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What can fertility indicators tell us about pronatalist policy options?

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  • John Bongaarts

Abstract

The identification and implementation of ways to avert the adverse future consequences of rapid population ageing represent urgent new public policy challenges. This paper synthesises the available knowledge on pronatalist policy options and assesses their potential impact by examining three fertility indicators: the total fertility rate, the tempo-adjusted total fertility rate and the personal ideal family size. Using recent data from thirteen European countries, the TFR is found to be lower than the ideal family size in each population. The two main reasons for this gap are tempo effects and economic, social and biological obstacles to the implementation of reproductive preferences. These factors together are estimated to average approximately 0.8 to 0.9 births per woman. Policy options to raise fertility without interfering with existing reproductive preferences are proposed. The concluding section briefly examines the impact of an increase in fertility on future trends in the old-age dependency ratio.

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  • John Bongaarts, 2008. "What can fertility indicators tell us about pronatalist policy options?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 6(1), pages 39-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:6:y:2008:i:1:p:39-55
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    2. Eva Beaujouan & Caroline Berghammer, 2019. "The Gap Between Lifetime Fertility Intentions and Completed Fertility in Europe and the United States: A Cohort Approach," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(4), pages 507-535, August.
    3. Kristen Harknett & Francesco Billari & Carla Medalia, 2014. "Do Family Support Environments Influence Fertility? Evidence from 20 European Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 1-33, February.
    4. Svetlana Biryukova & Oxana Sinyavskaya & Irina Nurimanova, 2016. "Estimating effects of 2007 family policy changes on probability of second and subsequent births in Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 68/SOC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Nicholas Campisi & Hill Kulu & Júlia Mikolai & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "A spatial perspective on the Nordic fertility decline: the role of economic and social uncertainty in fertility trends," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2020-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. S. Philip Morgan & Guo Zhigang & Sarah R. Hayford, 2009. "China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 605-629, September.
    7. William P. Butz, 2008. "First, do no harm," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 6(1), pages 35-38.
    8. Diana Sabotinova, 2009. "Economic Aspects of Public Fertility Policies," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 85-102.
    9. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011. "Tempo and the TFR," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 841-861, August.
    10. Sinclair, Sarah & Boymal, Jonathan & de Silva, Ashton J, 2012. "Is the fertility response to the Australian baby bonus heterogeneous across maternal age? Evidence from Victoria," MPRA Paper 42725, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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