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Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Dimiter Philipov

    (Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

Abstract

A recent formula due to Bongaarts and Feeney allows us todisentangle tempo and quantum effects in changes of the totalfertility rate. This article applies the TFR adjustment toBulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia.Substantial differences between the adjusted and the observed TFRindicate important tempo effects in the recent decline offertility. Moreover, these five countries differ in the relativeimportance of tempo versus quantum effects, and in the periodwhen tempo effects are most relevant. We discuss the validity ofthe assumptions that underlie the usage of the formula and wetest whether age-period interactions may invalidate theseassumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimiter Philipov & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2001. "Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 37-60, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:17:y:2001:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1010740213453
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1010740213453
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Courgeau, Daniel & Lelievre, Eva, 1993. "Event History Analysis in Demography," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287384.
    2. Hans-Peter Kohler & Dimiter Philipov, 2001. "Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, February.
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