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Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect

Author

Listed:
  • Sam Hyun Yoo

    (Hanyang University)

  • Tomáš Sobotka

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

Abstract

Background: The total fertility rate (TFR) in South Korea has fallen below 1.3 since 2001. The role of the rapid shift toward a late-childbearing pattern in driving Korean fertility decline to this ultra-low level has been little explored until now. Objective: We provide an in-depth analysis of period fertility trends by birth order in South Korea from 1981 to 2015, when the period TFR fell from 2.57 to extremely low levels. Methods: We combine census and birth registration data to estimate period and cohort fertility indicators by birth order. We compare changes in conventional TFR with tempo- and parity-adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*) and their birth-order-specific components. Results: The tempo effect linked to the shift toward delayed childbearing has had a strong and persistent negative influence on period TFRs in South Korea since the early 1980s. Without the shift to later childbearing, period fertility rates in South Korea would consistently stay higher and decline more gradually, reaching a threshold of very low fertility, 1.5, only in 2014. The postponement of childbearing and the resulting tempo effect were strongest in the early 2000s, when Korean TFR reached the lowest levels. More recently, Korean fertility has been characterized by a diminishing tempo effect and falling first and second birth rates. This trend marks a break with the previous pattern of almost universal fertility and a strong two-child family model. Contribution: Our study demonstrates the importance of the tempo effect in explaining the shift to ultra-low fertility in South Korea and in East Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Sam Hyun Yoo & Tomáš Sobotka, 2018. "Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(22), pages 549-576.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:38:y:2018:i:22
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2020. "Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 18(1), pages 83-120.
    2. Jolene Tan & Shao-Tzu Yu, 2024. "A life course perspective: women’s childhood background and family formation trajectories in low-fertility South Korea," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 1-16, June.
    3. Yoonyoung Choi, 2022. "A decomposition of declining crude birth rate in South Korea, 1990–2015," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 373-389, September.
    4. Fleckenstein, Timo & Lee, Soohyun Christine & Mohun Himmelweit, Sam, 2023. "Labour market dualization, permanent insecurity and fertility: the case of ultra-low fertility in South Korea," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117935, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Jingyi Dan & Nong Zhu & Li Mei, 2022. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Women First Marriages in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-10, October.
    6. Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana, 2023. "Probabilistic population forecasting: Short to very long-term," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 73-97.
    7. James M. Raymo & Hyunjoon Park, 2020. "Marriage Decline in Korea: Changing Composition of the Domestic Marriage Market and Growth in International Marriage," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 171-194, February.
    8. Ji-Hye Kim & Sarah Soyeon Oh & Suk Won Bae & Eun-Cheol Park & Sung-In Jang, 2019. "Gender Discrimination in the Workplace: Effects on Pregnancy Planning and Childbirth among South Korean Women," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-12, July.
    9. Sam Hyun Yoo & Victor Agadjanian, 2021. "The paradox of change: Religion and fertility decline in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(23), pages 537-562.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Korea; South Korea; tempo effects; first birth; parity; Asia; ultra-low fertility; postponement; decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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