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Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We?

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  • Mr. Nicolas E Magud
  • Mr. Sebastian Sosa

Abstract

We document that (i) although private investment growth in emerging markets has decelerated in recent years, it came down from cyclical highs and remains close to pre-crisis trends; and (ii) investment-to-output ratios generally remain close to or above historical averages. We show that investment is positively related to expect future profitability, cash flows and debt flows, and negatively associated with leverage. Critically, it is also positively related to (country-specific) commodity export prices and capital inflows. Lower commodity export prices and expected profitability, a moderation in capital inflows, and increased leverage account for the bulk of the recent investment deceleration.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2015. "Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We?," IMF Working Papers 2015/077, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/077
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    2. Waldo Mendoza Bellido & Erika Collantes Goicochea, 2018. "The Determinants of Private Investment in a Mining Export Economy. Peru: 1997-2017," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-463, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
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    5. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Juliana Milovich, 2017. "Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 44, may..
    6. Aydin Ozkan & Roberto J. Santillán‐Salgado & Yilmaz Yildiz & María del Rocío Vega Zavala, 2020. "What Happened To The Willingness Of Companies To Invest After The Financial Crisis? Evidence From Latin American Countries," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 231-262, May.
    7. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. José María Serena & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Does exchange rate depreciation have contractionary effects on firm-level investment?," BIS Working Papers 624, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner, 2018. "Learning about Commodity Cycles and Saving-Investment Dynamics in a Commodity-Exporting Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(2), pages 205-262, March.
    10. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2020. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," BIS Working Papers 839, Bank for International Settlements.
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    12. Delong Li & Nicolas E. Magud & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Financial Shocks and Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2-3), pages 613-644, March.
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    15. Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2021. "Slowing investment rates in developing economies: Evidence from a Bayesian hierarchical model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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