IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2018-107.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Steve Brito
  • Mr. Nicolas E Magud
  • Mr. Sebastian Sosa

Abstract

We show that the response of firm-level investment to real exchange rate movements varies depending on the production structure of the economy. Firms in advanced economies and in emerging Asia increase investment when the domestic currency weakens, in line with the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. However, in other emerging market and developing economies, as well as some advanced economies with a low degree of structural economic complexity, corporate investment increases when the domestic currency strengthens. This result is consistent with Diaz Alejandro (1963)—in economies where capital goods are mostly imported, a stronger real exchange rate reduces investment costs for domestic firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Steve Brito & Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2018. "Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment," IMF Working Papers 2018/107, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45867
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Magud, Nicolas E., 2008. "On asymmetric business cycles and the effectiveness of counter-cyclical fiscal policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 885-905, September.
    2. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(6), pages 577-577.
    3. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    4. Mr. Sergi Lanau, 2017. "The Sectoral Effects of Real Depreciations in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2017/249, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Nicolas E. Magud & Sebastian Sosa, 2017. "Corporate Investment in Emerging Markets: The Role of Commodity Prices," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2017), pages 157-195, November.
    6. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    7. Druck, Pablo & Magud, Nicolas E. & Mariscal, Rodrigo, 2018. "Collateral damage: Dollar strength and emerging markets’ growth," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 97-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ryan Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2022. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 296-312, December.
    3. Magud, Nicolas E. & Pienknagura, Samuel, 2024. "The return of expansionary austerity: Firms' investment response to fiscal adjustments in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Dao, Mai Chi & Minoiu, Camelia & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2021. "Corporate investment and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. A. K. Moiseev & P. A. Bondarenko, 2020. "Application of the Economic Complexity Index in Macro-Financial Models," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 318-326, May.
    6. Ben Saad, Myriam & Brahim, Mariem & Schaffar, Alexandra & Guesmi, Khaled & Ben Saad, Rym, 2023. "Economic complexity, diversification and economic development: The strategic factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Anton Grui & Artem Vdovychenko, 2019. "Quarterly Projection Model for Ukraine," Working Papers 03/2019, National Bank of Ukraine.
    8. Henry Laverde-Rojas & Juan C. Correa, 2019. "Can scientific productivity impact the economic complexity of countries?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 120(1), pages 267-282, July.
    9. M. Utku Özmen, 2019. "Economic complexity and sovereign risk premia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1714-1726.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giacomo Saibene & Silvia Sicouri, 2012. "Effects of Currency Devaluations on the Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Role of Foreign Currency-Denominated Debt," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 40(2), pages 191-209, June.
    2. Mr. Alexander Culiuc, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Large Depreciations: Determinants and Consequences," IMF Working Papers 2020/060, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia & Aliona Cebotari & Kevin Greenidge & Geoffrey N. Keim, 2015. "External Devaluations: Are Small States Different?," IMF Working Papers 2015/240, International Monetary Fund.
    4. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    5. repec:phd:pjdevt:jpd_1990_vol__xvii_no__2-d is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Debabrata Datta & Susmita Chatterjee, 2013. "A Simple Model of Macroeconomic Instability in the Background of the Indian Economy," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 2(1), pages 81-106, June.
    7. Ricardo Bebczuk & Arturo Galindo & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Hadi Salehi Esfahani & Giovanni Facchini & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings (ed.), Economic Development in Latin America, chapter 8, pages 102-117, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Gerchunoff, Pablo & Rapetti, Martín, 2016. "La economía argentina y su conflicto distributivo estructural (1930-2015)," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(330), pages .225-272, abril-jun.
    9. Emiliano Brancaccio & Nadia Garbellini, 2015. "Currency regime crises, real wages, functional income distribution and production," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 255-276, December.
    10. Ilan GOLDFAJN & Gino OLIVARES, 2001. "Can Flexible Exchange Rates Still “Work” In Financially Open Economies?," G-24 Discussion Papers 8, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    11. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
    12. Emmanuel Uche & Sunday Ikedinobi Nwamiri, 2022. "Dynamic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Productivity Levels: New Evidence From Nigeria Based on NARDL," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 7(1), pages 96-111, January.
    13. de Ferra, Sergio & Mitman, Kurt & Romei, Federica, 2020. "Household heterogeneity and the transmission of foreign shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    14. Kim, Yoonbai & Ying, Yung-Hsiang, 2007. "An empirical assessment of currency devaluation in East Asian countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-283, March.
    15. Ghura, Dhaneshwar, 1995. "Effects of macroeconomic policies on income growth, inflation, and output growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 367-395, August.
    16. Yeldan, A. Erinc, 1997. "Financial liberalization and fiscal repression in Turkey: Policy analysis in a CGE model with financial markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-117, February.
    17. Taye, Haile Kebret, 1999. "The Impact of Devaluation on Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, July.
    18. Echeverry, Juan Carlos & Fergusson, Leopoldo & Steiner, Roberto & Aguilar, Camila, 2003. "'Dollar' debt in Colombian firms: are sinners punished during devaluations?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 417-449, December.
    19. Adebayo Mohammed, Ojuolape & H. Agboola, Yusuf & K. Moshood, Alabi & O. Abdullah, Oladipupo, 2020. "The Effects of Currency Devaluation on Output Growth in Developing Economies with Currency Crises," Working Papers 7, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin.
    20. Magud, Nicolas E., 2010. "Currency mismatch, openness and exchange rate regime choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 68-89, March.
    21. Nunnenkamp, Peter & Schweickert, Rainer, 1990. "Real exchange rates and economic growth in developing countries: Is devaluation contractionary?," Kiel Working Papers 405, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.