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Are Farrowing Intentions Rational Forecasts?

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  • David E. Runkle

Abstract

This paper tests whether quarterly data on hog farmers' sow-farrowing intentions released in Hogs and Pigs are rational forecasts of actual farrowings. The empirical results show that neither one- nor two-quarter-ahead intentions are rational forecasts. Econometric methods and the implications of the empirical results for the rational expectations hypothesis are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Runkle, 1991. "Are Farrowing Intentions Rational Forecasts?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 594-600.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:73:y:1991:i:3:p:594-600.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1242812
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2008. "To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 73-87, April.
    2. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado & Jose Maria Casado & Jose Maria Labeaga, 2016. "Envy and Habits: Panel Data Estimates of Interdependent Preferences," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(4), pages 443-469, August.
    3. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.
    4. Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Does The Market Anticipate Smoothing In Usda Crop Production Forecasts?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20145, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Diersen, Matthew A., 2001. "South Dakota's Hog Market: Developments and Prospects," Economics Staff Papers 32021, South Dakota State University, Department of Economics.

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