IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v51y2020ics0275531919305781.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of Russian sanctions on the return of agricultural commodity futures in the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Klomp, Jeroen

Abstract

During the last conflict between Russia and the Ukraine in 2014, the EU imposed various multilateral sanctions on Russia. As a response, Russia retaliated these measures by banning the agricultural imports from the EU. This study explores whether the retaliation sanctions taken by Russia were already expected by investors or came as a complete surprise. For this purpose, I compare the impact of sanction-related news before and after the official announcement of these sanctions by president Putin in August 2014 on the weekly return of a number of agricultural commodity futures traded at two European commodity exchanges. A newly created indicator on sanction-related news is used that is based on the number of articles that have been published in the major European newspapers containing information about the import ban. The main findings clearly point out that before the imposition of the boycott it was already partly anticipated. The publication of sanction-related news caused a significant drop in the futures return of a number of banned agricultural commodities in the weeks prior to the formal announcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "The impact of Russian sanctions on the return of agricultural commodity futures in the EU," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:51:y:2020:i:c:s0275531919305781
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.101073
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531919305781
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.101073?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Doms & Norman J. Morin, 2004. "Consumer sentiment, the economy, and the news media," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    3. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf, 1996. "Reaction of Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Futures Prices to USDA "Export Inspections" Reports," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 127-136.
    4. Philip Garcia, 2004. "A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(3), pages 235-272, September.
    5. Joe L. Parcell & Nicholas G. Kalaitzandonakes, 2004. "Do Agricultural Commodity Prices Respond to Bans against Bioengineered Crops?," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 52(2), pages 201-209, July.
    6. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    7. Andrew M. McKenzie, 2008. "Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 351-366.
    8. Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2008. "Commodities and the Market Price of Risk," IMF Working Papers 2008/221, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Pierre Boulanger & Hasan Dudu & Emanuele Ferrari & George Philippidis, 2016. "Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri-food Import Ban," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 272-291, June.
    10. Florinskaya Yulia & Mkrtchian N., 2016. "Migration in russia: old trends and new problems," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 36-40, December.
    11. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Paul M. Patterson & B. Wade Brorsen, 1993. "USDA Export Sales Report: Is It News?," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 15(2), pages 367-378.
    13. Wang, Yiwei & Wang, Ke & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "The impacts of economic sanctions on exchange rate volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 58-65.
    14. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    15. Wolfram Schlenker & Sofia B. Villas-Boas, 2009. "Consumer and Market Responses to Mad Cow Disease," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1140-1152.
    16. Manuel Hoffmann & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The pro-Russian conflict and its impact on stock returns in Russia and the Ukraine," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 61-73, January.
    17. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    18. Yanhong H. Jin & Gabriel J. Power & Levan Elbakidze, 2008. "The Impact of North American BSE Events on Live Cattle Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1279-1286.
    19. Daniel W. Drezner, 2015. "Targeted Sanctions in a World of Global Finance," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 755-764, August.
    20. Colin A. Carter & Carl A. Galopin, 1993. "Informational Content of Government Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(3), pages 711-718.
    21. Iikka Korhonen & Riikka Nuutilainen, 2016. "A monetary policy rule for Russia, or is it rules?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 28-45.
    22. B. Wade Brorsen & Seung-Ryong Yang, 1994. "Nonlinear Dynamics And The Distribution Of Daily Stock Index Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 187-203, June.
    23. Daniel A. Summer & Rolf A. E. Mueller, 1989. "Are Harvest Forecasts News? USDA Announcements and Futures Market Reactions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(1), pages 1-8.
    24. Radkovskaya E.V. & Radkoskii G.V., 2016. "Why does not develop the russian regions?," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 16(2), pages 100-110.
    25. Egorov D.A. (Егоров, Д.А.) & Perevyshina E.A. (Перевышина, Е.А.), 2016. "Modelling of Inflationary Processes in Russia [Моделирование Инфляционных Процессов В России]," Working Papers 2138, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    26. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    27. Matthias Bank & Martin Larch & Georg Peter, 2011. "Google search volume and its influence on liquidity and returns of German stocks," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(3), pages 239-264, September.
    28. Schlenker, Wolfram & Villas-Boas, Sofia, 2009. "AJAE appendix for ‘Consumer and Market Responses to Mad-Cow Disease’," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1-12, March.
    29. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Sanctions and the Russian stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 150-162.
    30. Rodney G. Robenstein & Walter N. Thurman, 1996. "Health Risk and the Demand for Red Meat: Evidence from Futures Markets," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 629-641.
    31. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2016. "Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 295-308.
    32. R. Xie & O. Isengildina-Massa & G. P. Dwyer & J. L. Sharp, 2016. "The impact of public and semi-public information on cotton futures market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(36), pages 3416-3431, August.
    33. Emre Hatipoglu & Dursun Peksen, 2018. "Economic Sanctions and Banking Crises in Target Economies," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 171-189, February.
    34. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    35. Roache, Shaun K. & Rossi, Marco, 2010. "The effects of economic news on commodity prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 377-385, August.
    36. Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova, 2017. "The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 537-552, October.
    37. McKenzie, Andrew M., 2008. "AJAE Appendix: Pre-Harvest Expectations for Corn: The Informational Content of USDA Reports on New Crop Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-2.
    38. Vlastakis, Nikolaos & Markellos, Raphael N., 2012. "Information demand and stock market volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1808-1821.
    39. Sai Liang & Sen Guo & Joshua P. Newell & Shen Qu & Yu Feng & Anthony S.F. Chiu & Ming Xu, 2016. "Global Drivers of Russian Timber Harvest," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 20(3), pages 515-525, June.
    40. repec:zbw:bofitp:2016_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin, 1990. "The Reaction of Live Hog Futures Prices to USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 72(1), pages 84-94.
    42. Fabio L. Mattos & Rodrigo L. F. Silveira, 2016. "Futures Price Response to Crop Reports in Grain Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(10), pages 923-942, October.
    43. Baburin V. L. & Zemtsov S. P., 2016. "Factors of Patent Activity in Russian Regions," World of economics and management / Vestnik NSU. Series: Social and Economics Sciences, Socionet, vol. 16(1), pages 86-100.
    44. Gurvich, Evsey & Prilepskiy, Ilya, 2015. "The impact of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 359-385.
    45. Phil L. Colling & Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf, 1992. "Weak- and Strong-Form Rationality Tests of Market Analysts' Expectations of USDA Hogs and Pigs Reports," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 263-270.
    46. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bai, Yizhou & Xue, Cheng, 2021. "An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    2. Gaete, Michael & Herrera, Rodrigo, 2023. "Diversification benefits of commodities in portfolio allocation: A dynamic factor copula approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    3. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    4. Bosch, David & Smimou, K., 2022. "Traders’ motivation and hedging pressure in commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    5. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aharon, David Y. & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2018. "What drives the demand for information in the commodity market?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 532-543.
    2. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
    3. Semen Son-Turan, 2016. "The Impact of Investor Sentiment on the "Leverage Effect"," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 8(1), pages 4-18, April.
    4. Semen Son Turan, 2014. "Internet Search Volume and Stock Return Volatility: The Case of Turkish Companies," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 6(6), pages 317-328.
    5. Massimo PERI & Daniela VANDONE & Lucia BALDI, 2012. "Internet, noise trading and commodity prices," Departmental Working Papers 2012-07, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    6. Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela & Baldi, Lucia, 2014. "Internet, noise trading and commodity futures prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 82-89.
    7. Hervé, Fabrice & Zouaoui, Mohamed & Belvaux, Bertrand, 2019. "Noise traders and smart money: Evidence from online searches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 141-149.
    8. Ying, Jiahui & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2017. "A Temporal Impact Assessment Method for the Informational Content of USDA Reports in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258201, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Kao, Lanfeng & Chen, Anlin & Lu, Cheng-Shou, 2022. "Retail investor attention and IPO prices with a pre-IPO market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 416-432.
    10. María José Ayala & Nicolás Gonzálvez-Gallego & Rocío Arteaga-Sánchez, 2024. "Google search volume index and investor attention in stock market: a systematic review," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, December.
    11. Gao, Yang & Wang, Yaojun & Wang, Chao & Liu, Chao, 2018. "Internet attention and information asymmetry: Evidence from Qihoo 360 search data on the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 802-811.
    12. Tang, Wenbin & Zhu, Lili, 2017. "How security prices respond to a surge in investor attention: Evidence from Google Search of ADRs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 38-50.
    13. Cai, Wenwu & Lu, Jing, 2019. "Investors’ financial attention frequency and trading activity," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Investor attention and global market returns during the COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    15. Huang, Tzu-Lun, 2018. "The puzzling media effect in the Chinese stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 129-146.
    16. Owain Ap Gwilym & Iftekhar Hasan & Qingwei Wang & Ru Xie, 2016. "In Search of Concepts: The Effects of Speculative Demand on Stock Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), pages 427-449, June.
    17. Matthew Houser & Berna Karali, 2020. "How Scary Are Food Scares? Evidence from Animal Disease Outbreaks," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 283-306, June.
    18. Moussa, Faten & BenOuda, Olfa & Delhoumi, Ezzeddine, 2017. "The use of open source internet to analysis and predict stock market trading volume," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 399-411.
    19. Chen, Zhongdong & Craig, Karen Ann, 2023. "Active attention, retail investor base, and stock returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    20. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Exploring the Driving Forces of the Bitcoin Exchange Rate Dynamics: An EGARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 89445, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural commodities; Sanctions; Pro-Russian conflict; Futures return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:51:y:2020:i:c:s0275531919305781. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.