IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v71y2018i03p35-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2017: Prognose und Wirklichkeit

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das ifo Institut beleuchtet seit Jahren kritisch die Güte der eigenen Konjunkturprognosen. In dem Beitrag wird die ifo Prognose vom Dezember 2016 für das Jahr 2017 vor dem Hintergrund der jüngst veröffentlichten Ergebnisse der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen diskutiert. Zudem wird auf die Prognosequalität des Instituts im langjährigen Durchschnitt eingegangen.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2018. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2017: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(03), pages 35-42, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:03:p:35-42
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2018-03-nierhaus-prognose-wirklichkeit-2018-02-08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 143-144, April.
    2. Chatfield, Chris, 1993. "Calculating Interval Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 121-135, April.
    3. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & S. Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & F, 2017. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2017/2018: Deutsche Wirtschaft stark und stabil," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(12), pages 30-83, June.
    4. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methoden der ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
    6. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    7. Annette Weichselberger, 2017. "Deutsche Industrie: Erhöhte Investitionsbereitschaft 2017," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(17), pages 45-49, September.
    8. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Atanas Hristov & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Wolfgang Meister & Johanna Garn, 2014. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2014/2015: Deutscher Aufschwung setzt sich fort," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(13), pages 17-58, July.
    9. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    10. Kai Carstensen & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Oliver Hülsewig & Klaus Abberger & Teresa Buchen & Christian Breuer & Steffen Elstner & Steffen Henzel & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Johannes Mayr & Wolfg, 2009. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2010: Deutsche Wirtschaft ohne Dynamik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(24), pages 17-64, December.
    11. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2016: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 72-78, January.
    12. Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ina Becker & Steffen Henzel & Oliver Hülsewig & Erich Langmantel & Johannes Mayr & Wolfgang Meister & Monika Ruschinski & Dirk Ulbricht & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2006/2007: Aufschwung setzt sich fort," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(12), pages 19-54, June.
    13. Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif, 2016. "Eine Flash-Schätzung für die privaten Konsumausgaben in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(21), pages 36-41, November.
    14. repec:ces:ifosdt:v::y:2017:i:17:p:45-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Kai Carstensen & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger & Tim Oliver Berg & Teresa Buchen & Christian Breuer & Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Jo, 2010. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2011: Aufschwung setzt sich verlangsamt fort," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(24), pages 18-68, December.
    16. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Johanna Garnitz & Christian Grimme & Atanas Hristov & Nikolay Hristov & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Reif & Felix Schröter &, 2015. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2015/2017: Verhaltener Aufschwung setzt sich fort," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(24), pages 23-66, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2018: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 22-29, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2019. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2018: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 22-29, February.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2020. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2019: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(01), pages 51-57, January.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2016: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 72-78, January.
    4. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, January.
    6. Timo Wollmershäuser & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Ann-Christin Rathje & Magnus Reif & Radek Šauer &, 2018. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2018: Deutsche Konjunktur kühlt sich ab," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(24), pages 28-82, December.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2015. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2014: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(02), pages 43-49, January.
    8. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    9. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Rad, 2017. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2017–2019: Deutsche Wirtschaft auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(24), pages 28-81, December.
    10. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2016. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2015: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(03), pages 34-40, February.
    11. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    13. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Timo Wollmershäuser & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Nikolay Hristov & Dorine Boumans & Johanna Garnitz & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Stefan Lauterbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Meister & Magnus Rei, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2016–2018: Robuste deutsche Konjunktur vor einem Jahr ungewisser internationaler Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(24), pages 28-73, December.
    15. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2005: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.
    16. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    19. Lee, Yun Shin & Scholtes, Stefan, 2014. "Empirical prediction intervals revisited," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 217-234.
    20. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier & Kim, Jae, 2016. "Stock Return Predictability: Evaluation based on Prediction Intervals," MPRA Paper 70143, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Dhaoui, Iyad, 2015. "Climat des Affaires et Compétitivité de l’Entreprise Tunisienne Après la Révolution : Analyses et Perspectives [Business Climate and Competitiveness of the Tunisian Enterprise After the Revolution:," MPRA Paper 87331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2005. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for power-transformed time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 219-235.
    23. Klaus Abberger, 2006. "Kernel smoothed prediction intervals for ARMA models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-15, January.
    24. Roberto Buizza & James W. Taylor, 2004. "A comparison of temperature density forecasts from GARCH and atmospheric models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 337-355.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:03:p:35-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.