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Zur Aussagekraft der Ergebnisse des ifo Konjunkturtests auf regionaler Ebene

Author

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  • Georg Goldrian

Abstract

Die Ergebnisse der Befragung von Unternehmern der Gewerblichen Wirtschaft in Baden-Württemberg im Rahmen des Konjunkturtests des ifo Instituts geben nicht nur einen frühen Hinweis auf die aktuelle wirtschaftliche Lage in diesem Land, sondern können auch als Frühindikatoren für die weitere konjunkturelle Entwicklung betrachtet werden. Das Letztere gilt in erster Linie für die zu verschiedenen Sachverhalten geäußerten Erwartungen. Aber auch Urteile zur aktuellen Lage zeigen insofern frühindikatorische Fähigkeiten, als sie gegenüber der amtlichen Statistik einen Veröffentlichungsvorsprung von bis zu sechs Wochen aufweisen.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Zur Aussagekraft der Ergebnisse des ifo Konjunkturtests auf regionaler Ebene," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(11), pages 30-33, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:11:p:30-33
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2003_11_4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Kurzfristige Branchenprognosen auf Basis von Ergebnissen des ifo Konjunkturtests," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(08), pages 31-33, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.

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    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    2. Georg Goldrian, 2004. "Ein Frühindikator für die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(07), pages 41-43, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    KOnjunkturumfrage; Regionale Wirtschaftsstruktur; Baden-Württemberg;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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