IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v39y2007i2p145-152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Options-based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves

Author

Listed:
  • Thorsten Egelkraut
  • Philip Garcia
  • Bruce Sherrick

Abstract

The reported analysis examines a simultaneous estimation option-based approach to forecast futures prices in the presence of daily price limit moves. The procedure explicitly allows for changing implied volatilities by estimating the implied futures price and the implied volatility simultaneously. Using futures and futures options data for three agricultural commodities, it is found that the simultaneous estimation approach accounts for the abrupt changes in implied volatility associated with limit moves and generates more accurate price forecasts than conventional methods that rely on only one implied variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Egelkraut & Philip Garcia & Bruce Sherrick, 2007. "Options-based forecasts of futures prices in the presence of limit moves," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 145-152.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:2:p:145-152
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500427478
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500427478
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840500427478?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J & Seguin, Paul J, 1994. "Volume, Volatility, and New York Stock Exchange Trading Halts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 183-214, March.
    2. Brennan, Michael J., 1986. "A theory of price limits in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-233, June.
    3. Tucker, Alan L., 1987. "Foreign exchange option prices as predictors of equilibrium forward exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 283-294, September.
    4. Ramaswamy, Krishna & Sundaresan, Suresh M, 1985. "The Valuation of Options on Futures Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1319-1340, December.
    5. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. "Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-528, June.
    6. Patell, James M. & Wolfson, Mark A., 1979. "Anticipated information releases reflected in call option prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 117-140, August.
    7. Kim, Kenneth & Rhee, S Ghon, 1997. "Price Limit Performance: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 885-899, June.
    8. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1994. "Circuit Breakers and Market Volatility: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 237-254, March.
    9. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    11. William Pedersen, 1998. "Capturing all the information in foreign currency option prices: solving for one versus two implied variables," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(12), pages 1679-1683.
    12. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    13. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    14. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1996. "The Creation and Resolution of Market Uncertainty: The Impact of Information Releases on Implied Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 513-539, December.
    15. Donders, Monique W. M. & Vorst, Ton C. F., 1996. "The impact of firm specific news on implied volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1447-1461, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 73-87, April.
    2. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Jennifer K. Gomez, 2008. "Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 473-490.
    3. Chuang Yuang Lin & Dar Hsin Chen & Chin Yu Tsai, 2011. "The limitation of monotonicity property of option prices: an empirical evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(23), pages 3103-3113.
    4. Xinyue He & Teresa Serra, 2022. "Are price limits cooling off agricultural futures markets?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(5), pages 1724-1746, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. James Brugler & Oliver Linton, 2014. "Single stock circuit breakers on the London Stock Exchange: do they improve subsequent market quality?," CeMMAP working papers CWP07/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    5. Reiffen, David & Buyuksahin, Bahattin, 2010. "The puzzle of privately-imposed price limits: are the limits imposed by financial exchanges effective?," MPRA Paper 35927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Halim Dabbou & Ahmed Silem, 2014. "Price limit and financial contagion: protection or illusion? The tunisian stock exchange case," Post-Print hal-00925424, HAL.
    7. Chou, Pin-Huang & Lin, Mei-Chen & Yu, Min-Teh, 2005. "Risk aversion and price limits in futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 173-184, September.
    8. Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Azhar Mohamad, 2019. "Circuit breakers as market stability levers: A survey of research, praxis, and challenges," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 1130-1169, July.
    9. Halim DABBOU & Ahmed SILEM, 2014. "Price Limit and Financial Contagion: Protection or Illusion? The Tunisian Stock Exchange Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 54-70.
    10. Jeffrey Jones & Jenny Gu & Pu Liu, 2014. "Do dividend initiations signal a reduction in risk? Evidence from the option market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 143-158, January.
    11. Cho, David D. & Russell, Jeffrey & Tiao, George C. & Tsay, Ruey, 2003. "The magnet effect of price limits: evidence from high-frequency data on Taiwan Stock Exchange," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 133-168, February.
    12. James Brugler & Oliver Linton, 2014. "Circuit Breakers on the London Stock Exchange: Do they improve subsequent market quality?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1453, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Tang, Siyuan, 2023. "Price limit performance: New evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China's ChiNext market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Cheng Xiang & Jing Lu, 2023. "Magnet effects of circuit breakers in electronic order‐driven markets: Evidence from China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1450-1469, April.
    15. Cheoljun Eom & Steven J. Jordan & Woo‐Baik Lee & Jong Won Park, 2020. "Programs trades and trade regulation: An evidence of the Korean securities market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 44-66, January.
    16. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    17. Wong, Woon K. & Chang, Matthew C. & Tu, Anthony H., 2009. "Are magnet effects caused by uninformed traders? Evidence from Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 28-40, January.
    18. Daphne Yan Du & Qianqiu Liu & S. Ghon Rhee, 2009. "An Analysis of the Magnet Effect under Price Limits," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(1‐2), pages 83-110, March.
    19. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    20. Kenneth A. Kim & Jungsoo Park, 2010. "Why Do Price Limits Exist in Stock Markets? A Manipulation†Based Explanation," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 16(2), pages 296-318, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:2:p:145-152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.