IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joprea/v39y2022i3d10.1007_s12546-022-09287-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A decomposition of declining crude birth rate in South Korea, 1990–2015

Author

Listed:
  • Yoonyoung Choi

    (The Ohio State University)

Abstract

While other countries have experienced a gradual decline in CBR since the 1990s, South Korea has shown a rapid decline and now has one of the lowest rates in the world. To identify what drives the decline of CBR, we apply a decomposition developed by Das Gupta (1993) to Korean registry data (KOSIS) and decompose CBR from 1990 to 2015 into four demographic factors: (1) the proportion of women of reproductive age, (2) the age structure of women of reproductive age, (3) the proportion married among women at each age group, and (4) the marital birth rate at each age group. The results show that the proportion of married among women is the main contributor to the decrease in CBR; a decline in the marriage rate is largely responsible for the low birth rate. The proportion of women of reproductive age and age structure of women of reproductive age are other factors lowering the CBR. Meanwhile, the marital birth rate contributes to an increase in CBR. Although some of the increases produced by marital birth rates could be an artifact of timing changes, the impact reflects the patterns of postponing marriage, which leads to more rapid births after marriage. This study uncovers important demographic factors like decreasing proportion married, the shrinking population in reproductive ages, and ageing among Korean women that drive the decline of CBR.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoonyoung Choi, 2022. "A decomposition of declining crude birth rate in South Korea, 1990–2015," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 373-389, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:39:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s12546-022-09287-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-022-09287-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12546-022-09287-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12546-022-09287-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert Chevan & Michael Sutherland, 2009. "Revisiting das gupta: Refinement and extension of standardization and decomposition," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(3), pages 429-449, August.
    2. Sam Hyun Yoo & Tomáš Sobotka, 2018. "Ultra-low fertility in South Korea: The role of the tempo effect," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(22), pages 549-576.
    3. Sam Hyun Yoo, 2016. "Postponement and recuperation in cohort marriage: The experience of South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(35), pages 1045-1078.
    4. Rowland, Donald T., 2003. "Demographic Methods and Concepts," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198752639.
    5. Wolfgang Lutz & Vegard Skirbekk, 2005. "Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low‐Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(4), pages 699-720, December.
    6. Jinjing Li, 2017. "Rate decomposition for aggregate data using Das Gupta’s method," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(2), pages 490-502, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Stucki, 2021. "Factors related to the change in Swiss inpatient costs by disease: a 6-factor decomposition," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(2), pages 195-221, March.
    2. Sam Hyun Yoo & Victor Agadjanian, 2021. "The paradox of change: Religion and fertility decline in South Korea," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(23), pages 537-562.
    3. Nie, Peng & Ding, Lanlin & Sousa-Poza, Alfonso, 2019. "Decomposing adult obesity trends in China (1991–2011)," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 5-15.
    4. Jolene Tan & Shao-Tzu Yu, 2024. "A life course perspective: women’s childhood background and family formation trajectories in low-fertility South Korea," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 1-16, June.
    5. Massimiliano Bratti & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2012. "The effect of delaying motherhood on the second childbirth in Europe," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 291-321, January.
    6. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Brigitte Weber & Enzo Weber, 2018. "Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 33-58, February.
    7. Yuchao Chen & Yunus A. Kinkhabwala & Boris Barron & Matthew Hall & Tomás A. Arias & Itai Cohen, 2024. "Small-area population forecasting in a segregated city using density-functional fluctuation theory," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 2255-2275, December.
    8. Jesus Rodrigo-Comino & Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati & Giovanni Quaranta & Rosanna Salvia & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis," Data, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-14, February.
    9. Dirk J. van de Kaa, 2006. "Temporarily New: On Low Fertility and the Prospect of Pro-natal Policies," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 193-211.
    10. James Raymer & Andrei Rogers, 2007. "Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(2), pages 199-223, May.
    11. -, 2016. "The development of population projections for the Turks and Caicos Islands 2012-2027," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 40406, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Lisa Denny, 2018. "Decomposition: population ageing at a sub-national level using Tasmania, Australia as a case study," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 151-167, June.
    13. Fleckenstein, Timo & Lee, Soohyun Christine & Mohun Himmelweit, Sam, 2023. "Labour market dualization, permanent insecurity and fertility: the case of ultra-low fertility in South Korea," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117935, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model," IAB-Discussion Paper 201701, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    15. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Jim Oeppen & Niels Vilstrup Holm & Hanne Melgaard Nielsen & Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen & Maarten Jan Wensink, 2019. "Understanding Differences in Cancer Survival between Populations: A New Approach and Application to Breast Cancer Survival Differentials between Danish Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-16, August.
    16. Cécile Bonneau & Sébastien Grobon, 2022. "Unequal Access to Higher Education Based on Parental Income: Evidence From France," Working Papers halshs-03573453, HAL.
    17. Magdalena Smyk & Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2021. "A Cautionary Note on the Reliability of the Online Survey Data: The Case of Wage Indicator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 429-464, February.
    18. Aart C. Liefbroer & Dimiter Philipov & Francesco C. Billari, 2006. "The Postponement of Childbearing in Europe: Driving Forces and Implications," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17.
    19. Tom Wilson, 2022. "Preparing local area population forecasts using a bi-regional cohort-component model without the need for local migration data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(32), pages 919-956.
    20. Cécile Bonneau & Sébastien Grobon, 2022. "Unequal access to higher education based on parental income: evidence from France ," World Inequality Lab Working Papers halshs-03693195, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:39:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s12546-022-09287-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.