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Slowing investment rates in developing economies: Evidence from a Bayesian hierarchical model

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  • Strauss, Ilan
  • Yang, Jangho

Abstract

Using a large unbalanced panel of 11,812 publicly listed firms covering 11 major developing economies between 1997–2017, we detail a slowdown in investment rates post-2008: from 2013 for Chinese incorporated firms, and 2008 for others. We test competing explanations for slowing investment rates using a Bayesian ‘mixed effects’ model consisting of time-varying and country-varying coefficients. Firms’ estimated underlying mean impetus to invest (their ‘animal spirits’) falls more sharply than raw investment rates from 2008 to record lows by 2017. One-third of the variation in falling ‘animal spirits’ over time is statistically explained by the corporate sector’s changing median leverage, which declines by 40% since 2008. Firms’ investment rates have increasingly been sustained through external financing constraints loosening (as cash flow coefficients decline), and firms becoming more responsive to investment opportunities — reflected by time-varying Q regression coefficients increasing. At the country-level, we find that loosening external financing constraints is associated with greater responsiveness of firms to investment opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2021. "Slowing investment rates in developing economies: Evidence from a Bayesian hierarchical model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:77:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921001769
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101843
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Developing economy firms; Investment rates; Finance constrained; Tobin’s Q; Bayesian econometrics; Leverage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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