IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/pubfin/v35y2007i3p385-413.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Federalism and Demography

Author

Listed:
  • Helmut Seitz

    (Dresden University of Technology, Germany)

  • Gerhard Kempkes

    (Dresden University of Technology, Germany)

Abstract

This article examines the effects of demographic change on federal, state, and local government expenditures in Germany to answer the question of whether demographic change will induce vertical fiscal expenditure imbalances. The authors present estimates of the impact of demographic change on public spending based on a decomposition of expenditures into twenty-nine categories (functions). Results suggest that demographic change will result in significant vertical expenditure imbalances between the federal and the subnational government sector as well as within the subnational government sector. In addition, the estimates show that the structure of expenditures by function has to be adjusted considerably to avoid deficits since demographically induced increases in expenditures in some important functions, such as pension payments, have to be counterbalanced by exploiting potential savings that arise from demographic change in other functions.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Seitz & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Fiscal Federalism and Demography," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(3), pages 385-413, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:35:y:2007:i:3:p:385-413
    DOI: 10.1177/1091142106293948
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1091142106293948
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1091142106293948?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gradstein, Mark & Kaganovich, Michael, 2004. "Aging population and education finance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 2469-2485, December.
    2. Ueli Grob & Stefan C. Wolter, 2007. "Demographic Change and Public Education Spending: A Conflict between Young and Old?," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 277-292.
    3. Ryan D. Edwards & Ronald D. Lee, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    4. James M. Poterba, 1997. "Demographic structure and the political economy of public education," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 48-66.
    5. Echevarria, Cruz A, 1995. "On Age Distribution of Population, Government Expenditure and Fiscal Federalism," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 8(3), pages 301-313, August.
    6. Jonathan Gruber & David Wise, 2001. "An International Perspective on Policies for an Aging Society," NBER Working Papers 8103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Thai-Thanh Dang & Pablo Antolín & Howard Oxley, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-Related Spending," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 305, OECD Publishing.
    8. Martin Werding & Anita Dehne, 2005. "Modellrechnungen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 17.
    9. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2000. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Fiscal Developments?," Public Finance Review, , vol. 28(5), pages 468-488, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Don H. Chamberlain & L. Murphy Smith & Randall B. Bunker, 2016. "An examination of US state pensions by total state expenditures, state budget deficit and red v. blue state," International Journal of Economics and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 27-44.
    2. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2011. "Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels. Expertise im Auftrag der Bundesregierung," Occasional Reports / Expertisen, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75371.
    3. Xenia Frei & Joachim Ragnitz & Felix Rösel, 2018. "Kosten kommunaler Leistungserstellung unter dem Einfluss von demografischem Wandel und Urbanisierung," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 80.
    4. Michael Hofmann & Gerhard Kempkes & Helmut Seitz, 2008. "Demographic Change and Public Sector Budgets in a Federal System," CESifo Working Paper Series 2317, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seitz, Helmut & Kempkes, Gerhard, 2005. "Fiscal Federalism and Demography," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 10/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    2. Joachim Ragnitz & Stefan Eichler & Beate Henschel & Harald Lehmann & Carsten Pohl & Lutz Schneider & Helmut Seitz & Marcel Thum, 2007. "Die demographische Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland : Gutachten im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 41.
    3. Helmut Seitz & Dirk Freigang & Sören Högel & Gerhard Kempkes, 2007. "Die Auswirkungen der demographischen Veränderungen auf die Budgetstrukturen der öffentlichen Haushalte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 147-164, March.
    4. Michael Hofmann & Gerhard Kempkes & Helmut Seitz, 2008. "Demographic Change and Public Sector Budgets in a Federal System," CESifo Working Paper Series 2317, CESifo.
    5. Gianko Michailidis & Concepció Patxot & Meritxell Solé, 2019. "Do pensions foster education? An empirical perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(38), pages 4127-4150, August.
    6. Francisco Martínez-Mora, 2009. "Population ageing, inequality and the political economy of public education," Discussion Papers in Economics 09/3, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    7. Tosun, Mehmet Serkan, 2008. "Endogenous fiscal policy and capital market transmissions in the presence of demographic shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2031-2060, June.
    8. Cattaneo, M. Alejandra & Wolter, Stefan C., 2009. "Are the elderly a threat to educational expenditures?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 225-236, June.
    9. Lars-Erik Borge & Jørn Rattsø, 2007. "Young and old competing for public welfare services," Working Paper Series 8607, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    10. Niklas Potrafke, 2006. "Parties Matter in Allocating Expenditures: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 652, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Casamatta, G. & Batté, L., 2016. "The Political Economy of Population Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 381-444, Elsevier.
    12. ZAPJI YMELE Aime Philombe, 2024. "Human Capital Productivity and "ageing" Expenditure: An OECD Study," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(3), pages 1-1.
    13. Ulrich Oberndorfer & Viktor Steiner, 2007. "Generationen‐ oder Parteienkonflikt? Eine empirische Analyse der deutschen Hochschulausgaben," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(2), pages 165-183, March.
    14. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2012. "Ageing, government budgets, retirement, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-115.
    15. Tetsuo Ono, 2015. "Public education and social security: a political economy approach," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, February.
    16. Michael Kaganovich & Volker Meier, 2012. "Social Security Systems, Human Capital, and Growth in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 14(4), pages 573-600, August.
    17. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
    18. Jane Sneddon Little & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "The impact of demographic change on U. S. labor markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 47-68.
    19. Oberndorfer, Ulrich & Steiner, Viktor, 2006. "Intergenerational Conflict, Partisan Politics, and Public Higher Education Spending: Evidence from the German States," IZA Discussion Papers 2417, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Ueli Grob & Stefan C. Wolter, 2007. "Demographic Change and Public Education Spending: A Conflict between Young and Old?," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 277-292.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:35:y:2007:i:3:p:385-413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.