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Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2016: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen. In dem Beitrag wird die ifo Prognose vom Dezember 2015 für das vergangene Jahr vor dem Hintergrund der jüngst veröffentlichten Ergebnisse der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen für 2016 diskutiert. Zudem wird auf die Prognosequalität des Instituts im langjährigen Durchschnitt eingegangen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2016: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 72-78, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:02:p:72-78
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    2. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
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    4. Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif, 2016. "Eine Flash-Schätzung für die privaten Konsumausgaben in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(21), pages 36-41, November.
    5. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methoden der ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    6. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger, 2015. "ifo Konjunkturampel revisited," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(05), pages 27-32, March.
    8. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(6), pages 465-465.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2018. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2017: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(03), pages 35-42, February.

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