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Collateral damage: Dollar strength and emerging markets’ growth

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  • Druck, Pablo
  • Magud, Nicolas E.
  • Mariscal, Rodrigo

Abstract

We document a negative relation between the strength of the U.S. dollar and emerging markets’ growth: when the dollar is strong, emerging markets’ real GDP growth decreases—and vice versa. The main transmission channel is through (i) an income effect owing to the impact of the dollar on global commodity prices, and (ii) capital/production-inputs imports. As the dollar strengthens, dollar-commodity prices fall, depressing domestic demand growth via lower dollar income, thus reducing emerging markets’ growth. Domestic demand decelerates in countries relying on importing capital/inputs for domestic production, as their cost increases when their currencies weaken, despite any expansionary expenditure-switching effect.

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  • Druck, Pablo & Magud, Nicolas E. & Mariscal, Rodrigo, 2018. "Collateral damage: Dollar strength and emerging markets’ growth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 97-117.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:43:y:2018:i:c:p:97-117
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2017.10.007
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    2. Nicolas Eterovic & Dalibor Eterovic, 2022. "Stocks, Bonds and the US Dollar - Measuring Domestic and International Market Developments in an Emerging Market," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 964, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    4. Eterovic, Dalibor & Sweet, Cassandra & Eterovic, Nicolas, 2022. "Asymmetric spillovers in emerging market monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 650-662.
    5. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Threshold cointegration, nonlinearity, and frequency domain causality relationship between stock price and Turkish Lira," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Steve Brito & Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2018. "Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment," IMF Working Papers 2018/107, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Vatsa, Puneet, 2022. "Do crop prices share common trends and common cycles?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(02), January.
    8. Geyikçi, Utku Bora & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2023. "Deviations from covered interest parity in the emerging markets after the global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Nyambuu, Unurjargal & Semmler, Willi, 2017. "Emerging markets’ resource booms and busts, borrowing risk and regime change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 29-42.
    10. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome & Olarewaju, Favour, 2020. "Broad Dollar Shocks and Economic Activity in Trade-Heavy Countries: The Role of Government Size," MPRA Paper 100944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Zhenghui Li & Zhiming Ao & Bin Mo, 2021. "Revisiting the Valuable Roles of Global Financial Assets for International Stock Markets: Quantile Coherence and Causality-in-Quantiles Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-18, July.
    12. Alfaro, Laura & Asis, Gonzalo & Chari, Anusha & Panizza, Ugo, 2019. "Corporate debt, firm size and financial fragility in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-19.
    13. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Li, Ka-Fai & Fu, John, 2018. "Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 98-110.
    14. Doojav, Gan-Ochir & Purevdorj, Munkhbayar & Batjargal, Anand, 2024. "The macroeconomic effects of exchange rate movements in a commodity-exporting developing economy," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dollar cycles; Emerging markets growth; Income vs. substitution effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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