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Ein Frühindikator für die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts

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  • Georg Goldrian

Abstract

2001 wurde vom ifo Institut ein synthetischer Frühindikator für das trendbereinigte_reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt vorgestellt, der sich ausschließlich aus qualitativen Zeitreihen zusammensetzt. Es handelt sich dabei um Reihen aus dem ifo Konjunkturtest und dem GfK Konsumklima. Hier wird eine neue Variante vorgestellt, in die die kurzfristigen Zinsen miteinbezogen sind. Dieser gemischte synthetische Indikator weist bei einem Vorlauf von durchschnittlich vier Monaten eine etwas bessere konjunkturelle Übereinstimmung mit der Referenzreihe auf. Damit lässt sich ein noch leistungsfähigerer Frühindikator für die Jahreswachstumsraten des realen BIP entwickeln.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Goldrian, 2004. "Ein Frühindikator für die Entwicklung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(07), pages 41-43, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:07:p:41-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Georg Goldrian, 2001. "Aus Befragungsdaten zusammengesetzte Frühindikatoren - Adäquate Bauweise und prognostische Aussagekraft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(22), pages 32-36, December.
    2. Georg Goldrian, 2004. "Handbuch der umfragebasierten Konjunkturforschung," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 15.
    3. Georg Goldrian, 2003. "Kurzfristige Branchenprognosen auf Basis von Ergebnissen des ifo Konjunkturtests," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(08), pages 31-33, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturindikator; Sozialprodukt; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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