IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chb/bcchwp/773.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Fornero
  • Markus Kirchner
  • Andrés Yany

Abstract

We study the effects of commodity price shocks in small open commodity-exporting economies, focusing on metals prices and their impact on sectoral investment. First, using a standard SVAR approach, we conduct estimations for major commodity exporters (Australia, Canada, Chile, New Zealand, Peru and South Africa) to identify general cross-country patterns. Second, we use a DSGE model for Chile to study the propagation channels of commodity price changes and to implement counterfactual policy exercises. Our results suggest expansionary effects of commodity price increases in most countries, driven by positive responses of commodity investment that spill over to non-commodity sectors. The magnitude of these responses depends mainly on the size of the share of commodity exports and on the degree of persistency of the shock. Finally, our policy exercises highlight the importance of flexible inflation targeting, floating exchange rates and structural fiscal rules to efficiently manage commodity price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Andrés Yany, 2016. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 773, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:773
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_773.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
    2. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
    3. José De Gregorio & Felipe Labbé, 2011. "Copper, the Real Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 640, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, September.
    5. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," Research Department Publications 4569, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Oxana Malakhovskaya & Alexey Minabutdinov, 2014. "Are commodity price shocks important? A Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for Russia," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 148-180.
    7. Bank for International Settlements, 2010. "Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 49.
    8. Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2010. "Chile’s Structural Fiscal Surplus Rule: a Model-Based Evaluation," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(3), pages 5-32, December.
    9. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Evaluating an estimated new Keynesian small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2690-2721, August.
    11. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2014. "Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America: Living and Dying by Commodities?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 110-137, March.
    12. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    13. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    14. Gubler, Matthias & Hertweck, Matthias S., 2013. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycle: Structural evidence for the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 324-352.
    15. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    16. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    17. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," Research Department Publications 4569, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    18. Andrew Filardo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2014. "Has Asian emerging market monetary policy been too procyclical when responding to swings in commodity prices?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 129-153, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
    20. Jorge Desormeaux & Pablo García & Claudio Soto, 2010. "Terms of trade, commodity prices and inflation dynamics in Chile," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy and the measurement of inflation: prices, wages and expectations, volume 49, pages 115-128, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Bank for International Settlements, 2014. "Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 77.
    22. Juan Pablo Medina & Anella Munro & Claudio Soto, 2008. "What Drives the Current Account in Comodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 10, pages 369-434, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Silke Tober & Tobias Zimmermann, 2009. "Monetary policy and commodity price shocks," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 44(4), pages 231-237, July.
    24. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    25. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    26. Knop, Stephen J. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "The sectorial impact of commodity price shocks in Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 257-271.
    27. Raddatz, Claudio, 2007. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
    28. Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Gustavo Adler, 2011. "Commodity Price Cycles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom," IMF Working Papers 2011/283, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 457, Central Bank of Chile.
    30. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner, 2018. "Learning about Commodity Cycles and Saving-Investment Dynamics in a Commodity-Exporting Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 205-262, March.
    31. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    32. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    33. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    34. Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alarcon Gambarte, Samuel, 2019. "Shocks de precios internacionales bajo incertidumbre estocástica [International Prices Shocks under Stochastic Uncertainty]," MPRA Paper 97116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner, 2018. "Learning about Commodity Cycles and Saving-Investment Dynamics in a Commodity-Exporting Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 205-262, March.
    3. Benjamín García & Sebastián Guarda & Markus Kirchner & Rodrigo Tranamil, 2019. "XMAS: An extended model for analysis and simulations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 833, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    6. Khalil, Makram, 2020. "Global oil prices and the macroeconomy: The role of tradeable manufacturing versus nontradeable services," Discussion Papers 60/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," Working Papers hal-04141574, HAL.
    10. Medina, Juan Pablo & Soto, Claudio, 2016. "Commodity prices and fiscal policy in a commodity exporting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 335-351.
    11. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    12. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Joëts, Marc & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 63-78.
    13. Baas, Timo & Belke, Ansgar, 2017. "Oil price shocks, monetary policy and current account imbalances within a currency union," GLO Discussion Paper Series 160, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    14. Delpachitra, Sarath & Hou, Keqiang & Cottrell, Simon, 2020. "The impact of oil price shocks in the Canadian economy: A structural investigation on an oil-exporting economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    15. Khalil, Makram, 2022. "Oil prices, manufacturing goods, and nontradeable services," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    16. Bertrand Gruss, 2014. "After the Boom–Commodity Prices and Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2014/154, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Oladunni, Sunday, 2020. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics in an Oil-Exporting Emerging Economy: A New Keynesian DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 104551, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jun 2020.
    18. Archanskaïa, Elizaveta & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "The nature of oil shocks and the global economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 509-520.
    19. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A model for international spillovers to emerging markets," Working Paper Research 370, National Bank of Belgium.
    20. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:773. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alvaro Castillo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.