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Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte

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  • Helmut Seitz
  • Dirk Freigang
  • Sören Högel
  • Gerhard Kempkes

Abstract

We examine the impact of demographic change on the level and the structure of federal, state and local government expenditures in Germany up to the year 2020 by using estimates of the age structure sensitivity of spending in almost 30 functions. Special attention is given to differences between East and West Germany. Whereas East German state and local governments can expect significant savings from shrinking population size and from shifts in the age structure, subnational government budgets in the West are only slightly affected. Federal government spending will increase due to the rise in spending on the elderly. The results suggest that significant adjustments of public budgets at the expenditure side are necessary in order to cope with the fiscal challenges of demographic change.

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  • Helmut Seitz & Dirk Freigang & Sören Högel & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 147-164, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:8:y:2007:i:2:p:147-164
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2516.2007.00238.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Benny Geys & Friedrich Heinemann & Alexander Kalb, 2008. "Local Governments in the Wake of Demographic Change: Evidence from German Municipalities," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 64(4), pages 434-457, December.
    2. Helmut Seitz, 2009. "Demographie und soziale Infrastruktur am Beispiel des Freistaates Thüringen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(01), pages 18-27, February.
    3. Mandy Kriese, 2008. "Effizienzanalyse der sächsischen Gemeinden," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(05), pages .3-13, October.
    4. Mandy Kriese, 2008. "Effizienzanalyse der sächsischen Gemeinden," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(05), pages 3-13, October.
    5. Alexander Ebertz & Mandy Kriese & Marcel Thum & Helke Seitz, 2008. "Bewertung von lokalen Standortfaktoren für Haushalte und Unternehmen in Sachsen: Entwicklung von Indikatoren zur Überprüfung der Demographietauglichkeit von Förderprojekten der Sächsischen Aufbaubank:," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 46.
    6. Eckart Bomsdorf & Bernhard Babel, 2008. "Bevölkerungsentwicklung in Sachsen bis 2040 : Modellrechnungen und regressionsanalytische Sensitivitätsbetrachtungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(02), pages 19-28, 04.
    7. Geys, Benny & Heinemann, Friedrich & Kalb, Alexander, 2007. "Local Governments in the Wake of Demographic Change: Efficiency and Economies of Scale in German Municipalities," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-036, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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