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PESETA III: Agro-economic analysis of climate change impacts in Europe

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This report presents the agro-economic analysis within the PESETA III project, focusing on the effects of climate change on crop yields and related impacts on EU agricultural production, trade, prices, consumption, income, and welfare. For this purpose the CAPRI modelling system was employed, using a combination of a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). For the climate change related EU-wide biophysical yield shocks, input of the agricultural biophysical modelling of the PESETA III project was used, which provided crop yield changes under water-limited conditions based on high-resolution bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX regional climate models, taking also gridded soil data into account. As agricultural markets are globally connected via world commodity trade, it is important for the agro-economic analysis to also consider climate change related yield effects outside the EU. The analysis, therefore, was complemented with biophysical yield shocks in non-EU countries as provided by the AgCLIM50 project. To simulate and assess the response of key economic variables to the changes in EU and non-EU biophysical crop yields, one reference scenario (without yield shocks) and two specific climate change scenarios were constructed, one scenario with yield shocks but without enhanced CO2 fertilization and another scenario with yield shocks under the assumption of enhanced CO2 fertilization. The projection horizon for the scenarios is 2050.

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  • Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Thomas Fellmann, 2018. "PESETA III: Agro-economic analysis of climate change impacts in Europe," JRC Research Reports JRC113743, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc113743
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    1. Jordan Hristov & Andrea Toreti & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Dentener Frank & Thomas Fellmann & Christian Elleby & Andrej Ceglar & Davide Fumagalli & Stefan Niemeyer & Iacopo Cerrani & Lorenzo Panarello, 2020. "Analysis of climate change impacts on EU agriculture by 2050: JRC PESETA IV project – Task 3," JRC Research Reports JRC119632, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Enrico Bernardini & Ivan Faiella & Luciano Lavecchia & Alessandro Mistretta & Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Central banks, climate risks and sustainable finance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 608, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Thomas Fellmann & Peter Witzke & Franz Weiss & Jordan Hristov & Mihaly Himics & Jesus Barreiro-Hurle & Manuel Gomez Barbero & Adrian Leip, 2020. "Economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture: A closer look at mitigation options and regional mitigation costs (EcAMPA 3)," JRC Research Reports JRC120355, Joint Research Centre.

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