IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/joaaec/45046.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?

Author

Listed:
  • Frank, Julieta
  • Garcia, Philip
  • Irwin, Scott H.

Abstract

We reassess the effect of new information in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on announcements’ rationality and alternative surprises. HPR announcements are irrational estimates of final estimates, and market expectations are irrational estimates of HPR numbers. Using the market’s best forecast and incorporating final estimates, we modify conventional information measures. Despite differences as large as 33 cents/cwt in price response, findings suggest there is little to differentiate among surprise measures. Regardless, the message that HPR provides new information to the market is strongly supported. On balance, marketing (breeding) information has a larger effect on short-term (long-term) price changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:45046
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.45046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/45046/files/jaae-40-01-73.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.45046?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Runkle, 1991. "Are Farrowing Intentions Rational Forecasts?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 594-600.
    2. Koontz, Stephen R. & Hudson, Michael A. & Purcell, Wayne D., 1984. "The Impact Of Hog And Pig Reports On Live Hog Futures Prices: An Event Study Of Market Efficiency," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 278981, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. G.S. Maddala & Forrest D. Nelson, 1975. "Specification Errors in Limited Dependent Variable Models," NBER Working Papers 0096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Thorsten Egelkraut & Philip Garcia & Bruce Sherrick, 2007. "Options-based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 145-152.
    5. David E. Runkle, 1992. "Do futures markets react efficiently to predictable errors in Government Announcements?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 635-643, December.
    6. Kodres, Laura E, 1993. "Tests of Unbiasedness in the Foreign Exchange Futures Markets: An Examination of Price Limits and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 464-490, July.
    7. Philip Garcia, 2004. "A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(3), pages 235-272, September.
    8. Miller, Stephen E., 1979. "The Response Of Futures Prices To New Market Information: The Case Of Live Hogs," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-4, July.
    9. Falk, Barry L. & Orazem, Peter, 1989. "Measuring Market Responses to Error-Ridden Government Announcements," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11096, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. Miller, Steve, 1979. "The Response of Futures Prices to New Market Information: The Case of Live Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 67-70, July.
    12. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin, 1990. "The Reaction of Live Hog Futures Prices to USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 84-94.
    13. Meyer, Steve R. & Lawrence, John D., 1988. "Comparing USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports to Subsequent Slaughter: Does Systematic Error Exist?," Working Papers 256649, University of Missouri Columbia, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    14. Carter, Colin A., 1999. "Commodity futures markets: a survey," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(2), pages 1-39, June.
    15. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin, 1995. "Informational Content of Government Hogs and Pigs Reports: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(3), pages 698-702.
    16. Jeffrey B. Mills & Ted C. Schroeder, 2004. "Are cattle on feed report revisions random and does industry anticipate them?," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 363-374.
    17. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf, 1992. "Weak- and Strong-Form Rationality Tests of Market Analysts' Expectations of USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 263-270.
    18. Hurd, Michael, 1979. "Estimation in truncated samples when there is heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 247-258.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Houser & Berna Karali, 2020. "How Scary Are Food Scares? Evidence from Animal Disease Outbreaks," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 283-306, June.
    2. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    3. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.
    4. Olga Isengildina Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2024. "What do we know about the value and market impact of the US Department of Agriculture reports?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 698-736, June.
    5. R. Karina Gallardo & B. Wade Brorsen & Jayson Lusk, 2010. "Prediction markets: an experimental approach to forecasting cattle on feed," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(3), pages 414-426, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    2. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.
    3. Colling, Phil L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Zulauf, Carl R., 1991. "The Reaction Of Livestock Futures Prices To New Information," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271203, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Does The Market Anticipate Smoothing In Usda Crop Production Forecasts?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20145, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Dhuyvetter, Kevin C. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Parcell, Joseph L., 1997. "The Effect of USDA Cattle on Feed Reports on Feeder Cattle Futures Prices," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35751, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Ward, Clement E., 1980. "Toward A Performance Evaluation Of The Carcass Beef Market - Weak Form Test Of The Efficient Markets Model," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, July.
    8. Michael K Adjemian & Robert Johansson & Andrew McKenzie & Michael Thomsen, 2018. "Was the Missing 2013 WASDE Missed?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 653-671, December.
    9. Choi, Jin Wook, 1982. "An analysis of price responses to public information: a case study of the USDA corn crop forecasts," ISU General Staff Papers 198201010800008030, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Aulerich, Nicole M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Nelson, Carl H., 2007. "The Impact of Measurement Error on Estimates of the Price Reaction to USDA Crop Reports," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37579, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    11. Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "The impact of Russian sanctions on the return of agricultural commodity futures in the EU," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    13. Taylor, Christopher W., 2012. "Market Reactions to USDA Reports: State Analysis of Corn Price Response," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124661, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Olga Isengildina Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2024. "What do we know about the value and market impact of the US Department of Agriculture reports?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 698-736, June.
    15. Colling, Phil L. & Irwin, Scott H., 1989. "The Reaction Of Live Hog Futures Prices To Usda Hogs And Pigs Reports," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270490, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Cox, Thomas L. & Briggs, Hugh, 1989. "Heteroscedastic Tobit Models: The Household Demand for Fresh Potatoes Revisited," Staff Papers 200482, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    17. Koontz, Stephen R. & Hudson, Michael A. & Purcell, Wayne D., 1984. "The Impact Of Hog And Pig Reports On Live Hog Futures Prices: An Event Study Of Market Efficiency," 1984 Annual Meeting, August 5-8, Ithaca, New York 278981, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    19. Lusk, Jayson L., 2016. "From Farm Income to Food Consumption: Valuing USDA Data Products," C-FARE Reports 266593, Council on Food, Agricultural, and Resource Economics (C-FARE).
    20. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L. & Gomez, Jennifer K., 2008. "The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 89-103, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance;

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:45046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.