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Die Pensionslasten - Eine Bedrohung der zukünftigen Handlungsfähigkeit der Länder

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  • Thomas Fester
  • Marcel Thum

Abstract

Deutschland steht vor einem demographischen Wandel, der zu gravierenden Anpassungsmaßnahmen in den staatlichen Sozialsystemen zwingt. Die Diskussion um die Reformen der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung hat das allen Bürgern in Deutschland vor Augen geführt. Heute finanzieren vier Personen im erwerbstätigen Alter einen Rentner. In 30 Jahren müssen dies zwei Erwerbstätige schaffen. Während die steigenden Lasten in der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung inzwischen weitgehend bekannt sind, wird über das zweite große System der Altersversorgung in Deutschland, das Pensionssystem der Beamten, viel weniger diskutiert. Doch auch hier wird sich die Alterung der Bevölkerung auswirken und den Staatshaushalt belasten. Zwar hat die Politik diese Problematik inzwischen erkannt; eine massive Belastung der öffentlichen Haushalte wird sich damit jedoch nicht verhindern lassen. Der Anstieg der Pensionslasten wird sogar noch stärker ausfallen als in der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung. Dieser Beitrag diskutiert die derzeitige Lage des Pensionssystems, die zukünftige Entwicklung und einige Politikoptionen. Exemplarisch werden hierbei mittels einer Simulationsrechnung die Haushaltsbelastungen für den Freistaat Sachsen bis ins Jahr 2040 betrachtet. Die Rechnungen zeigen, dass gerade in den neuen Bundesländern der Anstieg der Pensionslasten zu erheblichen fiskalischen Problemen führen wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Fester & Marcel Thum, 2003. "Die Pensionslasten - Eine Bedrohung der zukünftigen Handlungsfähigkeit der Länder," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(23), pages 03-09, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:23:p:03-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tito Boeri & Axel Börsch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 08-50.
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    1. Seitz, Helmut & Freigang, Dirk & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Demographic Change and Federal Systems: Some Preliminary Results for Germany," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 07/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    2. Helmut Seitz & Dirk Freigang & Sören Högel & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 147-164, March.
    3. Besendorfer, Daniel & Dang, Emily Phuong & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2005. "Die Pensionslasten der Bundesländer im Vergleich: Status Quo und zukünftige Entwicklung," Discussion Papers 129, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    4. Seitz, Helmut, 2004. "Implikationen der demographischen Veränderungen für die öffentlichen Haushalte und Verwaltungen," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 08/04, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographie; Sozialstaat; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Rentenreform; Deutschland; Sachsen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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