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Preparing for pandemic response in the context of limited resources

Author

Listed:
  • Jair Andrade
  • Berend Beishuizen
  • Mart Stein
  • Máire Connolly
  • Jim Duggan

Abstract

Pandemics are outbreaks of an infectious disease that increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographic area. These events require large‐scale interventions from governments and health agencies to curtail transmission within a population. In assessing the impact of these interventions, policymakers avail themselves of simulations from compartmental models. However, it is commonplace that modellers employ fixed fractions to represent interventions, which implicitly assume that resources instantaneously and boundlessly adjust to the desired target and may predict overly optimistic outcomes. Here, we propose a model that integrates four crucial countermeasures subject to resource constraints. We present this structure utilising the concept of small models and frame the simulations in the context of a hypothetical spread of influenza in the Netherlands, drawing on empirical data. After incorporating resource constraints, we find that only a comprehensive response controls the disease. These findings highlight the need for improving strategic plans to support pandemic preparedness. © 2024 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Jair Andrade & Berend Beishuizen & Mart Stein & Máire Connolly & Jim Duggan, 2024. "Preparing for pandemic response in the context of limited resources," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 40(3), July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sysdyn:v:40:y:2024:i:3:n:e1775
    DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1775
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    References listed on IDEAS

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