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Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Henrik-Alexander Schubert

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Christian Dudel

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Marina Kolobova

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Economic and social development are closely linked with fertility. Several studies have shown that the relationship follows an inverse J-shape: at low and intermediate levels of development, the association is negative; and at high levels of development the association is reversed and becomes positive. However, more recent research building on subnational and U.S. data found only mixed evidence for the inverse J-shape. In this paper, we draw on subnational data on development and fertility in the U.S. states between 1969 and 2018 to examine the relationship between development and fertility. Using a longitudinal approach and addressing several criticisms of the fertility reversal hypothesis, our results support the inverse J-shaped pattern, reconciling trends observed in the U.S. with those in other high-income countries. We also discuss potential explanations for why studies might not detect the inverse J-shape. Moreover, our findings provide insights into the mechanisms that link development and fertility, showing that gender equality and economic uncertainty mediate the relationship between development and fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Christian Dudel & Marina Kolobova & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-022
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-022
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    USA; economic and social development; fertility; fertility determinants;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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