IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v15y2006i6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

First birth trends in developed countries

Author

Listed:
  • Tomas Frejka

    (Independent researcher)

  • Jean-Paul Sardon

    (Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED))

Abstract

Levels and trends of various facets concerning first births are continuously changing. The evidence confirms that the postponement of first births is an ongoing and persisting process which started in western countries among cohorts of the 1940s, but only in the 1960s cohorts in Central and Eastern Europe. The mean age of women having first births is universally rising. Fertility of older women was increasing. The decline in childbearing of young women is robust among the cohorts of the late 1960s and the 1970s; in Southern Europe as well as in central and Eastern Europe the rates of decline have accelerated. Childbearing behavior in the formerly socialist countries is in transition to a different regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon, 2006. "First birth trends in developed countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(6), pages 147-180.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:15:y:2006:i:6
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol15/6/15-6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2006.15.6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Young J. Kim & Robert Schoen, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Limits to the Bongaarts‐Feeney Adjustment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 554-559, September.
    2. Dimiter Philipov & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2001. "Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 37-60, March.
    3. Robert Schoen, 2004. "Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(4), pages 801-819, November.
    4. Hans-Peter Kohler & Dimiter Philipov, 2001. "Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, February.
    5. Tomas Frejka & Gérard Calot, 2001. "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low‐Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 103-132, March.
    6. Kenneth Land, 2001. "A sensitivity analysis of the bongaarts-feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 17-28, February.
    7. Evert van Imhoff & Nico Keilman, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Comment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 549-553, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon, 2006. "First birth trends in developed countries: a cohort analysis," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011. "Tempo and the TFR," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 841-861, August.
    3. Tomas Sobotka & Maria Winkler-Dworak & Maria Rita Testa & Wolfgang Lutz & Dimiter Philipov & Henriette Engelhardt & Richard Gisser, 2005. "Monthly Estimates of the Quantum of Fertility: Towards a Fertility Monitoring System in Austria," VID Working Papers 0501, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    4. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Sam Hyun Yoo & Tomáš Sobotka, 2018. "Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(22), pages 549-576.
    6. Marc Luy, 2006. "Mortality tempo-adjustment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(21), pages 561-590.
    7. Joshua Goldstein & Thomas Cassidy, 2014. "A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1797-1819, October.
    8. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144.
    9. Hisashi Inaba, 2007. "Effects of Age Shift on the Tempo and Quantum of Non-Repeatable Events," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 131-168.
    10. Robert Schoen & Stefan H. Jonsson, 2003. "A diminishing population whose every cohort more than replaces itself," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 9(6), pages 111-118.
    11. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    12. Yi Zeng & Eric Stallard & Zhenglian Wang, 2004. "Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(10), pages 263-304.
    13. Carl Schmertmann & Emilio Zagheni & Joshua R. Goldstein & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(506), pages 500-513, June.
    14. Griffith Feeney & John Bongaarts, 2006. "The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 115-151.
    15. Tomáš Sobotka, 2003. "Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 8(6), pages 151-214.
    16. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2004. "Old Insights and New Approaches: Fertility Analysis and Tempo Adjustment in the Age-Parity Model," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 57-90.
    17. Yi Zeng & Eric Stallard & Zhenglian Wang, 2003. "Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Tomáš Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220, June.
    19. Marc Luy, 2005. "The importance of mortality tempo-adjustment: theoretical and empirical considerations," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    20. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Henriette Engelhardt, 2004. "On the tempo and quantum of first marriages in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 10(9), pages 231-264.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cohort analysis; developed countries; first birth; postponement; childlessness; changing age patterns; transition to different age patterns in Central and Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:15:y:2006:i:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.