    8. Murguía, J.S. & Rosu, H.C. & Jimenez, A. & Gutiérrez-Medina, B. & García-Meza, J.V., 2015. "The Hurst exponents of Nitzschia sp. diatom trajectories observed by light microscopy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 176-184.
    9. Wang, Dong-Hua & Yu, Xiao-Wen & Suo, Yuan-Yuan, 2012. "Statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(12), pages 3503-3512.
    10. Wu, Yue & Shang, Pengjian & Chen, Shijian, 2019. "Modified multifractal large deviation spectrum based on CID for financial market system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1331-1342.
    11. Zhuang, Xiaoyang & Wei, Yu & Ma, Feng, 2015. "Multifractality, efficiency analysis of Chinese stock market and its cross-correlation with WTI crude oil price," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 101-113.
    12. Xiao, Di & Wang, Jun, 2021. "Attitude interaction for financial price behaviours by contact system with small-world network topology," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 572(C).
    13. Jovanovic, Tijana & Mejía, Alfonso & Gall, Heather & Gironás, Jorge, 2016. "Effect of urbanization on the long-term persistence of streamflow records," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 208-221.
    14. Manimaran, P. & Narayana, A.C., 2018. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis on air pollutants of University of Hyderabad Campus, India," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 502(C), pages 228-235.
    15. El Alaoui, Marwane & Benbachir, Saâd, 2013. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis in the MENA area," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(23), pages 5985-5993.
    16. Ladislav KRISTOUFEK & Petra LUNACKOVA, 2013. "Long-term Memory in Electricity Prices: Czech Market Evidence," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 407-424, November.
    17. Linan Sun & Antao Wang & Jiayao Wang, 2022. "Spatial Characteristics Analysis for Coupling Strength among Air Pollutants during a Severe Haze Period in Zhengzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-19, July.
    18. Sandoval, Leonidas, 2014. "To lag or not to lag? How to compare indices of stock markets that operate on different times," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 227-243.
    19. Méndez-Gordillo, Alma Rosa & Cadenas, Erasmo, 2021. "Wind speed forecasting by the extraction of the multifractal patterns of time series through the multiplicative cascade technique," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    20. Saâdaoui, Foued, 2024. "Segmented multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis for assessing inefficiency in North African stock markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:7:p:2341-2359. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.