IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/demogr/v51y2014i5p1797-1819.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Goldstein
  • Thomas Cassidy

Abstract

We introduce a new formal model in which demographic behavior such as fertility is postponed by differing amounts depending only on cohort membership. The cohort-based model shows the effects of cohort shifts on period fertility measures and provides an accompanying tempo adjustment to determine the period fertility that would have occurred without postponement. Cohort-based postponement spans multiple periods and produces “fertility momentum,” with implications for future fertility rates. We illustrate several methods for model estimation and apply the model to fertility in several countries. We also compare the fit of period-based and cohort-based shift models to the recent Dutch fertility surface, showing how cohort- and period-based postponement can occur simultaneously. Copyright Population Association of America 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Goldstein & Thomas Cassidy, 2014. "A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1797-1819, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:51:y:2014:i:5:p:1797-1819
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-014-0332-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s13524-014-0332-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13524-014-0332-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Germán Rodriguez, 2006. "Demographic translation and tempo effects," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(6), pages 85-110.
    2. Robert Schoen, 2004. "Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(4), pages 801-819, November.
    3. John Bongaarts & Tomáš Sobotka, 2012. "A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 38(1), pages 83-120, March.
    4. Ron Lesthaeghe & Paul Willems, 1999. "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 211-228, June.
    5. Hans-Peter Kohler & Dimiter Philipov, 2001. "Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, February.
    6. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
    7. Young J. Kim & Robert Schoen, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Limits to the Bongaarts‐Feeney Adjustment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 554-559, September.
    8. Griffith Feeney & John Bongaarts, 2006. "The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 115-151.
    9. Kenneth Land, 2001. "A sensitivity analysis of the bongaarts-feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 17-28, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Insu Chang & Heeran Park & Hosung Sohn, 2021. "Causal Impact of School Starting Age on the Tempo of Childbirths: Evidence from Working Mothers and School Entry Cutoff Using Exact Date of Birth," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 997-1022, November.
    2. Cavallini, Flavia, 2024. "Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Namkee Ahn & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2020. "Analysis of fertility using cohort-specific socio-economic data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 711-733, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011. "Tempo and the TFR," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 841-861, August.
    2. Marc Luy, 2006. "Mortality tempo-adjustment," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(21), pages 561-590.
    3. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Tomas Sobotka & Maria Winkler-Dworak & Maria Rita Testa & Wolfgang Lutz & Dimiter Philipov & Henriette Engelhardt & Richard Gisser, 2005. "Monthly Estimates of the Quantum of Fertility: Towards a Fertility Monitoring System in Austria," VID Working Papers 0501, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    5. Sam Hyun Yoo & Tomáš Sobotka, 2018. "Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(22), pages 549-576.
    6. Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon, 2006. "First birth trends in developed countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 15(6), pages 147-180.
    7. Germán Rodriguez, 2006. "Demographic translation and tempo effects," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(6), pages 85-110.
    8. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Tomas Frejka & Jean-Paul Sardon, 2006. "First birth trends in developed countries: a cohort analysis," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144.
    11. Hisashi Inaba, 2007. "Effects of Age Shift on the Tempo and Quantum of Non-Repeatable Events," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 131-168.
    12. Robert Schoen & Stefan H. Jonsson, 2003. "A diminishing population whose every cohort more than replaces itself," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 9(6), pages 111-118.
    13. Evert van Imhoff, 2001. "On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(2), pages 23-64.
    14. Yi Zeng & Eric Stallard & Zhenglian Wang, 2004. "Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(10), pages 263-304.
    15. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190.
    16. Griffith Feeney & John Bongaarts, 2006. "The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 115-151.
    17. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2004. "Old Insights and New Approaches: Fertility Analysis and Tempo Adjustment in the Age-Parity Model," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 57-90.
    18. Yi Zeng & Eric Stallard & Zhenglian Wang, 2003. "Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    19. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The End of “Lowest‐Low” Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(4), pages 663-699, December.
    20. Marc Luy, 2005. "The importance of mortality tempo-adjustment: theoretical and empirical considerations," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:51:y:2014:i:5:p:1797-1819. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.