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Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments

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  • Blanco, María
  • Ramos, Fabien
  • Van Doorslaer, Benjamin
  • Martínez, Pilar
  • Fumagalli, Davide
  • Ceglar, Andrej
  • Fernández, Francisco J.

Abstract

The biophysical and economic consequences of climate change for agriculture are surrounded by uncertainties. The evaluation of climate change impacts on global and regional agriculture has been studied at length. In most cases, however, global and regional impacts are examined separately. Here we present a regionalized assessment – for the 2030 time horizon – covering the whole European Union while accounting for market feedback through international markets. To account for uncertainty on climate effects, we defined several simulation scenarios that differ as to climate projections and assumptions on the degree of carbon fertilization. Biophysical simulations show that crop productivity effects are largely determined by the degree of carbon fertilization, leading to decreased productivity in the absence of carbon fertilization and increased productivity otherwise. The magnitude of those effects differs across regions and crops, with maize being one of the most negatively affected in the EU. Economic simulations show that, while, on the whole, crop price effects attenuate the global impacts of climate change, aggregate results conceal significant regional disparities and their related trade adjustment. These results suggest that a multi-scale perspective is helpful for assessing climate change impacts on agriculture, as it will improve understanding of how regional and global agrifood markets respond to climate change and how these responses interact with each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanco, María & Ramos, Fabien & Van Doorslaer, Benjamin & Martínez, Pilar & Fumagalli, Davide & Ceglar, Andrej & Fernández, Francisco J., 2017. "Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 52-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:156:y:2017:i:c:p:52-66
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.013
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    5. Sandra Ricart & Jorge Olcina & Antonio M. Rico, 2018. "Evaluating Public Attitudes and Farmers’ Beliefs towards Climate Change Adaptation: Awareness, Perception, and Populism at European Level," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
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    8. Neal Hughes & Michael Lu & Wei Ying Soh & Kenton Lawson, 2022. "Modelling the effects of climate change on the profitability of Australian farms," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-22, May.
    9. Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Thomas Fellmann, 2018. "PESETA III: Agro-economic analysis of climate change impacts in Europe," JRC Research Reports JRC113743, Joint Research Centre.
    10. Purola, Tuomo & Lehtonen, Heikki & Liu, Xing & Tao, Fulu & Palosuo, Taru, 2018. "Production of cereals in northern marginal areas: An integrated assessment of climate change impacts at the farm level," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 191-204.
    11. Sietz, Diana & Conradt, Tobias & Krysanova, Valentina & Hattermann, Fred F. & Wechsung, Frank, 2021. "The Crop Generator: Implementing crop rotations to effectively advance eco-hydrological modelling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    12. Muhammad Ramzan, 2023. "What hurt the most? Assessing the influence of pollution and climate change on agricultural sustainability in Asia," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 2598-2619, August.
    13. Ru Guo & Xiaodong Qiu & Yiyi He, 2021. "Research on Agricultural Cooperation Potential between China and CEE Countries Based on Resource Complementarity," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-23, March.
    14. Ceglar, A. & van der Wijngaart, R. & de Wit, A. & Lecerf, R. & Boogaard, H. & Seguini, L. & van den Berg, M. & Toreti, A. & Zampieri, M. & Fumagalli, D. & Baruth, B., 2019. "Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe: Evaluation and effects on yield," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 168-180.

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