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A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement

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  • Joshua Goldstein
  • Thomas Cassidy

Abstract

We introduce a new formal model in which demographic behavior such as fertility is postponed by differing amounts depending only on cohort membership. The cohort-based model shows the effects of cohort shifts on period fertility measures and provides an accompanying tempo adjustment to determine the period fertility that would have occurred without postponement. Cohort-based postponement spans multiple periods and produces “fertility momentum,” with implications for future fertility rates. We illustrate several methods for model estimation and apply the model to fertility in several countries. We also compare the fit of period-based and cohort-based shift models to the recent Dutch fertility surface, showing how cohort- and period-based postponement can occur simultaneously. Copyright Population Association of America 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Goldstein & Thomas Cassidy, 2014. "A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1797-1819, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:51:y:2014:i:5:p:1797-1819
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-014-0332-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Germán Rodriguez, 2006. "Demographic translation and tempo effects," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(6), pages 85-110.
    2. Robert Schoen, 2004. "Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(4), pages 801-819, November.
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    4. Griffith Feeney & John Bongaarts, 2006. "The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 115-151.
    5. John Bongaarts & Tomáš Sobotka, 2012. "A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38(1), pages 83-120, March.
    6. Hans-Peter Kohler & Dimiter Philipov, 2001. "Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, February.
    7. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
    8. Young J. Kim & Robert Schoen, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Limits to the Bongaarts‐Feeney Adjustment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 554-559, September.
    9. Kenneth Land, 2001. "A sensitivity analysis of the bongaarts-feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 17-28, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Insu Chang & Heeran Park & Hosung Sohn, 2021. "Causal Impact of School Starting Age on the Tempo of Childbirths: Evidence from Working Mothers and School Entry Cutoff Using Exact Date of Birth," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 997-1022, November.
    2. Cavallini, Flavia, 2024. "Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Namkee Ahn & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2020. "Analysis of fertility using cohort-specific socio-economic data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 711-733, September.

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