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Epidemics With Behavior

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  • Kos, Nenad
  • Fukuda, Satoshi
  • Carnehl, Christoph

Abstract

We study social distancing in an epidemiological model. Distancing reduces the individual’s probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. Equilibrium distancing flattens the curve and decreases the final size of the epidemic. We examine the effects of distancing on the outset, the peak, and the final size of the epidemic. Our results suggest that public policies that decrease the transmission rate can lead to unintended negative consequences in the short run but not in the long run. Therefore, it is important to distinguish between the interventions that affect the transmission rate and the interventions that affect contact rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kos, Nenad & Fukuda, Satoshi & Carnehl, Christoph, 2021. "Epidemics With Behavior," CEPR Discussion Papers 16429, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16429
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Carnehl & Satoshi Fukuda & Nenad Kos, 2022. "Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue and Lockdowns," Papers 2206.03847, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemics; Equilibrium distancing; Transmission rate; Interventions; Sir;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

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