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Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • José Antonio Ortega

    (Universidad de Salamanca)

Abstract

In this paper we apply tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios (Kohler and Ortega 2002) to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain. These countries represent three distinct demographic patterns in contemporary Europe and are of particular interest for demographers. The goal of our analyses is to (a) describe past fertility trends in these countries in terms of synthetic cohorts and (b) project the level and distribution of completed fertility in cohorts who have not finished childbearing. Our analyses suggest that the most recent period fertility patterns in these countries do not imply substantial increases in childlessness even in younger cohorts. Moreover, if these patterns prevail in the future, young cohorts would reach completed fertility levels between 1.5-1.75.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:7
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Hans-Peter Kohler & Axel Skytthe & Kaare Christensen, 2001. "The age at first birth and completed fertility reconsidered: findings from a sample of identical twins," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Young J. Kim & Robert Schoen, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Limits to the Bongaarts‐Feeney Adjustment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 554-559, September.
    4. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144.
    5. Hans-Peter Kohler & Dimiter Philipov, 2001. "Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2000. "The impact of union formation dynamics on first births in West Germany and Italy: are there signs of convergence?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2000-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Francesco C. Billari & Chris Wilson, 2001. "Convergence towards diversity? Cohort dynamics in the transition to adulthood in contemporary Western Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-039, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; Netherlands; Sweden; cohort fertility; low fertility; tempo adjustment; parity progression measures; fertility postponement; fertility projection; Spain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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