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Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets: The Role of Commodity Prices

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  • Nicolas E. Magud
  • Sebastian Sosa

Abstract

We examine how firm-level and country-specific macroeconomic variables determine corporate investment in emerging markets. In particular, we investigate how investment decisions are affected by changes in country-speci c commodity export prices, using rm- level data from 38 emerging markets for the period 1990–2013. We show that in addition to the standard firm-level variables (such as expected future profitability, cash flows, leverage, and new debt flows), commodity export prices play a signi cant role in driving corporate investment. Moreover, we show that the sharp decline in commodity prices since 2011 has been a key factor explaining the sizable slowdown in private investment growth during this period, especially in regions with large net commodity exporters.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas E. Magud & Sebastian Sosa, 2017. "Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets: The Role of Commodity Prices," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2017), pages 157-195, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000425:015831
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    Cited by:

    1. Delong Li & Nicolas E. Magud & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Financial Shocks and Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 613-644, March.
    2. Steve Brito & Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2018. "Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment," IMF Working Papers 2018/107, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bertrand Gruss & Suhaib Kebhaj, 2019. "Commodity Terms of Trade: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/021, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Long, Shaobo & Pei, Hongxia & Tian, Hao & Li, Fangfang, 2021. "Asymmetric impacts of economic policy uncertainty, capital cost, and raw material cost on China’s investment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 129-144.
    5. Druck, Pablo & Magud, Nicolas E. & Mariscal, Rodrigo, 2018. "Collateral damage: Dollar strength and emerging markets’ growth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 97-117.
    6. Weicheng Lian & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Yannick Timmer & Petia Topalova, 2020. "The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 509-549, September.
    7. Magud, Nicolas E. & Pienknagura, Samuel, 2024. "The return of expansionary austerity: Firms' investment response to fiscal adjustments in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Weicheng Lian & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Yannick Timmer & Petia Topalova, 0. "The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-41.
    9. Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2021. "Slowing investment rates in developing economies: Evidence from a Bayesian hierarchical model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; emerging markets; commodity prices; capital in ows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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